哈薩克斯坦加速開放經濟

In the last days of the Soviet Union, one of Mikhail Gorbachev’s lieutenants came to him with a plea: ditch the Soviet planned economy and open up to ­market reforms as China had.

在前蘇聯最後的日子裏，米哈伊爾•戈爾巴喬夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)的一位副手曾這樣請求他：放棄蘇聯的計劃經濟，像中國那樣推行市場改革。

“I said, ‘At the end of the day, if you don’t have any strategy, look at what China has done’,” recalled Nursultan Nazarbayev, now the president of ­Kazakhstan, in a recent speech.

現任哈薩克斯坦總統的努爾蘇丹•納扎爾巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)在最近一次演講中回憶道：“我當時說，‘如果您到最後還拿不出戰略的話，就看看中國所做的吧’。”

Mr Gorbachev rejected the suggestion. But 25 years later Mr Nazarbayev is pinning his own hopes on an ambitious programme of privatisation and market reform to stave off an economic crisis.

戈爾巴喬夫拒絕了他的建議。25年後，納扎爾巴耶夫自己把希望寄託在了一項大規模的私有化和市場改革計劃上，以求防範經濟危機。

A strong economy has underpinned Mr Nazarbayev’s popularity since he took office in 1991. But buffeted by the slowdown in China, the effect of the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy and plunging oil prices, the International Monetary Fund has forecast growth will slow this year to 4.6 per cent from 6 per cent in 2013.

自1991年上臺以來，哈薩克斯坦經濟昌盛，這鞏固了納扎爾巴耶夫的民望。但受中國經濟放緩、烏克蘭危機拖累俄羅斯經濟以及油價下挫等因素影響，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預測，哈薩克斯坦今年的經濟增速將從2013年的6%降至4.6%。

“Kazakhstan, as a part of the global economy and a country close to the epicentre of geopolitical tension, is feeling the negative effects,” said Mr Nazarbayev in an address to the nation last week.

納扎爾巴耶夫上週向全國發表講話時表示：“作爲全球經濟的一部分以及一個靠近地緣政治緊張局勢中心的國家，哈薩克斯坦正感受到負面影響。”

He also announced a $9bn stimulus for the economy from the national oil fund to encourage investment in Kazakh infrastructure.

他還宣佈了一項90億美元的經濟刺激計劃，以鼓勵對哈薩克斯坦基礎設施的投資，資金將來自國家石油基金。

Meanwhile, bankers and executives in the country say the economic slowdown is having a big effect on business confidence. “We see less demand for loans – people are really being careful about expanding their businesses,” says Magzhan Auezov, managing director of Kazkommertsbank, the country’s largest lender.

與此同時，該國銀行界人士和企業高管表示，經濟放緩正對企業信心造成巨大影響。全國最大的銀行——哈薩克商業銀行(Kazkommertsbank)董事總經理馬格詹•奧耶佐夫(Magzhan Auezov)表示：“我們看到貸款需求下滑，人們確實對擴大業務態度謹慎。”

Kazakhstan’s government, which relies on oil for more than half its ­revenues, is revising down budget projections for next year on the basis of an oil price of $80 a barrel.

哈薩克斯坦政府正以每桶80美元的油價爲基礎，下調明年的預算估測。該國政府逾一半的收入依賴石油。

“We knew that oil prices would fall one day – that’s the reason all this package of reforms started,” says Yerlan Sagadiyev, vice-minister of investment and development. “We now have to move a lot faster.”

“我們知道油價總有一天會下跌，這就是我們推出改革計劃的原因，”負責投資和發展的副部長葉爾蘭•薩加季耶夫(Yerlan Sagadiyev)表示，“我們現在必須更快行動。”

But people familiar with the government’s thinking say that the urgency behind the programme of privatisations and regulatory reforms is more than just an attempt to stimulate Kazakhstan’s economy. It is also an attempt to secure western investment in Kazakhstan’s future at a time when Russia is showing little respect for post-Soviet borders.

但瞭解哈薩克斯坦政府想法的人士稱，該國迫切推行私有化和監管改革計劃不僅僅是爲了刺激經濟。還有一個目的是，在俄羅斯對蘇聯解體以後的國界幾乎沒有表現出任何尊重之際，爭取西方對哈薩克斯坦未來的投資。

When asked a question at a carefully choreographed public meeting in Russia in August about whether Kazakhstan, which has a large ethnic Russian population, could face a “Ukraine scenario”, Vladimir Putin caused alarm in Astana by saying that the Kazakh people had never had a state before Mr Nazarbayev was president.

