聯合國可持續發展目標引爭議 Experts divided over value of UN sustainable development goals
When world leaders gather in New York this month at the UN General Assembly, they are set to endorse an ambitious package of global economic, social and environmental objectives for the coming 15 years.
當世界各國領導人本月齊聚紐約參加聯合國大會(UN General Assembly)時，他們將支持一套面向未來15年的雄心勃勃的全球經濟、社會與環境目標。
The aims include ending poverty in all its forms everywhere; providing inclusive and equitable quality education for all; achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls; taking urgent action to combat climate change; conserving and sustainably using the oceans; and ensuring healthy lives and promoting wellbeing for all.
這些目標包括：消除全球一切形式的貧困；向所有人提供包容、公平的素質教育；實現性別平等、賦予所有婦女和女童權利；採取緊急行動應對氣候變化；保護和可持續利用海洋；確保健康生活和促進全人類福祉。
These sustainable development goals (SDGs) sound bold, perhaps even naively idealistic, but there is a precedent: the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) ratified by their predecessors at the start of the century, which spanned poverty, hunger, education, health and the environment.
這些可持續發展目標(SDGs)聽起來很大膽，甚至有些幼稚的理想主義色彩，但我們已有先例：當今世界各國領導人的前任們在21世紀初簽署了8項千年發展目標(MDGs)，涉及貧困、飢餓、教育、健康及環境等領域。
Since then, radical changes in thinking, evolutions within countries and political shifts in governance have overhauled the process of selecting — and the underlying substance — of the international agenda. Yet experts remain divided on the value of the MDGs in the past, and whether the SDGs will have any greater impact in the future.
自那以後，思維的劇變、各國內部演變以及治理方面的政治轉變，已經徹底改變了國際議程的選擇過程（及其內在實質）。然而，對於千年發展目標過往的價值，對於可持續發展目標是否會在未來產生更大的影響，專家們仍各持己見。
Ban Ki-moon, the UN’s secretary-general, summed up the effects of the eight MDGs in a final evaluation report this year as “the most successful anti-poverty movement in history”. On paper, at least as far as the data can be relied upon, there has indeed been significant progress in achieving the goals endorsed in 2000. Extreme poverty in developing countries has fallen from 47 per cent in 1990 to 14 per cent this year, while annual global deaths of children under five have halved to 6m.
在今年公佈的一份最終評估報告中，聯合國祕書長潘基文(Ban ki-moon)將八項千年發展目標的效果總結爲“歷史上最成功的反貧困運動”。理論上，至少就可依靠的數據而言，在實現2000年確定的目標方面，我們的確取得了巨大的進步。發展中國家的極端貧困人口占比已從1990年的47%降至今年的14%，而全球5歲以下兒童每年死亡人數已經減少了一半，至600萬。
Yet even on their own terms, the achievements have fallen short of the goals. Despite the positive spin in the UN evaluation report, on current trends it will take another decade for child mortality to fall by the target of two-thirds, for instance. Many of those most in need of the MDGs — the poorest and those living in fragile, conflict-torn states — benefited least.
然而，即使是按照這些目標本身的標準，目前取得的成績也未達到預期目標。雖然聯合國的評估報告往積極的方向說，但以嬰兒死亡率爲例，按目前趨勢，還需10年時間才能實現使其降低三分之二的目標。許多最需要千年發展目標的羣體（最貧困以及生活在脆弱、飽受戰亂國家的人羣）獲益最少。
Just as important is how far the MDGs themselves have influenced what successes have been achieved. Most notably, if the single-greatest driver of declining global poverty since the turn of the millennium was the remarkable internal economic growth of China, then the MDGs had next to no influencing role.
同樣重要的是，千年發展目標自身在多大程度上推動了實際取得的成就？尤其是，如果自世紀之交以來全球減貧最大的單一驅動力是中國國內舉世矚目的經濟增長，那麼千年發展目標就沒起到什麼影響作用。
An analysis by the economist Howard Friedman in 2013 concluded that there was no global acceleration towards most of the development goals after 2000. And among a subset that did progress, the acceleration had generally occurred in the 1990s, before the MDGs were even launched.
2013年，經濟學家霍華德弗裏德曼(Howard Friedman)的一項分析得出結論：2000年之後，大多數發展目標的推進並未在全球範圍出現加速。而在確實取得進展的那些國家中，加速也主要發生在上世紀90年代（即千年發展目標被提出之前）。
However, Mr Friedman pointed out that the goals could have crystallised existing development beliefs and practices, and some individual countries and regions may have achieved accelerated progress after 2000 because of their influence.
但弗裏德曼指出，這些目標可能明確表述了原有的發展理念和實踐，一些國家乃至地區可能在它們的影響下在2000年後實現了加速進展。
For Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, a US think-tank, even any marginal gains attributable to the MDGs should not be dismissed. “At the global level, such change can still amount to millions of lives saved or improved,” he argues.
對於美國智庫——全球發展中心(Center for Global Development)高級研究員查爾斯肯尼(Charles Kenny)來說，千年發展目標帶來的任何微小成績都不應被忽視。“在全球層面，這種變化仍可能相當於拯救數百萬人的生命，改善數百萬人的生活，”他說。
In some areas, the MDGs were at least a corollary of a broader trend. They reflected, if not determined, policy and funding shifts by richer donors and poorer recipient countries alike. In health, for instance, international development assistance more than trebled after 2000, with the creation of new multilateral agencies and bilateral funding commitments to maternal and child health and infectious diseases.
