人工智能和機器人可能釀成大規模失業

Scientists have warned that rapid strides in the development of artificial intelligence and robotics threatens the prospect of mass unemployment, affecting everyone from drivers to sex workers.

科學家們警告稱，人工智能和機器人技術的快步發展可能釀成大規模失業，影響從司機到性工作者的各行各業勞動者。

Intelligent machines will soon replace human workers in all sectors of the economy, senior computer scientists told the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in Washington at the weekend.

週末在華盛頓舉行的美國科學促進會(AAAS)會議上，資深計算機科學家表示，智能機器很快將在各個經濟部門取代人類勞動者。

“We are approaching the time when machines will be able to outperform humans at almost any task,” said Moshe Vardi, computer science professor at Rice University in Texas. “Society needs to confront this question before it is upon us: if machines are capable of doing almost any work humans can do, what will humans do?

“我們正在接近這樣一個時刻，機器將能夠在幾乎所有任務上超越人類，”德克薩斯州萊斯大學(Rice University)計算機科學教授摩西瓦迪(Moshe Vardi)表示，“在這個時刻來臨之前，社會需要直面一個問題：如果人類能夠做的工作，機器幾乎都能夠做，那麼人類該做些什麼？

“A typical answer is that we will be free to pursue leisure activities,” Prof Vardi said. “[But] I do not find the prospect of leisure-only life appealing. I believe that work is essential to human wellbeing.”

“一個典型的回答是，我們將自由地從事休閒活動，”瓦迪教授表示，“但是我不覺得只有休閒的人生前景有吸引力。我相信工作對於人類的福祉是不可或缺的。”

“AI is moving rapidly from academic research into the real world,” said Bart Selman, professor of computer science at Cornell University. “Computers are starting to ‘hear’ and ‘see’ as humans do... can start to move and operate among us autonomously.” He said companies such as Google, Facebook, IBM and Microsoft were scaling up investments in AI systems to billions of dollars a year.

“人工智能正從學術研究快速進入現實世界，”康奈爾大學(Cornell University)計算機科學教授巴特帠爾曼(Bart Selman)表示，“計算機正開始像人類一樣‘聽’和‘看’……系統可以自主地移動和操作，躋身於人類行列。”他表示，谷歌(Google)、Facebook、IBM以及微軟(Microsoft)等公司紛紛加大對人工智能系統的投資，使其達到每年數十億美元。

Professors Vardi and Selman said governments — and society as a whole — were not facing up to the acceleration of AI and robotics research. Prof Selman helped draft an open letter issued last year by the Future of Life Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, urging policymakers to explore the risks associated with increasingly intelligent machines.

瓦迪教授和塞爾曼教授都表示，政府以及整個社會沒有正視人工智能和機器人研究的加速。塞爾曼教授去年曾幫助起草由馬薩諸塞州劍橋的生命未來研究所(Future of Life Institute)發出的一封公開信，敦促政策制定者探察智能含量越來越高的機器所帶來的風險。

Among the 10,000 or so signatories to the letter is Elon Musk, the tech entrepreneur whose company Tesla Motors has a large AI research programme aimed at developing self-driving cars.

這封公開信有大約1萬人簽名，包括高科技企業家埃隆氠斯克(Elon Musk)，他旗下的特斯拉汽車公司(Tesla Motors)有一個大規模人工智能研究項目，旨在開發自動駕駛汽車。

Mr Musk will fund research at Cornell University “on keeping AI beneficial to humans”, said Prof Selman. The project will predict whether and, if so when, “super-intelligence” — all-round superiority of machine to human intelligence — might be achieved.

塞爾曼教授說，馬斯克將資助康奈爾大學以“確保人工智能造福於人類”爲課題的研究。該項目將預測“超級智能”（機器相對於人類智慧的全方位優勢）能否實現？如果答案是肯定的，它將在何時實現？

According to Prof Selman, one of the fastest advancing areas of AI is machine vision, and particularly facial recognition. “Facebook can recognise faces better than any of us,” he said. Machine vision is key to the self-driving vehicles that scientists predict will take over our roads in the next 25 years. Prof Vardi said automated driving would cut accidents by 90 per cent or more, compared with vehicles driven by error-prone people.

據塞爾曼教授介紹，人工智能進展最快的領域之一是機器視覺，尤其是人臉識別。“Facebook識別人臉的能力比任何人類都更好，”他說。機器視覺是自動駕駛汽車的關鍵；科學家們預測，此類車輛將在未來25年陸續上路。瓦迪教授稱，相比容易出錯的人類司機，自動駕駛將減少90%或更多的事故。

“With so many lives saved and injuries prevented, it would be hard morally for anyone to argue against it,” he said. Yet around 10 per cent of all US jobs involve driving a vehicle, he added, “and most of those will disappear”.

“如果能夠拯救那麼多人命，防止那麼多受傷，反對者在道德上將會很難說得過去，”他說。然而，他補充說，美國10%左右的工作崗位涉及駕駛車輛，“這些工作崗位中的大多數將會消失”。

Prof Vardi said it would be hard to think of any jobs that would not be vulnerable to robotics and AI — even sex workers. “Are you going to bet against sex robots?” he asked. “I’m not.”

瓦迪教授稱，面對日臻完善的機器人技術和人工智能，很難想象有任何工作不會面臨消失風險，就連性工作者也不例外。“你會打賭性機器人不可能盛行嗎？”他問道，“反正我不會。”