西方爲何應關注印度前途 Why the west should pay attention to India’s woes

Mention China at almost any meeting and you will trigger lively reactions, both optimistic and pessimistic. Try Brazil and you will also receive a keen response and different views, though the country’s emphasis on inclusive growth is fairly consistent and well understood. Shift the conversation to India, however, and enthusiasm visibly declines, especially recently. This matters: the Indian economy, perhaps more so than other emerging markets, will determine political and economic developments in its region and around the world.

幾乎在任何會議上提到中國都會引發激烈反響，或樂觀，或悲觀。試着換成巴西，同樣也會引起熱烈反應和不同的觀點。不過巴西強調的包容性增長方針一以貫之，容易理解。然而，一旦把話題轉到印度，人們的熱情明顯下降，近年來這種趨勢更加明顯。這一點事關重大：印度經濟或許將比其他新興市場更能左右周邊區域、乃至全球的政治和經濟發展。

India ranks high among nations where restoring a high rate of economic growth can make a big difference to reducing poverty. According to data from the World Bank, a third of India’s population live on less than $1.25 a day, the internationally recognised poverty line. More than two-thirds live on less than $2 a day. India is estimated to have a third of the world’s poor.

有一類國家，只要能夠恢復高速經濟增長率，即可大規模消除貧困，印度在其中位列前茅。世界銀行(World Bank)發佈的數據顯示，三分之一的印度人口生活在每天1.25美元的國際公認貧困線以下。三分之二以上的印度人口生活費水平每天不足2美元。據估計，印度貧困人口占全球貧困總人口的三分之一。

India is also an important country for anyone worried about the detrimental role of money in politics. There has been a sharp increase in the number of millionaires that serve as parliamentarians. And if you care about the orderly rebalancing of the global economy, India’s middle classes will probably play a vital role in the shift of emerging economies to more of a consumption model.

對於擔心金錢荼毒政治的人士而言，印度也是一個重點國家。在印度議會中擔任議員的百萬富翁人數急劇增加。如果人們希望全球經濟有序地實現再平衡，在新興經濟體向消費導向的模式轉型過程中，印度中產階層可能將發揮重要作用。

Then there are the regional dimensions. India is essential to the stability of a neighbourhood that includes other nuclear powers (China and Pakistan) and a failed state trying to recover (Afghanistan).

此外還有區域因素。印度對周邊地區穩定不可或缺，這個區域既包括其他核大國（中國和巴基斯坦），也包括試圖實現復甦的“失敗國家”（阿富汗）。

Despite all this, the west seems to be paying too little attention to what has been going on in the Indian economy. Growth has slowed significantly. The fiscal deficit is sizeable. Internal political conflicts are increasing. India has all but stopped climbing the World Bank’s rankings of countries by ease of doing business – despite being far down the list to begin with.

儘管如此，西方似乎對印度經濟發展狀況漠不關心。印度經濟增長顯著下降。財政赤字龐大。內部政治衝突越來越多。在世界銀行編制的商業經營難易程度排行榜上，印度幾乎止步不前——儘管從一開始印度在榜單上的排名就很靠後。

Think of it this way. India operates what might be called a highly leveraged growth model. Government deficits are relatively high but manageable provided gross domestic product growth is about 8-9 per cent. Policy errors that lead to slower growth mean rapid adjustments are required to avoid a downward spiral.

這麼說吧。印度實行的是一種或許可以稱之爲“高度槓桿化”的增長模式。政府赤字規模相對較大，但只要國內生產總值(GDP)增長率達到8-9%左右，赤字就依然可控。政治錯誤導致增長放緩，這意味着，要避免螺旋式下滑，就必須快速實施調整。

We suspect that there are four main reasons for the failure of India to register in the west.

