癡心妄想: 日本想擡頭, 誰會答應?

For the first time in many years, there is an air of confidence in Japan amid signs that the country could be on the edge of an economic renaissance.

多年來，日本第一次洋溢着自信的氣氛，一些跡象顯示，該國可能正處於經濟復甦的邊緣。

The stock market has bounced back, with the benchmark Nikkei average rising 44 per cent since November. Exporters are reporting higher profits as a result of a weaker yen and companies from Toyota to Seven-Eleven are paying their employees bigger bonuses than they have in some time.

股市已經反彈，基準日經指數自去年11月以來上漲了44%。由於日元走弱，出口商利潤增加。豐田(Toyota)、711等公司發給員工的獎金都是一段時間以來的最高水平。

The positive mood is such that, on meeting US President Barack Obama in Washington last month, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, was able to declare that “Japan is back”.

人心振奮，以至於上個月日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)在華盛頓與美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)會晤的時候，有底氣宣稱“日本回來了”(Japan is back)。

As if to presage the country’s comeback, last year it registered net foreign direct investment for the first time in three years, according to provisional statistics compiled by Japan’s external trade organisation, Jetro.

日本貿易振興機構(Jetro)的初步統計數據顯示，去年日本外商直接投資(FDI)三年來首次出現淨流入，這似乎是日本經濟重振的一個預兆。

While Japan saw more companies pull out in 2010 and 2011, and suffered negative FDI of $1.4bn and $1.7bn respectively, last year it received a net $2.1bn, reports Jetro.

Jestro報告顯示，2010年和2011年有更多公司撤出日本，FDI淨流出分別爲14億美元和17億美元，而去年則出現21億美元的淨流入。

One driver of renewed interest has been increasing regional interdependence. “Investment from Asia is growing strongly,” says Nobuyuki Nagashima, director-general of Jestro’s invest Japan department.

導致外商對日本重燃興趣的一個因素是不斷強化的地區相互依賴。Jestro對日投資部負責人Nobuyuki Nagashima說：“來自亞洲的投資在快速增加。”

Although investment by Asian businesses still trails that by US and European companies, investment from Asia, excluding China, has risen from 16 per cent of the FDI made with Jetro assistance in fiscal 2003, to 44.9 per cent in the first three months of 2012.

儘管來自亞洲企業的投資依然落後於美國和歐洲企業，在Jetro推動下的亞洲（除中國外）投資佔日本FDI比例已經從2003財年的16%，擴大到2012年前三個月的44.9%。

Investment from China has also risen slightly, from 6.5 per cent to 7.7 per cent, although that is a drop from 15 per cent in 2009, reflecting, perhaps, the impact of a territorial dispute over islands in the East China Sea.

來自中國的投資也略有增加，從6.5%增加到7.7%，儘管這個比例低於2009年的15%。這可能反映了圍繞東海島嶼的領土爭端的影響。

Nevertheless, China is Japan’s second largest investor, with 106 companies investing in Japan with assistance from Jetro, between April 2003 and the first three months of 2012, just behind the 315 companies from the US.

然而，中國卻是日本的第二大投資來源地，從2003年4月份到2012年前三個月期間，在Jetro的推動下有106家中國公司投資日本，僅次於美國的315家公司。

What is more, Korea tied with the UK for fourth place – 63 companies each – while Singapore was eighth and Hong Kong, China’s special administrative region, ninth.

此外，韓國與英國並列第四，各有63家公司投資日本。新加坡是第八位，中國香港特別行政區是第九位。

“This was unthinkable when we started [promoting FDI] in 2003,” Mr Nagashima says.

Nagashima說：“在2003年我們開始（推動外商直接投資）的時候，這種情景是不可想象的。”

More recent events, such as the nuclear meltdown in 2011 in Fukushima Daiichi and the resulting enthusiasm for alternative energy and energy conservation, have spurred new markets in which foreign companies are showing keen interest.

