經濟廣角:倫敦金融城浮現明顯回升跡象

'The City' Gains Footing, Gingerly
Signs of a rebound are evident in the City, the British equivalent of Wall Street. But in the wake of the financial crisis, the global banking hub is smaller, somewhat chastened and still uncertain as to how new rules and regulations may affect its future.

In the past six months, the mood has brightened significantly here, mirroring similar rebounds in other financial centers like New York and Tokyo. There has been a rapid rise in bank profits, a return of fat compensation packages and an uptick in deal chatter. And, given the current easy-money environment, banks that have gotten through the worst of the crisis now find themselves coining money, particularly in the fixed-income, foreign-exchange and commodities markets.

'The recent economic crisis has had a significant impact on London. Jobs have been lost and businesses have been forced to downsize,' said Stuart Fraser, policy chairman at the City of London Corp. But, he added, with confidence returning to the U.K. capital 'there are significant grounds for optimism.'

The City of London remains a big player on the global financial scene -- and in some areas is the biggest. London accounts for 36% of global foreign-exchange trading: the next-biggest player, New York, is responsible for 14% of turnover, according to International Financial Services London, a private-sector group that promotes the U.K. financial industry. The City was the leading center for international bond issues, with 30% of the global total. And many financial firms are seeing business improve. Barclays PLC, the large British bank, last month reported a 10% rise in profits for the first half of 2009 compared with the year-earlier period, to GBP 1.9 billion ($3.1 billion).

The improvement in financial markets globally has provided a boost to the City's hedge-fund community, which generally is seeing performance recover and investors return after having headed for the exits in droves late last year.

Assets managed by U.K.-based managers stood at $295.77 billion as of the end of July, up about 12% from the end of December, according to , owned by Channel Capital Group Inc. However, they are still 34% lower than their $448.1 billion levels at the end of 2007.

Still, the revival of the City's fortunes owes a huge amount to temporary measures by the Bank of England and other central banks, which are providing billions upon billions of pounds of virtually free money to banks.

When those measures eventually go into reverse, so may profits.

And some people fear excessive zeal by regulators could seriously damage London as a financial center. They include Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, who is arguing for a lighter touch on financial regulation, even as the leaders of his opposition Conservative Party are seeking a more vigorous clampdown.

作爲英國的華爾街，倫敦金融城已浮現明顯的回升跡象。在金融危機過後，這個全球銀行業樞紐規模縮小了，變乖了，而且尚不清楚新的規定和監管會對其未來造成怎樣的影響。

過去的6個月，金融城的氣氛明顯活躍起來，與紐約和東京等其他金融中心情形相仿。銀行利潤急劇增長，豐厚的薪酬計劃捲土重來，交易傳言日益增多。此外，考慮到目前寬鬆的信貸環境，渡過危機最糟糕階段的各家銀行目前發現他們財源茂盛，尤其是在固定收益、外匯和大宗商品市場。

倫敦金融城公司(City of London Corp.)董事長弗蘭瑟(Stuart Fraser)表示，最近這場經濟危機給倫敦造成了極大影響，導致工作崗位流失，迫使企業縮小規模。但他補充稱，隨着倫敦重拾信心，金融城有充足的理由對前景感到樂觀。

倫敦金融城仍然是全球金融領域的一支重要力量──在一些領域仍是規模最大的。據推廣英國金融行業的私營部門組織倫敦國際金融服務公司(International Financial Services, London)統計，倫敦佔據了全球外匯交易成交量的36%，而排名第二的紐約所佔比重爲14%。倫敦金融城還是主要的國際債券發行中心，佔據了全球發債總額的30%。很多金融公司的業務正在好轉。英國最大的銀行巴克萊(Barclays)上個月公佈，今年上半年收益同比增長10%，達到19億英鎊（約合31億美元）。

全球金融市場的復甦給倫敦金融城對衝基金行業帶來了提振，金融城的對衝基金普遍業績回升，而在去年年底蜂擁撤資之後，投資者已經開始迴歸。

據Channel Capital Group旗下跟蹤對衝基金的網站統計，截至7月底，英國基金公司管理的資產總額爲2,957.7億美元，較去年12月底增長約12%。不過，目前的資產總額仍然較2007年底時的4,481億美元減少了34%。

當然，金融城命運峯迴路轉很大程度上得益於英國央行和其他央行所採取的暫時性措施，這些央行不斷向銀行提供了數十億英鎊實際上免費的資金。

當這些措施最終結束的時候，或許銀行利潤也會隨之下降。

一些人士擔心，監管部門的過度狂熱可能會嚴重損害到倫敦的金融中心地位。這些人中就包括倫敦市長鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)。約翰遜認爲，金融監管應當採取柔性手段，雖然他所屬的保守黨領袖們正尋求對金融業施加更多的限制。