英國大選進入最後衝刺階段
The Conservatives and Labour remain neck-and-neck on 34 points in the penultimate FT/Populus poll before Thursday’s general election, with neither side breaking the election stalemate.
週四大選前進行的倒數第二次英國《金融時報》/Populus民調顯示，保守黨(Conservatives)和工黨(Labour)仍然並駕齊驅，支持率各爲34%，雙方均未能打破選舉僵局。The poll puts David Cameron’s party and Ed Miliband’s Labour up one point on the 33 they scored on Friday, while the Liberal Democrats are now on 10, Ukip on 13 and others on 10.
民調顯示，戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)領導的保守黨和埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)領導的工黨較上週五獲得的33%增加了1個百分點，同時自由民主黨(Liberal Democrats)的支持率爲10%，英國獨立黨(Ukip)爲13%，而其他政黨的支持率爲10%。
Populus polled 2,054 people online on May 1-3.
Populus於5月1日至3日對2053人進行了在線調查。
Another poll by Lord Ashcroft gave the Conservatives the lead with 32, followed by Labour on 30, Ukip on 12 and Liberal Democrats on 11.
另一項由阿什克羅夫特勳爵(Lord Ashcroft)所做的民調顯示，保守黨以32%的支持率領先，工黨以30%的支持率緊隨其後，英國獨立黨爲12%，自由民主黨爲11%。Rick Nye, Populus managing director, said he expected any movement in the polls to take place over the next 48 hours, as voters make their final calculations on how to vote.
Populus董事總經理裏克•奈(Rick Nye)稱，隨着選民對如何投票進行最後的盤算，他預計未來48小時任何情況都有可能在民調中發生。“If there is any hardening or softening of any party’s vote share it will happen close to polling day,” he said.
他稱，“如果任何政黨的得票份額有任何鞏固或鬆動的話，都將會在逼近投票日的時候發生。”Conservative strategists hope that voters will make a final switch to the “security” offered by a continuation of a Tory government, similar to the trend that put John Major back into power in 1992.
保守黨策略師希望，選民最後會投奔由保守黨政府連任所提供的“安全”，類似於1992年助推約翰•梅傑(John Major)保住首相職位的趨勢。Mr Nye said there could be some increase in the Lib Dem share as people consider voting tactically in individual seats. The Ukip vote is also holding up well but could yet be squeezed on polling day.
奈稱，隨着人們戰術性地考慮具體席位的投票，自由民主黨的得票率可能會有所增加。英國獨立黨的得票份額也保持良好，但是仍可能在投票日當天被擠掉選票。Populus will conduct more fieldwork in the next 48 hours in the hope of capturing any final movements of voters.
Populus將在接下來的48小時內進行更多的實地調查，希望以此獲取選民的最後動向。The polling firm also publishes the Populus Predictor for the Financial Times. This feeds data into a proprietary computer model to indicate the likelihood of various election outcomes.
該民調公司也爲英國《金融時報》發佈Populus預言(Populus Predictor)。它將數據輸入一個專有的計算機模型中，得出不同選舉結果的可能性。The last Predictor of the campaign, published last week, indicated a nine-in-10 chance of a minority government. It also showed Mr Miliband becoming prime minister in more than seven out of 10 simulations but in more than three-quarters of these cases needing the votes of SNP MPs to stay there.
上週發表的關於此次競選的最近一次預言表明，少數黨政府的可能性爲9/10。預言還顯示，在10次模擬中，米利班德成爲英國首相超過7次，但在其中3/4以上的情況下需要蘇格蘭民族黨(SNP)議員的支持。