近年的一些事件，比如2011年福島第一核電站事故及其引發的對替代能源和節約能源的熱情，催生了一些外國企業非常感興趣的新市場。

RAE Systems, a US maker of gas and radiation detection systems, and Polimaster, a Belarus-based radiation instrument maker, both set up offices in Japan last year.

美國氣體和放射物檢測儀器生產商華瑞科學儀器公司(RAE Systems)，以及白俄羅斯放射儀器生產商Polimaster，去年都在日本設立了辦事處。

Still, the government has its work cut out to sustain foreign interest.

然而，爲了維持外國投資的興趣，日本政府還有很多工作要做。

“Only one in 10 companies that are candidates to invest in Japan actually do so,” Mr Nagashima complains.

Nagashima抱怨說：“每十家準備在日本投資的公司中，實際上只有一家會這麼做。”

Japan has never been a particularly powerful magnet for FDI. Inward FDI comprised just 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of 2011, compared with 49.8 per cent for the UK and 34.7 per cent for France, according to statistics from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

日本從來都不是一個特別能夠吸引FDI的國家。聯合國貿易與發展會議(UNCTAD)統計顯示，在2011年底，日本吸引的FDI只佔國內生產總值(GDP)的3.7%，而英國和法國的這一比例則分別爲49.8%和34.7%。

“The reasons why foreign companies don’t set up businesses in Japan are the high taxes, compared to the rest of Asia, a lack of English language fluency, inflexible labour rules and regulations,” Mr Nagashima says.

Nagashima說：“外國公司不在日本設立公司的原因有：與亞洲其他國家相比日本稅負較重，日本人英語不夠流利，勞動法規缺乏靈活性。”

Japan’s corporate tax rate of about 38 per cent compares unfavourably with the 24.2 per cent in South Korea and 17 per cent in Singapore.

日本的公司稅稅率大約是38%，與韓國的24.2%和新加坡的17%相比是處於劣勢的。

Masahiro Sakane, chairman of Komatsu, said this year one reason overseas interests would not want to acquire a Japanese one is because “Japanese people fear tremendously being bought by a foreign company.” “But unless we create an environment for foreign companies to come into Japan, we won’t be able to overcome deflation,” he said.

小松製作所(Komatsu)會長阪根正弘(Masahiro Sakane)指出，今年海外企業沒有意願收購日本企業的一個原因就是“日本人非常擔憂被外國企業收購。”他說：“但如果我們不爲外國公司進入日本創造環境，就無法克服通貨緊縮。”

While changing public attitudes will take time, the new administration is stirring hopes that it will adopt bold measures to deregulate industry and stimulate investment by domestic and foreign companies alike.

雖然改變公衆態度需要時間，新一屆政府已經讓人們看到希望，當局將採取大膽舉措，放鬆行業管制，並刺激國內外企業的投資。

Mr Abe, who has made fighting deflation a priority, has expressed a strong commitment to deregulation, which many agree is critical to attracting more FDI.

將抗擊通縮作爲重點任務的安倍已表示要大力放松管制，很多人認爲，這對吸引更多FDI來說非常關鍵。

As soon as he took office, Mr Abe reinstated the regulatory reform council, which had been disbanded by the previous government.

上任不久，安倍就恢復了上屆政府解散的監管改革委員會。

Mr Abe has instructed the council to focus on deregulation in the areas of employment as well as the energy, environment, health and medicine sectors.

安倍指示該委員會將重點放在就業、能源、環境、健康以及醫療領域的放松管制。

The government is providing incentives to companies that bring high value-added activities, such as R and D and regional headquarters business.

政府將爲引入諸如研發、地區總部業務等高附加值活動的公司提供激勵。

A pillar of the programme is a 7 per cent effective corporate tax cut for five years, which reduces the corporate tax rate from 38 per cent to 31 per cent.

該計劃的一大重點就是五年內將實際公司稅率減免7%，也就是將38%的稅率降到31%。

If special local government tax breaks are included, the rate falls further to the lower 20s.

