關注社會:中國出口商開始囤積美元

Many Chinese exporters are starting to hoard the dollars they earn, betting that the yuan is unlikely to appreciate much more, a shift in strategy that is having a ripple effect throughout the country's financial system.

中國很多出口企業預計人民幣不太可能再大幅升值，因此開始囤積它們的美元收入。這種策略正在對全國金融系統產生連帶影響。

Until recently, Chinese exporters like state-owned Huihong International Group and privately held Saijia Co. had rushed to sell their dollar earnings to banks as soon as they got paid, in exchange for the appreciating yuan. Now, because the Chinese currency no longer seems certain to rise, those companies are holding their dollars for as long as they can.

相關報道在過去，像國有企業江蘇匯鴻國際集團、民營企業江蘇賽佳股份有限公司這樣的中國出口企業都是在收到付款後趕緊將其美元收入賣給銀行，換取正在升值的人民幣。現在因爲人民幣似乎不再肯定會升值，這些公司都在儘可能長時間地留存美元。

"In the past, we would exchange our dollar earnings for renminbi on the same day we received the payment," said Fang Minghua, head of Saijia, a company in eastern China's Jiangsu province that sells clothing to the U.S., Australia, Japan and Europe. "Now, we're not in the rush to sell' dollars, Mr. Fang said. 'We would like to wait and see."

江蘇賽佳董事長房明華說，過去我們會在收到付款的同一天把美元兌換掉，現在我們不着急賣，寧願等等。賽佳向美國、澳大利亞、日本和歐洲市場出口服裝。

That change has broad implications not just for Chinese companies, but also for China's banks, which are finding themselves with less foreign currency on reserve. For four months in the past eight months, the banks sold more foreign currency than they bought, a sign of the shift in corporate China toward holding dollars.

這種變化不僅對於中國企業，對於中國銀行業也都有着廣泛的影響。銀行的外匯儲備正變得越來越少。過去八個月中，銀行有四個月都是出售外匯多於買入外匯，這意味着中國企業界在朝着持有美元的方向轉變。

Because companies aren't converting their dollars to yuan, fewer yuan are flowing into the economy. That has prompted the People's Bank of China to slash the banks' reserve-requirement ratio, known as RRR, three times since November to help banks lend more. The ratio measures the share of deposits banks are required to hold as reserves.

因爲企業不把美元兌換成人民幣，流入經濟領域的人民幣減少。這促使中國央行從去年11月以來三次下調銀行存款準備金率，幫助銀行貸出更多資金。存款準備金率指的是銀行按要求向中央銀行繳納的存款準備金佔其存款總額的比例。

"To some extent, the changes made by corporate treasurers are having an impact on China's monetary policy," said He Weisheng, a Shanghai-based analyst at Citigroup Inc.

花旗集團(Citigroup Inc.)駐上海分析師賀偉晟說，企業財務人員所做的調整在一定程度上影響着中國的貨幣政策。

Chinese companies started to rejigger their foreign-exchange strategies late last year, when the yuan came under pressure from a global rush for dollars and other currencies historically viewed as havens.

中國企業外匯策略的調整始於去年年底。當時全球投資者紛紛買進美元和其他傳統上被視爲避險資產的貨幣，使人民幣承受壓力。

China keeps a tight rein on the yuan, also known as the renminbi, by keeping it trading in a preset band. The yuan gained 4.7% last year against the dollar and has jumped about 25% since its revaluation in 2005. It has dipped 1% so far this year, and traded at about 6.3575 against the dollar late in Asia on Thursday.‪

中國嚴格控制着人民幣的匯率，只讓它在一個預先設定的範圍內波動。去年人民幣對美元升值4.7%，自2005年匯改以來已經升值25%左右。今年以來貶值1%，週四亞洲市場尾盤報1美元兌人民幣6.3575元。

The recent weakness has come after China loosened the yuan's daily trading limits in April, one of the most significant moves to liberalize the currency since mid-2010. Many analysts recently have dialed back their expectations for yuan appreciation this year to less than 2% from a previous forecast of roughly 3%.

