刺眼的太陽能市場預測 Solar energy glaring assumptions

In the sci-fi film Sunshine, a spaceship’s crew goes insane after staring at the sun for too long. Those hoping for profits from solar power investments might also go mad. While healthy solar panel demand does catch the eye, prices have fallen more than a fifth during the past two years due to a glut of manufacturing capacity.

在科幻電影《太陽浩劫》(Sunshine)裏，飛船上的宇航員因爲盯着太陽看了太久而精神失常。那些渴望從投資太陽能發電而獲利的人可能也會發瘋。儘管對太陽能電池板的旺盛需求的確引人注目，但製造產能嚴重過剩導致過去兩年裏價格下降逾五分之一。

Solar installations should keep growing, another 40 per cent to 81.4 gigawatts before the end of the decade. Much of this expansion will come in the US, the second-largest solar market. One driver for panel demand there has been a federal investment tax credit for 30 per cent of the spend. Originally meant to end this year, a last-minute reprieve by Congress extended it for another three years — good news for panel makers.

太陽能發電裝機容量應該會持續增長，在本十年結束之前新增40%，至81.4吉瓦。這一擴張有很大一部分將發生在全球第二大太陽能市場——美國。刺激美國市場太陽能電池板需求的一大動力是30%的聯邦投資稅收抵免。該計劃原定今年截止，但美國國會在最後一刻將其延長了三年，這對太陽能電池板製造商來說是個好消息。

Yet volumes will still need to grow faster than solar panel prices are falling. Forward valuations for companies in the New York Stock Exchange’s Solar index have compressed; the index’s price/earnings ratio has dropped nearly a third this year to 18 times, suggesting the market does not yet believe that prices will stop falling.

儘管如此，太陽能電池板的銷售量增長仍需要跑贏價格下跌。紐交所(NYSE)太陽能指數成分股公司的預期估值已經縮水，今年以來該股指的市盈率已下跌近三分之一，至18倍，似乎表明市場尚不認爲價格將停止下跌。

Excess capacity in China is usually blamed. Worldwide, demand this year for solar panels at 66GW should still trail well behind capacity of 75-80GW, says renewables specialist BNEF. Most makers of the polysilicon for these panels lose money on every kilogramme they sell; spot prices now run at $13 per kilogramme. News this year that polysilicon producers such as REC Silicon had closed US factories understandably improved spirits, lifting shares of US-listed Chinese silicon maker Daqo and Korea’s OCI.

這通常被歸咎於中國的產能過剩。據可再生能源專家BNEF介紹，今年全球66吉瓦的太陽能電池板需求，仍將遠遠落後於75-80吉瓦的產能。用於太陽能電池板的多晶硅的多數生產商，每銷售一公斤都在賠錢；目前的現貨價格是每公斤13美元。難怪今年有關多晶硅生產商（如REC Silicon）關閉美國工廠的消息令人振奮，此類消息推高了在美國上市的中國多晶硅廠商大全能源(Daqo)和韓國OCI的股價。

Matters could still get worse, though. Norway’s Elkem, now owned by Bluestar Group, a subsidiary of ChemChina, can make polysilicon profitably even at current prices. Demand from China, the largest market for installations, is slowing and represents little of future growth, according to IHS. More heat and less light required.

然而，情況可能還會變得更糟。目前由中國化工(ChemChina)的子公司藍星集團(Bluestar Group)所有的挪威埃肯公司(Elkem)，即便以當前的價格生產多晶硅尚能盈利。據研究機構IHS表示，全球最大太陽能裝機容量市場——中國的需求正在放緩，且未來增長預計將微不足道。顯然這個市場需要多一點熱度，少一點刺眼的光。