安倍如何續寫"安倍經濟學"

In 2005, when Junichiro Koizumi silenced critics in his party after winning a resounding electoral victory, many expected him to embark on a streak of deep structural reforms. Instead, after a fairly non-consequential year, he quietly bowed out of politics.

2005年，當小泉純一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)高票贏得選舉、讓黨內批評者無話可說時，許多人預期他將啓動一系列深層次的結構改革。然而，在度過相當平淡的一年後，他黯然退出了政壇。

Nearly a decade later, his one-time protégé Shinzo Abe has earned himself the possibility of four more years in power after yesterday’s poll delivered his ruling coalition a robust majority in the lower house of parliament. That could see him remaining prime minister until late-2018, edging past Mr Koizumi’s five-and-a-half years in office.

將近10年後，曾經是小泉門生的安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)爲自己贏得了繼續主政四年的可能性，昨日的選舉在國會下院爲他的執政聯盟帶來了強大多數。這可能會使他在首相職位上做到2018年末，略微超過小泉任職五年半的紀錄。

Mr Abe is also expected to double down on his economic programme — a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as supply-side reforms, which has been dubbed Abenomics. Whenever he steps down, the question will be whether Abenomics has succeeded.

外界還預期安倍會對他的經濟計劃加倍下注：這是一套財政和貨幣刺激、加上供應面改革的組合拳政策，有“安倍經濟學”(Abenomics)之稱。無論他在什麼時候下臺，問題都將是安倍經濟學是否取得了成功。

The verdict is likely to be less straightforward than one might think. Abenomics means different things to different people. To some, the primary goal is to dig Japan out of 15 years of deflation. “Deflation has been at least one of the major causes of Japan’s stagnation,” says Masazumi Wakatabe, professor of economics at Waseda University.

這個評判很可能沒有人們想象的那麼直截了當。安倍經濟學對不同的人意味着不同的事情。一些人認爲，首要目標是把日本從持續15年的通縮中拉出來。“通縮一直是日本停滯的主要原因之一，”早稻田大學(Waseda University)經濟學教授若田部昌澄(Masazumi Wakatabe)表示。

With gentle inflation, say these economists, the mountainous public debt, now some 240 per cent of gross domestic product, would erode against rising nominal output. Under mild inflation, they add, there would also be more incentive for consumers to spend and businesses to invest, which would help to lift growth.

這些經濟學家表示，如果有溫和通脹，沉重的公共債務（如今已達國內生產總值(GDP)的240%左右）將在名義產出上升的背景下逐漸減輕。他們還說，在輕度通脹條件下，消費者將有更大動力消費，企業將有更大動力投資，這將有助於提升經濟增長。

But to others, short-term stimulus delivered via monetary easing is merely the first, and least significant, part of Abenomics. More important are the structural reforms, part of Mr Abe’s “third arrow”.

但對其他人來說，通過放鬆貨幣政策來提供短期刺激只是安倍經濟學的第一部分，而且是最不重要的部分。安倍的“第三支箭”，即結構性改革，將更爲重要。

Takatoshi Ito, professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, says Mr Abe has spelt out many of the needed reforms, from freeing up farming and healthcare to joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal with the US and 10 other Pacific Rim countries. “After the election he will have to spend some political capital to implement those policies,” he says. That will be easier said than done.

東京大學公共政策大學院(National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)教授伊藤隆敏(Takatoshi Ito)表示，安倍闡述了很多必要的改革，從放開農業和醫療保健，到與美國及其他10個太平洋沿岸國家締結《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)。“選舉過後，他將不得不花掉一些政治資本來落實這些政策，”伊藤隆敏表示。這些事情做起來不會像說的那麼容易。

Many of the strongest opponents to Mr Abe’s reform push are the conservative members of his fractious Liberal Democratic party. As Tobias Harris, a Japan expert at Teneo Intelligence, points out, rather than lining up behind their premier, it is plausible that recalcitrant backbenchers, safely re-elected, will instead dig in their heels.

安倍改革努力的許多最強大的反對者，是他所在的難以駕馭的自民黨(LDP)的保守派成員。正如特尼歐情報公司(Teneo Intelligence)日本問題專家託拜厄斯•哈里斯(Tobias Harris)指出的那樣，可以想象的是，頑固的後座議員在安全地重新當選後，非但不會齊心支持他們的首相，反而會更加頑固地堅持自己的立場。

Nor can Mr Abe wave a magic wand and sign the TPP. Even if he can face down national opposition, successfully concluding a deal is likely to depend more on what happens in Washington, where President Barack Obama is seeking congressional “fast-track” approval to negotiate.

安倍也無法揮動一下魔杖就簽署TPP。即使他能夠直面國內的反對，成功達成協定也很可能在更大程度上要取決於華盛頓發生的情況，美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)正尋求國會授予“快速通道”(fast-track)談判權力。

Mr Ito also argues that Mr Abe will need to put more emphasis on cutting costs and raising taxes if he is to get Japan’s fiscal house in order. “He’s good at spending, but not so good at cutting,” he says of the stimulus packages and supplementary budgets that Mr Abe has championed.

伊藤隆敏還認爲，安倍如果要整頓日本的財政秩序，就需要更加重視減支和增稅。他在提及安倍倡導的刺激計劃和補充預算時表示：“他擅長支出，但不那麼擅長削減支出。”

Getting the balance right will be tricky. Mr Abe has already had to postpone a second increase in consumption tax after a rise in April throttled the recovery. Now that he is re-elected, the same problems confront him. Move too slowly with fiscal consolidation and critics will say his policies are merely short-term pump-priming. Move too quickly and his reflationary experiment might fizzle out as hard-pressed consumers snap shut their wallets.

把握恰當的平衡將是非常棘手的。在4月份上調消費稅扼殺了復甦勢頭之後，安倍已不得不推遲消費稅的第二次上調。重新當選之後，他面對着同樣的問題。如果他在財政整頓方面動作太慢，批評者會說，他的政策只是短期刺激。如果動作太快，隨着財務緊張的消費者捂緊錢包，安倍的通貨再膨脹實驗可能會不了了之。

When Mr Koizumi was elected, many Japanese thought they had at last found the man to dig the economy out of a hole. In the end, his policies did not outlast him. If Abenomics is to work, Mr Abe needs to go one better.

小泉當選時，許多日本人以爲他們終於找到了把日本經濟拉出泥潭的人。最終，小泉的政策隨着他下臺而草草收場。要使安倍經濟學奏效，安倍就需要做得更漂亮。