我們認爲，印度未能獲得西方關注，有四點主要原因。

First, there is a lot else going on in the global economy, such as Europe’s debt crisis, America’s fiscal cliff and the risk of a hard landing for China. Second, India is hard to analyse, with regional governments adding an extra layer of complexity. Third, the country’s malaise is hidden behind the global success of its privately owned multinational companies. Finally, India’s “disruptive” impact on international production patterns and trade has been largely limited to services; it is yet to be anywhere near as influential as China.

首先，全球經濟存在其他多種問題，例如歐洲債務危機，美國財政懸崖，以及中國的硬着陸風險等。第二，印度是個難以分析的國家，而地方政府各自爲政，進一步增加了問題的複雜性。第三，印度私營跨國企業在全球的成功掩蓋了印度的問題。最後，印度對全球生產模式和貿易的“干擾性”影響主要限於服務業，其影響力與中國不可同日而語。

These are all understandable reasons for the limited attention that India is receiving. But they are not good ones given the implications.

印度受到的關注不足，這些原因都可理解。但考慮到其影響，這些原因都無法令人滿意。

India is yet to move beyond first-generation structural reforms to its economy. By moving from state- managed controls to more market-based ones, it created a surge in economic growth and a rapid expansion of the private sector. However, the second generation of reforms, which typically follow as countries become richer, has yet to arrive. These reforms sustain growth by encouraging much more productive microeconomic behaviours.

印度尚未走出第一代經濟結構改革階段。第一代結構改革使經濟從國家管制走向市場化，推動經濟迅猛增長，私營行業快速擴張。但是，在國家變得富裕一些之後，第二代改革往往應該跟進，但印度尚未着手實施。第二代改革將鼓勵更具生產性的微觀經濟行爲，以維持經濟增長。

For India, reducing the scope and scale of corruption is one such necessary reform. It serves to divert resources in a highly distorted and inefficient manner. More broadly, structural budgetary weakness impedes growth, fiscal sustainability and acceptable distributions of income and wealth.

對於印度而言，減少腐敗的範圍和規模是改革的一條必由之路。腐敗導致資源配給嚴重扭曲，毫無效率。從更廣泛的角度來看，結構性預算疲弱妨礙經濟增長、財政的可持續性以及收入和財富的合理分配。

India is not the first economy to face these issues, nor will it be the last. Yet the consequences of a protracted slowdown would be much more pronounced. The last thing today’s fragile global economy needs is another source of systemic risk.

印度不是第一個、也不是最後一個存在這些問題的經濟體。然而經濟增長長期低迷的後果在印度將更加明顯。今天脆弱的全球經濟最不需要的就是再增加一個系統性風險源頭。

It is not too late for the country to change course and find the path of higher growth and financial stability. Indeed, recent policy mistakes are being addressed with the return of Palaniappan Chidambaram, the experienced finance minister, who has begun his third term in this office, and with the able support of Raghuram Rajan, a respected academic from the University of Chicago, as chief economist.

如果印度現在能夠改弦易轍，尋找一條使經濟加快增長、金融保持穩定的道路，則爲時未晚。事實上，隨着經驗豐富的財長帕拉尼亞潘?齊丹巴拉姆(Palaniappan Chidambaram)的迴歸，最近的政策失誤得以糾正。這是他第三次擔任印度財政部長一職，並得到了芝加哥大學(University of Chicago)著名學者拉古拉姆·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)的大力支持。拉詹擔任印度財政部首席經濟顧問。

Their efforts will need to be translated into decisive action by the ruling coalition, a return to legislative business, reforms by parliament and a major effort to rein in corruption. But if it takes too long for this to happen, many western governments, companies and investors will wake up to an unpleasant surprise. The impact will be felt well beyond India’s borders.

他們的努力必須轉換成執政聯盟的果斷行動，如恢復立法工作，實施議會改革，大力反腐。但如果這一過程耗時過久，很多西方政府、企業和投資者將幡然醒悟，印度是令人不快的意外。其影響將遠遠超出印度國境。