人民幣在近期走軟之前中國央行在今年4月放寬了人民幣對美元的每日交易區間，這是自2010年年中以來人民幣自由化邁出的最爲重大的步伐之一。很多分析師近期將他們對今年人民幣升值幅度的預期從此前大約3%下調至不到2%。

"Given the way renminbi trades these days, it makes sense for exporters to hold onto dollars as opposed to rush to sell dollars, and for importers to switch from borrowing dollars to buying dollars to pay their foreign suppliers," Xu Peng, an official at Huihong International, a state-owned textiles company that earned about $500 million from sales overseas last year.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images國有紡織企業江蘇匯鴻國際集團的一位負責人徐鵬說，鑑於人民幣目前的交易行情，出口企業持有美元而不是急於拋售是有道理的。進口企業從借入美元向買入美元轉變以便向國外供應商支付有關款項也合情合理。去年匯鴻國際集團從海外銷售中賺得了大約5億美元。

PBOC officials have indicated that banks' foreign-exchange positions play a major role in the central bank's decision to reduce banks' reserve requirements. At a news conference in March, PBOC Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan indicated such cuts are a tool to offset the impact of companies hoarding dollars.

中國央行官員表示，中資銀行的外匯頭寸對央行是否決定降低銀行存款準備金率起到重要作用。在今年3月的一場新聞發佈會上，中國央行行長周小川表示，降低銀行存款準備金率是爲了抵消企業囤積美元所帶來的影響。

"Theoretically speaking, there is much room for RRR cuts," Mr. Zhou said at the time, while noting that any adjustment of the ratio would depend on how banks' foreign-exchange positions and the balance of international payments affect market liquidity.

周小川當時說，從理論上講，現在下調銀行存款準備金率還有很大的空間。但他同時指出，存款準備金率的任何調整將取決於銀行的外匯頭寸以及國際收支平衡如何影響市場流動性。

A report issued this month by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank, said China could further cut the ratio as the broad money supply has grown more slowly this year. Rapid growth in the money supply tends to lead to inflation.

中國政府頂級智庫中國社會科學院本月發佈的一份報告說，中國可能會進一步下調銀行存款準備金率，因爲今年廣義貨幣供應量增速大幅下滑。貨幣供應量的迅速增加往往會導致通貨膨脹。

That recommendation joined other calls for more monetary loosening to help businesses cope with a credit squeeze that has plagued small businesses in the past year, rather than for the government to unleash another large stimulus package like the one launched during the previous global financial crisis.

上述建議和其它呼籲政府放寬貨幣政策以幫助企業應對信貸緊縮的提議相呼應。在過去一年中信貸緊縮一直困擾着小企業。這一次各方並不建議政府再推出一輪類似上一次全球金融危機期間推出的大規模經濟刺激計劃。

When the yuan was rising strongly, Chinese importers settling their payments in dollars preferred to borrow, rather than buy, dollars from banks. In the past decade, Chinese companies have accumulated about $800 billion in debt from such borrowing, Citigroup's Mr. He estimates.

當人民幣強勁升值時，用美元支付款項的中國進口企業傾向從銀行借入而不是買入美元。花旗集團的賀偉晟估計，在過去十年中，中國企業向銀行借入美元而產生的債務規模累計達到約8,000億美元。

A typical strategy would involve a company depositing yuan on the mainland and using it as collateral to borrow dollars. The company would make money on the difference between the high Chinese deposit rate and the low dollar borrowing rate, also booking a gain from the yuan's appreciation against the dollar.

一個典型的操作手法是，一家公司將人民幣存在內地，並將此作爲抵押品向銀行借入美元。這家企業能夠賺取較高的人民幣存款利率和較低的美元貸款利率之間的息差，同時還能從人民幣對美元匯率的升值中獲益。

"It had been a very profitable strategy throughout the years as the yuan appreciated steadily," Mr. He said. "Now, however, it bears the question how this "short-dollar" position would impact the market when the outlook for yuan appreciation becomes murkier."

賀偉晟說，在人民幣穩步升值的那幾年，這一直是一個非常有利可圖的策略。但如今在人民幣升值前景變得更爲黯淡的情況下，這種做法受到質疑，即這種“賣空美元”的做法將如何影響市場。