在今年8月在俄羅斯召開的一次經過精心設計的公開會議上，有人問了弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)這樣一個問題：擁有大量俄羅斯族裔的哈薩克斯坦是否會面臨“烏克蘭情景”？普京的回答在阿斯塔納引起恐慌，他表示，在納扎爾巴耶夫擔任總統以前，哈薩克人從未建立過國家。

Dosym Satpayev, head of Risk Assessment Group, a think-tank in Almaty, says the country is at a critical juncture. “It’s like the Titanic. There was a very beautiful opening, but now we can see a lot of icebergs,” he said.

阿拉木圖智庫——風險評估集團(Risk Assessment Group)負責人多瑟姆•薩帕耶夫(Dosym Satpayev)表示，哈薩克斯坦正處於緊要關頭。他表示：“它就像是那艘泰坦尼克號(Titanic)。開頭非常美好，但現在我們能看到很多冰山。”

In response, the Kazakh government has worked at a frantic pace to push through reforms to reinvigorate the economy by wooing western investors. Last month, the country signed a “partnership and co-operation pact” with the EU, and it is hoping to become a member of the World Trade Organisation in the next few months. It has relaxed visa requirements, cut back bureaucracy, and is offering subsidies for big foreign investors.

針對當前形勢，哈薩克斯坦政府以緊鑼密鼓的節奏，大力推動改革，以期通過吸引西方投資者，爲經濟重新注入活力。該國上月與歐盟(EU)簽署“夥伴關係與合作協議”，並希望在未來幾個月內加入世界貿易組織(WTO)。該國放寬了簽證要求，削減了官僚程序，並向外國大型投資者提供補貼。

Central to the reforms is Samruk-Kazyna, the sprawling sovereign wealth fund for the state’s interests in the country, which employs 350,000 people and accounts for a quarter of all investment in the Kazakh economy.

在這些改革中，規模龐大、代表國家利益的主權財富基金Samruk-Kazyna處於核心地位。該基金擁有多達35萬員工，佔哈薩克斯坦經濟投資總額的四分之一。

Samruk, a focus for critics of the bureaucracy and corruption in Kazakhstan’s economy, plans to sell off half of the 600 companies it owns within three years.

Samruk計劃在3年內將旗下600家公司出售一半。對哈薩克斯坦經濟中存在的官僚主義和腐敗持批評態度的人士密切關注着這家基金。

It has already sold many of the sanatoria, kindergartens, and holiday camps that it owned as a legacy of the Soviet era. Next month, it plans to list the state electricity company, Kegoc, on the Kazakh stock exchange.

目前該基金已出售了其在前蘇聯時代就擁有的很多療養院、幼兒園和度假營地。下個月，該基金計劃將國家電力公司Kegoc在哈薩克斯坦股票交易所上市。

In parallel, the sovereign fund is putting emphasis on co-operation with international companies. “We believe that the presence of private investors in our capital is essential,” said Umirzak Shukeyev, chief executive of the fund, in an interview with the Financial Times. “We are telling our companies that new projects should include a private ­company as a strategic investor.”

同時，該主權基金還將重點放在了與跨國企業的合作上面。“我們認爲，私人投資者在我們首都出現至關重要，”該基金首席執行官烏米爾扎克•舒克耶夫(Umirzak Shukeyev)在接受英國《金融時報》採訪時表示，“我們正告訴我們的企業，新的項目應引入私營企業作爲戰略投資者。”

Some observers are ­sceptical that the Kazakh government can do much to woo investors fearful of the fallout from the Ukraine crisis.

關於哈薩克斯坦政府能否採取大量措施，吸引那些對烏克蘭危機影響感到擔憂的投資者，一些觀察人士持懷疑態度。

However, Janet Heckman, head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in Almaty, says that companies that had previously planned investments in Russia are now turning to Kazakhstan. “We’re starting to see some real investors . . . people looking at Kazakhstan as an alternative to Russia,” said Ms Heckman

不過，歐洲復興開發銀行(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)在阿拉木圖的負責人珍尼特•埃克曼(Janet Heckman)表示，一些之前計劃在俄羅斯投資的企業現在將目光轉向了哈薩克斯坦。她表示：“我們開始看到一些真正的投資者……人們將哈薩克斯坦視爲俄羅斯的替代選擇。”

Kairat Kelimbetov, governor of the Kazakh central bank, says the fall in oil prices, is “kind of good news for people who want to change something”.

哈薩克斯坦央行行長卡伊拉特•克里姆別托夫(Kairat Kelimbetov)表示，油價下跌“對於那些希望發生一些變化的人們來說是個好消息”。