中國南車北車合併將重塑行業格局
China’s two dominant manufacturers of railway equipment were on a roll at the end of October.
China CNR won a contract to supply more than 280 subway cars to Boston’s transit system in the first successful US bid by a Chinese rolling stock company. A few weeks later a consortium including CNR’s main domestic rival, CSR Corp, secured the country’s first ever overseas contract for a high-speed rail project, awarded by the Mexican government.
中國北車(CNR)贏得了一份向波士頓交通系統供應280多輛地鐵車輛的合同，這是中國軌道車輛製造企業首次在美國成功中標。不久後，一個包括中國北車的主要國內競爭對手中國南車(CSR)的財團獲得了墨西哥政府授予的、中國首個海外高鐵項目合同。By early November, however, the Mexico contract had been cancelled and CNR and CSR both suspended trading in their shares ahead of a possible government-mandated merger that could reshape the global rail industry. The two companies already rank as the world’s largest manufacturers of rolling stock, with annual sales of about $16bn each.
但是，墨西哥的高鐵合同在11月初即被取消。而在中國北車和中國南車在中國政府主導下的可能合併之前，兩家公司的股票雙雙停牌。這一合併將重塑全球鐵路行業格局。兩公司已位居世界最大的軌道車輛製造商前列，每家年銷售額都約在160億美元。
A decade after splitting CNR and CSR off from the same state-owned parent to promote competition in the domestic rail sector, the Chinese government now thinks the strategy has been too successful. It wants to recombine the two to prevent them from undercutting each other abroad.
當年爲了促進國內軌道行業競爭，中國北車和中國南車從同一家國有母公司分拆成立。10年後，中國政府現在認爲這一戰略成功得過了頭，因此想重新合併兩家公司，防止他們在競標海外項目時相互掣肘。“They should have merged earlier,” says Zhao Jian, a transport expert at Beijing Jiaotong University. “We have to avoid situations in which they are at each other’s throats. Only the foreign fisherman benefits when Chinese sandpipers and oysters fight.” CNR and CSR, Mr Zhao adds, both invest about 2 per cent of revenue in research and development, much of it duplicated, compared with reinvestment of 5 per cent for international rivals such as Siemens.
“他們早就應該合併，”北京交通大學運輸問題專家趙堅說。“我們必須避免兩家公司相互卡住對方喉嚨的情況。中國鷸蚌相爭，只會外國漁翁得利。”趙堅補充說，中國北車和中國南車在研發方面的投入都只佔收入的約2%，且其中大部分是重複的，而像西門子(Siemens)這樣的國際競爭對手，再投入的比例爲5%。Chinese press reports have cited multiple examples of self-defeating competition between the two companies, including a Turkish locomotive tender for which CNR bid below cost and another in Argentina where CSR submitted a bid almost 50 per cent cheaper than its domestic rival. CNR and CSR declined interview requests.
中國媒體的報道列舉了多起兩家公司之間惡性競爭的案例。一起是在土耳其的一個機車項目招標中，中國北車以低於成本價投標；另一起是在阿根廷，中國南車提交的競標價格比中國北車低了近乎一半。兩家公司均拒絕接受採訪。The Boston contract, awarded in October, illustrated how divergent the two companies’ performances can be. While the Massachusetts Department of Transportation was effusive in its praise of CNR’s bid — which came in at $570m compared with a $1bn proposal from Bombardier of Canada — it disqualified CSR. Massachusetts officials said CSR’s bid was considered “unacceptable” in three categories including technology, manufacturing and quality assurance.
中國北車10月份贏得的波士頓項目合同可以說明這兩家公司的表現還是有很大差別的。馬薩諸塞州運輸部(Massachusetts Department of Transportation)對中國北車的標書大加讚賞——報價爲5.7億美元，而加拿大龐巴迪(Bombardier)報價10億美元——但它取消了中國南車的競標資格。該州官員說，中國南車標書被認爲在技術、製造和質量保證三方面“不可接受”。CNR’s bid also included a novel $60m investment in a final assembly facility in western Massachusetts that will create 250 jobs.
中國北車的標書中還包括了一項特別的6000萬美元的投資，用於在馬薩諸塞州西部地區建立一家總裝配廠，並創造250個就業機會。“The Boston deal shows that Chinese railway companies can compete against foreign brands,” says Robin Xu, a Shanghai-based transport analyst with UBS Securities. “We’re going to see more orders in future.”
瑞銀證券(UBS Securities)駐上海的運輸業分析師Robin Xu說：“這份波士頓合同表明，中國鐵路設備公司能夠與外國品牌競爭。今後，我們將看到更多訂單。”According to Mr Xu, the final assembly facility was unusual as CNR and CSR typically bolt their trains together in China, where economies of scale allow them to offer prices 50 per cent lower than their international competition.
Robin Xu認爲，在美國建總裝配廠是不尋常的，因爲中國北車和中國南車通常都在國內組裝車輛，這裏的規模經濟能夠使他們的報價比國際競爭對手低一半。Rebounding from its failure in Boston, CSR’s participation in the Mexico contract was a much bigger prize. It represented the first overseas export order for high-speed rail technology from China, which has built the world’s largest high-speed train network in just five years. But CSR was not able to enjoy its coup for long. Within days the contract was rescinded after objections from Mexican legislators, who said it had been issued too hastily.
從波士頓的失敗中恢復過來，中國南車參與到墨西哥的合同是一個更大的勝利。墨西哥高鐵合同是中國高鐵技術首個海外出口訂單，中國僅用5年時間就建起了世界最大的高速鐵路網。但中國南車沒能將勝利的喜悅品嚐多久。幾天內，這一合同就被取消，原因是遭到了墨西哥議員的反對，他們認爲合同授予過於匆忙。Partly because of the hurried tender process, the Chinese consortium was the only bidder. It also emerged that a Mexican member of the Chinese group had built a mansion for Mexico’s first lady, who has vehemently denied any wrongdoing. State-owned China Railway Construction Corp, which led the consortium, has vowed to bid again for the project when it is retendered.
部分由於倉促的招標過程，中國財團成爲唯一的競標者。還有消息稱，中國競標財團中的一家墨西哥公司爲墨西哥第一夫人建了一處豪宅。她斷然否認有任何不當行爲。財團的牽頭者、國有的中國鐵建(China Railway Construction Corp)已宣告要在重新招標時再次競標該項目。CSR and CNR could participate in the consortium’s second bid as either a merged entity or through a new joint venture focused on overseas markets. After denying merger reports in September, both companies’ shares have been suspended from trading since October 27 pending an announcement regarding a “significant event”.
中國北車和中國南車可能以合併後的實體或通過成立一家新的專注海外市場的合資公司，參與該財團的第二次投標。在9月份否認合併的消息後，兩家公司的股票從10月27日就已經雙雙停牌，原因是“重大事項”有待公告。A full-blown merger of the two would be a victory for China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which prioritises the efficiency and returns of national industrial champions over the wishes of the National Development and Reform Commission, which is more concerned about domestic competition and prices.
對於中國國有資產監督管理委員會來說，中國北車和中國南車的徹底合併意味着一場勝利，因爲它優先考慮的是民族工業領軍企業的效率和收益，而非國家發展和改革委員會的期望，後者更關注國內競爭和價格。
