比亞迪利潤暴跌 巴菲特效應減退

BYD Co. might stand for Warren Buffett, yet disappointing.

比亞迪股份有限公司(BYD Co.)從一定程度上可能代表着巴菲特(Warren Buffett)，但其表現卻令人失望。

Shares in the Chinese car and battery maker soared after Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought a near 10% stake in 2008. With profits slumping, though, the effect of the Buffett seal of approval is waning. The shares have fallen more than 50% from their highest level this year.

巴菲特麾下伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway) 2008年收購了比亞迪近10%的股權後，這個中國汽車和電池製造商的股票曾一度飆升。不過，隨着比亞迪利潤的下滑，巴菲特效應正不斷減退。比亞迪股票較今年最高水平已下跌了逾50%。

It's easy to see why investors are turned off. Profits fell 94% year-on-year in the first half of 2012, with problems in all the company's major segments.

投資者拍屁股走人的原因是顯而易見的。比亞迪所有主營業務都出現了問題，2012年上半年公司利潤同比大幅下滑94%。

In autos, which account for around half of BYD's revenue, China's slowing economy and the removal of government subsidies for car buyers are taking their toll. Passenger car sales growth for China as a whole slowed to 6.7% year-on-year in the first half, down from a high of 84.6% at the end of 2009. More intense competition is crimping margins too. Though BYD's auto sales were up 12.35% year-on-year, the segment eked out just a 2.9% increase in profits.

在汽車方面(比亞迪約一半的收入來自該業務)，中國經濟減速和政府取消購車補貼均開始對比亞迪汽車業務產生不利影響。今年上半年，中國市場轎車總銷量增速同比放緩至6.7%，遠低於2009年底同比84.6%的高增速。此外，競爭加劇也在擠壓利潤率。雖然比亞迪汽車銷量同比增加了12.35%，但利潤只勉強增加了2.9%。

In handsets, profits fell by a quarter as problems at major customer Nokia -7.82%fed through to weaker demand. It was batteries though, that were BYD's real short circuit. Massive oversupply in solar power resulted in plummeting prices across the sector. BYD's battery segment turned from a 15 million yuan profit ($2.4 million) in the first half of 2011, to a 154 million yuan loss in 2012

在手機方面，由於大客戶諾基亞(Nokia)的問題導致需求疲弱，比亞迪手機業務的利潤降低了四分之一。電池業務是比亞迪真正問題所在。太陽能產業供過於求現象嚴重，引發整個行業價格暴跌。比亞迪電池業務急轉直下，從2011年上半年實現利潤人民幣1,500萬元(合240萬美元)變爲2012上半年虧損1.54億元。

There are potential positive catalysts for the stock. BYD's position as China's market leader in electric vehicles ties in with Beijing's plans to get 500,000 such vehicles on the streets by 2015. Handset sales too could get a boost if Nokia's smart phone business is buoyed by Samsung's +1.27%patent litigation problems in the U.S.

當然，也有一些潛在的積極因素或可推動比亞迪股票上漲。該公司在中國電動車市場上處於領軍地位，而中國政府計劃到2015年全國電動車保有量達到50萬輛。另外，如果諾基亞智能手機業務因三星電子(Samsung)在美國專利訴訟問題獲得提振，那麼比亞迪手機零部件銷售可能也會峯迴路轉。

For now though, investors have pushed BYD's stock down from a high of more than HK$80 at the end of 2009 to HK$13.40 a share on Tuesday. At that price, Mr. Buffett is still sitting on a profit - BYD's shares are up almost 70% from Berkshire's entry price of about HK$7.90. Looking to the long-term future of electric vehicles, the Oracle of Omaha may be willing to wait for a bigger return. But other investors are clearly not so patient.

週二，投資者將比亞迪股票從2009年底逾80港元的高位壓低至13.40港元。不過即使按這個價格計算，巴菲特仍是有錢可賺的。相比伯克希爾哈撒韋公司當年買進比亞迪時的約7.90港元，後者的股票漲了近70%。着眼於電動車的長遠未來，這位奧馬哈先知可能願意再等等，說不定會有更高回報。但其它投資者顯然沒他這麼有耐心了。