巴西足球的詛咒 世界人民的噱頭

Two national tragedies struck Brazil late last week. In the city of Belo Horizonte, an overpass collapsed, killing two people. The following day, Brazil played Colombia in the quarter final of the World Cup. Brazil won the match – but Neymar, the team’s star and national posterboy, suffered a back injury that will keep him out of the rest of the tournament.

上週末，巴西發生了兩場全國性災難。在貝洛奧裏藏特(Belo Horizonte)市，一座過街天橋坍塌，造成兩人死亡。第二天，巴西隊在世界盃足球賽四分之一決賽中對陣哥倫比亞，雖然贏得了比賽，但該隊明星、全國海報男孩內馬爾(Neymar)後背受傷，將缺席餘下的比賽。

It is fair to say that, of the two incidents, Neymar’s fractured vertebrae has attracted far more media anguish than the shoddy workmanship that cost the lives of two of his fellow-citizens. Brazil seems to be living by the maxim of Bill Shankly, the legendary football manager best known for his time at Liverpool, who famously remarked: “Some people believe football is a matter of life and death . . . I can assure you, it is much, much more important than that.”

可以說，在這兩起事故中，內馬爾椎骨骨裂在媒體上引發的痛苦之情，遠甚於奪走兩名巴西人生命的豆腐渣工程。巴西似乎踐行着比爾•香克利(Bill Shankly)的著名格言：“有些人相信足球事關生死……我可以向你保證，它比生死重要得多。”香克利是有着傳奇色彩的足球教練，最爲人知的是帶領利物浦隊的那段時光。

The two incidents show why Brazil’s brilliance at football can be a curse, as well as a blessing. The reasons to celebrate the country’s footballing prowess are obvious. Brazilian teams have given joy to millions all over the world. The yellow jersey of the Seleção, even more than the Amazon or the beaches of Rio de Janeiro, is the nation’s calling card. But Brazil’s brilliant football has sometimes seemed to serve not as an inspiration to brilliance in other areas of life – but as an alternative.

這兩起事故表明，爲何巴西出色的足球表現既是福分，也可能成爲詛咒。慶祝該國高超足球技藝的理由是顯而易見的。巴西隊給全世界數百萬觀衆帶來了歡樂。巴西的名片是巴西隊黃色隊服，其地位甚至高於亞馬遜河或者里約熱內盧(Rio de Janeiro)的海灘。但光彩奪目的巴西足球，有時似乎未能鼓舞該國在其他生活領域創造輝煌，反而成爲一種替代品。

For a time, last year, it seemed as if Brazilians had finally tired of this game. During the Confederations Cup, a warm-up event for this year’s tournament, there were mass protests against the vast spending on staging the World Cup.

去年，巴西人似乎曾一度最終厭倦了足球運動。在爲今年世界盃賽熱身的聯合會杯(Confederations Cup)期間，巴西發生了大規模抗議，反對舉辦世界盃的鉅額支出。

While millions of Brazilians still live in shanty towns – without access to decent sanitation, healthcare, education and transport – Brazil had chosen to pour more than $11bn into building glistening new stadiums, as well as all the other facilities demanded by Fifa, the international football federation. The demonstrators called for “Fifa-standard” schools and hospitals, as well as the stadiums.

儘管數以百萬計的巴西人仍住在破爛的貧民窟——沒有衛生、醫療、教育和交通設施可言——但巴西決定投入逾110億美元興建嶄新的體育場館，以及國際足聯(Fifa)要求的其它所有設施。示威者要求，除了體育場館之外，政府也應建造“Fifa標準的”學校和醫院。

However, predictions that these protests would be repeated on a similar scale during the World Cup itself have proved wrong. Instead, Brazil has become caught up in the melodrama of the football.

然而，世界盃舉行期間還將發生類似規模抗議的預測，已被證明是錯誤的。相反，巴西已完全沉浸於這場足球“煽情劇”。

An absence of mass social unrest should not be a cause for regret. Brazilians have every right to take pride in their team and the staging of the tournament – which, despite the tragic accident in Belo Horizonte, has generally gone well. The risk is that the issues raised by last year’s demonstrations may be shoved to one side by the footballing euphoria.

沒有發生大規模社會動盪，不應成爲遺憾的理由。巴西人有充分理由爲巴西隊的表現和賽事的舉辦感到驕傲，儘管貝洛奧裏藏特事發生了那起悲劇事故，但賽事總體上舉辦得不錯。風險在於，去年示威所提出的問題可能被足球狂歡推到一邊。

The protests last year were interesting and important because they highlighted the discontent and aspirations of millions of ordinary people. The Brazilian government’s reaction was also impressively mature. While the Turkish government, which was hit with similar social unrest at about the same time, reacted with hostility and conspiracy-theories, Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s president, acknowledged the legitimacy of the demonstrators’ demands and promised to work harder to meet their aspirations.

