中國二氧化碳排放或已見頂 China emissions may already be falling says LSE study
China’s carbon dioxide emissions are likely to peak by 2025 — and may even have done so already — according to a new paper that suggests the country’s economic slowdown and rapid adoption of renewable energy mean previous projections of China’s emissions peak are far too pessimistic.
根據一項新的研究報告，中國的二氧化碳排放很可能在2025年之前達到峯值——甚至有可能已經見頂。該報告稱，中國經濟放緩以及快速採用可再生能源意味着，此前其排放峯值的預測過於悲觀。
“The major problem with current models of China’s emissions is that most of them do not pay attention to change in the structure and growth of China’s economic output,” said Fergus Green of the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute, co-author with Lord Stern of the LSE paper to be published this week in the journal Climate Policy.
倫敦政治經濟學院(LSE)格蘭瑟姆研究所(Grantham Research Institute)的弗格斯•格林(Fergus Green)表示：“現有研究中國碳排放的模型的主要問題在於，它們大多數沒有注意到中國的經濟產出的結構和增長的變化。”這份報告由格林與斯特恩勳爵(Lord Stern)共同完成，將於本週發表在《氣候政策》(Climate Policy)刊物上。
The study assumes that under a “high growth scenario”, annual economic growth will be just 6 per cent rate for the coming decade — compared with an average of more than 10 per cent in the first decade of this century.
這項研究假設，在“高速增長的前景”下，未來10年中國年度經濟增速將僅有6%——相比之下，本世紀頭10年的年均增速超過了10%。
With the slowdown accompanied by a government-planned economic transition from carbon-intensive heavy industry to services, the authors expect this structural shift means a decline of at least 4 per cent in the country’s energy intensity over the next decade.
伴隨中國政府推進經濟轉型，從碳密集型重工業轉向服務業，中國出現了增長放緩。在此背景下，兩位作者預期，這種結構性變化意味着中國的能源密集度在未來10年將下降至少4%。
They believe this means primary energy consumption growth will slow to only 1.8 per cent a year or less between now and 2025, compared with an annual rate of more than 8 per cent between 2000 and 2013.
他們認爲，這意味着從現在到2025年，一次能源消費增速將放緩至1.8%或更低，相比之下，2000年至2013年期間的年增速超過了8%。
At the same time, China’s energy will increasingly come from non-fossil sources, the report says. The researchers believe the government‘s target to derive 15 per cent of primary energy from non-fossil sources by 2020 “is likely to be significantly beaten”.
與此同時，該報告稱，中國的能源將越來越多地來自非化石來源。兩位研究人員相信，中國政府的目標——到2020年非化石能源佔一次能源比重達到15%——“很可能明顯提前實現”。
The study is not the first to suggest carbon cuts are happening already. Last month the government released figures suggesting emissions from fossil fuels and cement had fallen in 2015, according to analysis from Greenpeace.
這份報告並非第一個預測中國碳排放下降的研究。根據綠色和平組織(Greenpeace)的分析，中國政府上月發佈的數據似乎表明，2015年，來自化石燃料與水泥的碳排放已經出現下降。
Sector-specific targets for renewable energy generation are set as absolute outputs, rather than as shares of total energy consumption. This means coal could be squeezed out faster if total energy consumption is lower than expected. China’s energy planning agencies aim to produce 200-300 gigawatts of wind and 150 gigawatts of solar energy by 2020. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that coal consumption stayed flat in 2014, and the National Bureau of Statistics states production fell by 3.3 per cent last year.
可再生能源發電的行業目標被設定爲絕對產出，而非作爲總能耗的一部分。這意味着，如果總能耗低於預期，煤炭將會被更快地擠出能源結構。中國能源規劃機構的目標是，到2020年，使風電產能達到200至300千兆瓦，太陽能發電達到150千兆瓦。據美國能源情報署(Energy Information Administration)估計，2014年中國煤炭消費量未出現增長，而中國國家統計局(NBS)的數據顯示，去年中國的煤炭產量下降了3.3%。
There are risks on the path to lower emissions. Provincial governments may be tempted by the short-term growth boons of building new coal plants. Coal plant building accelerated in 2014-15 “despite already enormous amounts of excess capacity”, says the report.
中國減排的道路上也存在風險。省級政府可能會因貪圖短期增長而建設新的燃煤電廠。該報告稱，“雖然已經出現大量產能過剩”，但在2014至2015年燃煤電廠建設仍出現加速。
Whether such risks will be realised depends on the political clout of the coal enterprises and local governments dependent on coal. Last week the government estimated that 1.3m coal workers could be laid off due to reforms to shut unprofitable mines.
此類風險會不會成真，取決於煤炭企業以及依賴煤炭的地方政府的政治影響力。上週，中國政府估計，關閉不賺錢煤礦的改革舉措將導致130萬煤炭工人下崗。
At its annual parliamentary session this weekend, China for the first time announced a cap on its projected energy consumption by 2020. It also set a new target of reducing energy intensity, or the amount of energy consumed per unit of gross dometic product, by 18 per cent in that period.
在週末召開的全國人大會議上，中國首次宣佈2020年預期能源消耗上限。中國還設定了將能源密集度（即單位GDP的能耗量）在此期間降低18%的新目標。
Many climate change researchers believe China’s emissions are already far lower than official estimates. The country surpassed its targets for reducing emissions intensity over the past five years, thanks to the economic slowdown and massive construction of hydropower dams.
許多氣候變化研究者認爲，中國的碳排放量已經遠低於官方估計。過去5年，得益於經濟放緩以及大規模建設水電站，中國已超額完成削減碳排放強度的目標。
The world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter said last year its emissions would peak around 2030. It had previously stood firm on not cutting its carbon emissions while its economy was still developing.
世界最大二氧化碳排放國去年表示，其碳排放將在2030年前後達到峯值。中國此前曾堅持在經濟發展階段不進行減排。