在某些領域，千年發展目標至少是整體趨勢的必然結果。它們反映（如果不是決定的話）富裕捐贈國和貧窮受援國雙方在政策和資金提供方面的變化。例如，在醫療衛生領域，2000年以來，國際發展援助增加了3倍多，創立了新的多邊機構，出現了針對母嬰健康及傳染病的雙邊出資承諾。
Fatoumata Nafo-Traoré, minister of health and social development in Mali at the start of the millennium and now head of the Roll Back Malaria partnership, says: “At first the MDGs created a lot of anxieties, with people thinking they were too ambitious. But they became excited, countries advocated better and mobilised their parliamentarians. If you look at what has been achieved, it’s because of the focus of the UN on bringing all partners on board and really agreeing on goals.”
新千年伊始時曾擔任馬裏衛生與社會發展部部長、現爲“遏制瘧疾夥伴關係”(Roll Back Malaria partnership)負責人的Fatoumata Nafo-Traoré表示：“一開始，千年發展目標帶來了很多焦慮，人們認爲它們過於雄心勃勃。但他們變得激動起來，各國更好地進行宣傳，並動員起立法者。如果你看一看已經取得的成績，這應歸功於聯合國專注於讓所有各方參與進來，就目標達成真正的共識。”
However, William Easterly, professor of economics at New York University, remains sceptical. “The MDGs communicated a very wrong idea about how development happens: technocratic, patronising and magically free of politics,” he says. “It’s not about western saviours but homegrown efforts linked to a gradual extension of political freedom.”
然而，紐約大學(New York University)經濟學教授威廉伊斯特利(William Easterly)仍持懷疑態度。“千年發展目標傳遞了關於如何實現發展的一種非常錯誤的觀念：技術官僚的、居高臨下的、神奇般的脫離政治，”他說，“這裏的關鍵與其說是西方救世主，不如說是與逐漸擴大政治自由相關的本土努力。”
There was at least some attempt to reflect such concerns in the drafting of the SDGs, which involved a far more extensive consultation and debate over many months, and ensured a larger voice for developing countries.
至少已有一些嘗試將這些關切反映在新起草的可持續發展目標中，後者涉及持續多月的、範圍大得多的磋商和辯論，並確保發展中國家擁有更大的發言權。
Yet the result has been an explosion in the number of overall goals from eight to 17, and of specific targets from 18 to 169. Some fear that whatever benefits the MDGs had will be diluted and further progress on them set back. Mr Easterly says: “The SDGs are a mushy collection of platitudes that will fail on every dimension. They make me feel quite nostalgic for the MDGs.”
然而，這一切的結果是總體目標數量從8個增至17個，而具體目標從18個暴增至169個。有人擔心，千年發展目標帶來的成就將被稀釋，而未來的進展也將會受挫。紐約大學的伊斯特利說：“可持續發展目標是衆多陳詞濫調的雜亂集合，它們在每一個層面都將失敗。它們讓我懷念千年發展目標。”
In a recent evaluation, the International Council for Science and the International Social Science Council argued that less than a third of the SDG goals were “well developed”, with some objectives not quantified and many containing contradictory trade-offs and unintended consequences.
在最近一次評估中，國際科學理事會(ICSU)與國際社會科學理事會(ISSC)認爲，只有不到三分之一的可持續發展目標“擬定有方”，有些目標沒有得到量化，還有不少目標相互矛盾，或者會帶來並非出於本意的後果。
Jamie Drummond, head of One, a development advocacy group, argues that much greater emphasis on data is needed: swiftly collecting, using and sharing reliable and high-quality information using technology to monitor and assess progress and hold policymakers to account.
發展倡導組織One的負責人傑米德拉蒙德(Jamie Drummond)認爲，需要更加註重數據：利用科技迅速收集、利用並分享可靠、高質量的信息，以監測和評估進展，讓政策制定者承擔起責任。
There are wider concerns about implementation. Derek Yach, chief health officer of the Vitality Institute, an insurance company, worries that while the involvement of the private sector will be essential to delivering the SDGs, it is struggling to find a voice in the process. “Ownership of the SDGs has to be well beyond government, but there is not a mechanism in the UN for non-state partners,” he says.
對於這些目標的實施存在着更廣泛的擔憂。保險公司Vitality Institute首席醫療官德雷克騠什(Derek Yach)擔心，雖然私營部門的參與對於實現可持續發展目標不可或缺，但它們很難在這一進程中發出自己的聲音。“政府不應該壟斷所有可持續發展目標，但聯合國沒有面向非國家合作伙伴的機制，”他說。
So far, against a backdrop of slower global growth and disparate national interests, governments have been slow to signal there is an appetite to fund the SDGs. There were strong words but few additional resources pledged this summer at the UN Financing for Development meeting in Addis Ababa, for instance. And there are also mixed views on the likely progress that may be made at the Paris climate change conference in December.
到目前爲止，在全球經濟增長放緩以及國家利益各不相同的背景下，各國政府都遲遲不願表現出有意爲可持續發展目標出資。例如，在今年夏天亞的斯亞貝巴召開的聯合國發展籌資會議上，雖然有不少豪言壯語，但沒有多少提供額外資源的承諾。對於12月的巴黎氣候變化會議有望取得什麼進展，各方也看法不一。
US economist Jeffrey Sachs, a longstanding advocate of the MDGs, concedes that the new goals will not be easy to implement. But he argues: “The SDGs are a very broad and complex agenda. Whether it can work out is an open question. But there is now an amazing amount of discussion. There is a sense that this is a sensible framework. I’m not saying a new dawn has broken, but at least governments are saying we need to try.”
千年發展目標的長期倡導者、美國經濟學家傑弗裏薩克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)承認，新的目標不易實施。但他認爲：“可持續發展目標一項非常廣泛而複雜的議程。能否順利推進還是個未知數。但現在有大量討論。大家的感覺是，這一個明智的框架。我並沒有說一個新的黎明已經破曉，但至少各國政府在說我們需要試一試。”