去年的抗議既值得關注，又有重要意義，因爲它凸顯了數以百萬計的普通民衆的不滿和願望。巴西政府的反應也很成熟，令人印象深刻。幾乎在同一時間，土耳其也發生了類似的社會動盪，該國政府的反應充滿了敵意，還搬出陰謀論作爲擋箭牌。但是，巴西總統迪爾瑪•羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)承認示威者要求的正當性，並承諾加倍努力滿足他們的願望。

Ms Rousseff is up for re-election this October. But her chances of victory have been clouded by widespread doubts over her ability to deliver the improvements in living standards that she has promised. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – Ms Rousseff’s charismatic predecessor – was able to boast about economic growth that averaged more than 4 per cent a year during his time in office, and rapid reductions in inequality. But excitement about the potential of Brazil has dimmed. The country is expected to grow by less than 2 per cent this year – feeble for a nation that aspires to be a dynamic emerging economy. Laments about shoddy administration and corruption are commonplace.

羅塞夫今年10月將參加連任競選。但是，她曾承諾改善巴西民衆的生活水平，但她兌現該承諾的能力受到廣泛質疑，這給她競選獲勝的前景蒙上了陰影。魅力超凡的路易斯•伊納西奧•盧拉•達席爾瓦(Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva)是羅塞夫的前任總統，有能力誇耀其任期內高於4%的年均經濟增長率，以及不平等狀況的迅速減輕。但目前，巴西潛力引發的興奮已黯淡下來。預計該國今年增長率低於2%——對於一個希望成爲動力十足的新興經濟體的國家而言是不足的。對於劣政和腐敗的失望情緒十分常見。

Without a sustained record of achievement, Ms Rousseff badly needs a successful World Cup. Her appearance at the opening match of the tournament provoked boos and obscene chanting. Since then, she has kept her head down.

在沒有連續取得成就的情況下，羅塞夫急切地需要世界盃足球賽圓滿成功。她在世界盃開幕式上亮相時招來了噓聲和謾罵。此後她一直保持低姿態。

The president, however, is certain to reappear at the World Cup final in Rio on July 13. This time, she will be flanked by some impressive friends. Brazil will play host to a Brics summit, which has been scheduled for just after the World Cup – reportedly at the insistence of Xi Jinping, China’s football-loving president. A “power photo” with the leaders of Russia, China, South Africa and India could serve as a perfect opening to Ms Rousseff’s presidential election campaign.

然而，這位總統肯定會在7月13日的世界盃決賽中再次亮相。這一次，將有一些引人注目的朋友陪她出現。巴西將主辦金磚國家(Brics)峯會，在世界盃結束之後立即開會——據稱如此安排是在喜歡足球的中國國家主席習近平的堅持下做出的。與俄羅斯、中國、南非和印度領導人的“大人物合影”，可能成爲羅塞夫總統競選活動的完美開局。

There are, however, two big risks with this strategy – one to do with football, and one to do with politics. Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India, who will come to the Brics summit, has just been elected by capitalising on the Indian public’s dissatisfaction with slow growth and corruption. The parallels with Brazil are uncomfortably close and the emergence of a Modi-like candidate in Brazil would be very threatening to Ms Rousseff.

然而，這一策略存在兩大風險，一個與足球有關，一個與政治有關。即將出席金磚國家峯會的印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)，是剛剛利用印度公衆對低增長和腐敗的不滿而當選的。印度與巴西異常相像，巴西若出現一位類似莫迪的候選人，將對羅塞夫構成很大的威脅。

Comparisons between the political economies of India and Brazil may prove a little abstract for most voters. But nobody will miss the symbolism of events on the football pitch. And, here too, things look dicey. Without Neymar, Brazil could easily lose to Germany in the semi-final tonight. The only thing worse than that would be to lose, in the final itself, to Argentina – Brazil’s neighbours and bitter rivals.

印度和巴西的政治經濟狀況對比，對大多數選民而言可能被證明有點兒抽象。但誰也不會錯過足球賽勝負的象徵意義。在這方面，形勢也不大確定。沒有了內馬爾，巴西隊可能在半決賽上輸給德國隊。唯一比這更糟糕的，將是在決賽中輸給鄰國、死對頭阿根廷。

Luiz Felipe Scolari, Brazil’s coach, has said that winning the World Cup, is “the minimum requirement”. (Brazil also wants to play with style.) Win or lose, it would be wonderful if Brazil could take Mr Scolari’s refusal to accept second best – and apply it to other areas of life.

巴西隊教練路易斯•費利佩•斯科拉里(Luiz Felipe Scolari)表示，捧得世界盃是“最低要求”。（巴西隊還想踢出瀟灑。）無論是贏是輸，如果巴西能像斯科拉里那樣拒絕接受次佳地位，並將這一原則應用於其他生活領域，那就太好了。