如果算入地方政府特別稅收優惠，那麼稅率進一步降到略高於20%的水平。

This move, is “unprecedented”, says Takashi Nakamizo, deputy director of the trade and investment facilitation division at the ministry of economy, trade and industry.

日本經濟產業省(METI)貿易投資促進部門的Takashi Nakamizo表示，這一舉措是“史無前例”的。

The government has accelerated visa-issuing procedures, set up special regional zones, which offer further tax breaks and is offering subsidies to global companies to cover some costs of establishing operations in the country.

政府加快了簽證辦理手續，還設立特別區提供進一步減稅優惠，爲跨國公司提供補貼，用於彌補在日本開設業務的部分成本。

But the key to attracting FDI lies in stimulating demand for the products and services foreign companies have to offer.

但吸引FDI的關鍵在於促進市場對外國公司產品和服務的需求。

In that respect, Mr Abe’s success so far in rallying the country behind his grand plan to escape from deflation and liFT the public mood, suggests he is off to a good start.

在這點上，從安倍迄今在通過其擺脫通縮並增強公衆信心的宏偉計劃來提振日本經濟的成功上來看，他已經開了一個很好的頭。

Japan may no longer be able to attract large manufacturers, which create numerous jobs, but it is still an attractive market for consumer product and services companies, particularly those in the forefront of cutting edge technologies.

日本可能不再能夠吸引大型製造商以創造大量就業，但對於消費品和服務公司來說，它依然是一個很有吸引力的市場，特別是那些尖端技術領域的先驅公司。

For example, Biogen Idec, the oldest independent biotech company in the world, sees strong potential for growth.

比如說，世界上歷史最悠久的獨立生物技術公司百健艾迪公司(Biogen Idec)就看到了巨大的增長潛力。

“Japan is a market that recognises and encourages major innovations like those we’re developing at Biogen Idec,” says Doug Williams, executive vice president of research and development.

該公司研發部門執行副總裁道格拉斯•威廉姆斯(Doug Williams)說：“日本這樣的市場重視並鼓勵重大創新，就像我們在百健艾迪所取得的一些創新。”

“The Japanese healthcare system provides low-cost, universal coverage for patients with intractable diseases including multiple sclerosis and haemophilia,” for which Biogen Idec is developing effective treatments, says Les Fosbrook, managing director in Japan.

百健艾迪日本董事總經理萊斯•福斯布魯克(Les Fosbrook)說：“日本醫療體系爲患有疑難雜症（包括多發性硬化症和血友病）的病人提供低成本、全面覆蓋的醫療服務。”百健艾迪正在針對這些病症研發有效治療方式。

The group plans to double investment in the country as well as the number of local employees, from 70 to 140, in a year’s time.

該集團計劃一年內將在日本的投資額翻番，並將當地員工數量從70名增加至140名。

For many consumer product companies, success in Japan, one of the most demanding markets in the world, provides a gateway to global success.

對於很多消費品公司來說，在日本這一全球最挑剔的市場之一獲得成功，就等於打通了一道在全球取得成功的“門戶”。

As the Chinese home electronics group Haier told the FT: “We believe that maintaining a presence in Japan, which has the highest level of consumer electronics technology in the world and where consumers are demanding and discerning . . . will contribute to raising Haier’s presence in the world and help us become the number one company in the world.”

中國家電集團海爾告訴英國《金融時報》：“我們認爲，在日本這個有着全球最高水平的消費電子產品技術、消費者要求高眼光又敏銳的國家站穩腳跟，將會有助於提升海爾在全球的地位，並幫助我們成爲全球最優秀的企業。”

Convincing more foreign businesses to share that view will hinge on Mr Abe’s ability to deliver on his promises and show that Japan’s revival is real.

能否讓更多的外國企業抱持同樣的觀點，取決於安倍能否兌現承諾，證明日本的復甦是真實的。