俄羅斯需要美國協助解決敘利亞問題

Last Friday’s US air strikes against Syria have dispelled any remaining illusions in Moscow about Donald Trump’s foreign policy .

上週五，美國對敘利亞實施的空襲打破了莫斯科方面對唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)外交政策殘留的一切幻想。

The Russian reaction to the use of force by the US president was strong but measured. Moscow condemned it as an “act of aggression”, but gave no order to Russian air defence units in Syria to intercept American missiles. Nor did the Kremlin cancel the forthcoming visit by secretary of state Rex Tillerson .

俄羅斯對於這位美國總統採取武力的反應強烈但謹慎。莫斯科方面譴責稱這是“侵略行爲”，但並沒有命令俄羅斯駐敘利亞的防空部門攔截美國導彈。克里姆林宮也沒有取消美國國務卿雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)訪問俄羅斯的安排。

Russian interpretations of Mr Trump’s volte face on Syria mostly focus on the domestic travails of the American president, who faces steadily ratcheting pressure over his associates’ dealings with Moscow. This is seen, in turn, as evidence of the influence of America’s “deep state”, which is inherently hostile to Russia. By reasserting US power on the global stage, the argument goes, Mr Trump has won a reprieve from his political opponents — but at the price of submitting to their foreign policy agenda.

俄羅斯對特朗普在敘利亞問題上態度大轉彎的解釋，主要集中在這位美國總統在國內面臨的難題上——因他的同僚們與莫斯科方面的接觸，特朗普正面臨着不斷升級的壓力。這進而被視爲美國“暗深勢力”(deep state)影響力的證據，該勢力集團對俄羅斯存在固有的敵視。該觀點認爲，通過重申美國在全球舞臺上的實力，特朗普從政治對手那裏贏得了緩刑——但卻是以服從後者的外交政策議程爲代價。

Ironically, by ordering direct action in Syria, Mr Trump has effectively done to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, what Mr Putin himself did to Barack Obama in September 2015 when he launched Russia’s military intervention in the Middle East. Now, both countries are actively engaged in Syria, pursuing only partially overlapping objectives.

諷刺的是，通過下令在敘利亞採取直接行動，特朗普實際上對俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)做了普京本人在2015年9月對巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)所做的事——當時普京發動了俄羅斯在中東的軍事幹預。如今，兩個國家都積極參與敘利亞局勢，追求只有部分重疊的目標。

The risk of a confrontation has increased since Friday, but, paradoxically, greater American involvement in Syria may also bring about closer US-Russian co-operation there, leading eventually to a political settlement and an end to the bloody six-year civil war.

自上週五以來，對抗風險增加，但矛盾的是，美國在敘利亞加大幹預可能也會帶來美俄在敘利亞問題上更緊密的合作，最終實現政治解決，終結6年的血腥內戰。

Mr Trump’s intervention could strengthen Moscow’s hand with respect to the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and to Iran and its client Hizbollah, both of whom have used the regime’s takeover of Aleppo to press for a complete victory, undermining Russian negotiation efforts. Russia needs a political solution in Syria — that is its only acceptable exit strategy — but its allies are prepared to fight until the bitter end.

特朗普的干預可能加強莫斯科對於敘利亞領導人巴沙爾?阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)、以及伊朗及其附庸真主黨(Hizbollah)的手段，二者都利用該政權奪回阿勒頗來強推一場徹底勝利，破壞了俄羅斯的談判努力。俄羅斯需要政治解決敘利亞問題——這是它唯一可以接受的退出策略——但其盟友準備戰鬥到最後。

Before Mr Trump put his finger on the scales, it had looked as if Mr Putin was facing a diplomatic stalemate, and that he was becoming a hostage to Mr Assad. This may now change.

在特朗普干涉前，普京似乎正面臨外交僵局，即將成爲阿薩德的人質。如今這一局面可能會改變。

It is not at all clear, of course, what Mr Trump will do next. More strikes on Syria may follow; the presence of US ground troops in the country may expand; and regime change in Damascus may displace the destruction of Isis as the US’s primary military and political objective.

當然，特朗普下一步會做什麼，完全不得而知。美國接下來可能會對敘利亞採取更多打擊；美國地面部隊在敘利亞的存在可能會擴大；大馬士革的政權更迭可能取代摧毀“伊拉克與黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)，成爲美國首要軍事和政治目標。

There are doubtless people in Washington counselling the president to move in that direction. Should they prevail, Russia will face the choice of humiliating defeat or conflict with America. This would be the most dangerous moment the world has known since the US’s nuclear stand-off with the Soviet Union over Cuba in 1962.

華盛頓肯定有人建議特朗普朝這個方向推進。一旦他們佔了上風，俄羅斯將面對抉擇——要麼選擇恥辱的失敗，要麼與美國發生衝突。這將是自1962年美國與前蘇聯就古巴問題發生覈對峙以來，全世界所面臨的最危險的時刻。

However, if Washington were now to decide to enter the diplomatic game over Syria, chances for a deal would improve significantly. Moscow has always known that without some sort of political settlement in Syria — impossible without US participation — its achievements there would not be secured.

然而，如果華盛頓現在決定就敘利亞問題進入外交博弈，達成協議的可能性會大大提升。莫斯科方面始終知道，如果不就敘利亞問題達成某種政治解決方案——在沒有美國參與的情況下是不可能實現的——它將無法確保在那裏所取得的成果。

The Obama administration, despite former secretary of state John Kerry’s best efforts, showed no interest in a serious partnership with Moscow. Mr Trump, in sharp contrast, may be indeed interested in a deal. The Russians will be right to explore this when Mr Tillerson goes to Moscow.

儘管前國務卿約翰?克里(John Kerry)已經做了最大努力，但奧巴馬當局並沒有表現出與俄羅斯建立嚴肅夥伴關係的興趣。與之形成鮮明對比的是，特朗普可能確實對達成交易感興趣。在蒂勒森訪問莫斯科時，俄羅斯探索這方面的機會將是正確的。

Mr Trump prides himself on being a dealmaker. He now has a chance to secure that reputation. And in Mr Tillerson, James Mattis, US defence secretary and HR McMaster, the national security adviser, all of them steeped in the rules of power play, the masters of realpolitik in Moscow might finally have met their match. That they are losing their illusions about Mr Trump and his team is a good thing. But the game is not over. It is just beginning.

特朗普自豪於自己是交易撮合者。他眼下有機會獲得這一聲譽。同時，蒂勒森、國防部長詹姆斯?馬蒂斯(James Mattis)、國家安全顧問赫伯特?雷蒙德?麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)全都沉浸在權力遊戲規則中，莫斯科方面的現實政治大師可能終於棋逢對手了。他們正失去對特朗普及其團隊的幻想，這是件好事。但遊戲還未結束。它纔剛剛開始。