中國市場經濟地位遇阻將引爆新貿易戰

China is gearing up for a new round of trade battles with the US,

中國準備迎來與美國、歐盟(EU)及其他主要貿易大國的新一輪貿易戰。

EU and other leading trading powers after failing to secure widespread recognition for a bid to be viewed as a market economy under World Trade Organisation rules.

此前，它主張依據世貿組織(WTO)規則自己應被視爲市場經濟體，但這一主張未能獲得廣泛認可。

Beijing has been pushing for a provision that allows trading partners to use a special formula to calculate punitive tariffs for non-market economies in anti-dumping cases to expire with Sunday’s 15th anniversary of its WTO membership.

北京方面一直力主一項條款應於上週日中國成爲WTO成員國15年週年時終止執行。該條款允許各貿易伙伴國在反傾銷案中，使用一個特殊公式來計算針對非市場經濟體的懲罰性關稅。

But that expiry is now in dispute.

但是，該條款的終止執行如今卻存在爭議。

A move once viewed as automatic has become increasingly contentious after cheap Chinese steel flooded on to world markets and sparked a wave of politically sensitive anti-dumping cases.

該條款曾被認爲應自動終止執行，但由於廉價中國鋼材融入世界市場、引發了一波具有政治敏感性的反傾銷案，這種處理已引起越來越大的爭議。

As a result, China is being forced to challenge new dumping cases brought against it in the US and other jurisdictions in a process that could take years and prove a significant irritant in Beijing’s trade relations with the world.

其結果是，中國將不得不對在美國和其他司法管轄區發起的對華新反傾銷案提出抗辯，這個過程可能會持續數年，併成爲中國與世界貿易關係中的一大問題源。

In a sign of the commercial stakes, the US on Friday imposed punitive anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese-made washing machines,

具有重要商業意義的一個跡象是，上週五美國對輸美中國產洗衣機開徵懲罰性關稅。

imports into the US of which were worth more than $1.1bn last year.

去年，中國對美洗衣機出口額超過11億美元。

It also announced the launch of a new anti-dumping investigation into plywood imports from China,

美國還宣佈，對從中國進口的膠合板發起新的反傾銷調查。

which were also worth more than $1bn last year.

去年，中國對美膠合板出口額超過10億美元。

Those US cases and the fight over Beijing’s market economy status point to the battles over trade already being fought with China even as Donald Trump,

美國發起的反傾銷案，以及圍繞中國市場經濟地位展開的鬥爭，都是與中國正在打的貿易戰的例子。

the incoming president, promises to get tough with Beijing over trade and other issues.

而就在此時，美國侯任總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)發誓要在貿易和其他問題上對中國採取強硬態度。

"One of the most important relations we must improve . . . is our relationship with China," Mr Trump said last week.

我們必須改進的最重要關係之一……就是我們與中國的關係。

"China is responsible for almost half of America's trade deficit [and] they haven't played by the rules."

特朗普上週說，中國對美國將近一半的貿易赤字負責，（而且）他們不按規則行事。

China's Commerce Ministry has vowed to take "necessary measures" against any WTO member that refuses to regard it as a market economy in dumping cases.

中國商務部發誓，要對一切在反傾銷案中拒絕把中國視爲市場經濟體的WTO成員國採取必要措施。

Beijing’s WTO accession agreement says that in any event a clause allowing other nations to use third countries to calculate prices would expire after 15 years.

中國的入世協議稱，在任何情況下，一項允許其他國家使用第三國相關價格水準來計算中方成本的條款都應在15年後終止執行。

Sunday was the 15th anniversary of its accession.

上週日是中國入世15週年。

"This is a question of protecting our rights and maintaining the rules," said Xue Rongjiu, vice-president of the WTO Institute, a think-tank affiliated with the ministry of commerce.

這是一個保護我們權利和維護規則的問題，中國商務部下屬智庫中國世界貿易組織研究會副會長薛榮久說，

China isn't the China of yesteryear.

現在的中國已經不是過去的中國。

The reaction will be firm."

中國的反制將是堅決的。

The US and others argue that China has failed to live up to many of its WTO obligations and remains far from a market economy.

美國和其他國家辯稱，中國未能履行WTO下的許多義務，而且遠非一個市場經濟體。

In the EU, US, UK and elsewhere, the closure of steel plants after a flood of cheap Chinese steel, plus a slowing global economy, caused a collapse in global steel prices that has also driven a political backlash.

在歐盟、美國、英國和其他地區，鋼鐵企業在大量廉價中國鋼材涌入後倒閉，再加上全球經濟增長放緩，導致全球鋼鐵價格大幅下跌，這也引發了政治上的反彈。

Mr Trump and others have seized on the economic impact.

特朗普和其他人對這一經濟衝擊加以了利用。

They have acted like a non-market economy in so many respects with their state-owned companies, with subsidies, with dumping.

考慮到他們的國有企業、補貼和傾銷，他們在很多方面都表現得像是一個非市場經濟體。

I mean there are more dumping cases brought against China than against all the other countries combined, said Sandy Levin, the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee.

我的意思是，對中國發起的反傾銷案比對其他所有國家發起的反傾銷案之和還要多，衆議院籌款委員會(House Ways and Means Committee)最資深的民主黨人桑迪.萊文(Sandy Levin)說。

The debacle has prompted calls for change in the EU in particular.

尤其要指出的是，這種面對中國一敗塗地的局面已在歐盟內部引發了要求改變的呼聲。

Brussels is in the process of considering a fundamental shift in how it conducts anti-dumping and other trade remedy cases to allow it to impose far higher punitive tariffs than it does now.

布魯塞爾方面正考慮徹底改變其操作反傾銷和其他貿易補救案的辦法，使其能夠開徵比現在高得多的懲罰性關稅。

Chad Bown, a former White House economist now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said countries such as Brazil and India have also become much more aggressive in bringing anti-dumping cases against China.

曾任白宮經濟學家、如今在彼得森國際經濟研究所(PIIE)任職的查德.鮑恩(Chad Bown)表示，巴西和印度等國也在對華髮起反傾銷案方面變得比以前積極得多。

This is an issue for China and everybody in the world, not just the US and Europe, Mr Bown said.

這是中國同世界各國、而不只是同美、歐之間的一個問題，鮑恩說。

The commercial fear is that China may not wait for a challenge to the refusal to grant market economy status to work through the WTO system, a process that could take years.

商業界擔心，中國可能不會等到就他國拒絕授予其市場經濟地位提起的申訴走完WTO程序再採取行動。

Instead, it could respond with a wave of retaliatory anti-dumping tariffs of its own that would hurt exporters in other countries.

相反，中國可能會以它自己開徵的一波報復性反傾銷關稅來反制，這將傷及其他國家的出口商。

The debate, however, also comes amid bigger systemic concerns surrounding the WTO and trade.

不過，這場爭論發生的同時，外界對WTO和貿易也產生了更大的系統性擔憂。

Mr Trump won his election on a protectionist platform and he is unlikely to usher in any change in approach on China’s market economy bid.

特朗普是靠保護主義政綱勝選的，他不大可能對美國對待中國市場經濟地位問題的立場作出任何改變。

But both his vow to pull the US out of big Pacific Rim trade negotiations and the scepticism he has expressed about the WTO mean many already see China filling a more important leadership role in global trade talks.

但是，他發誓讓美國退出大規模的環太平洋貿易談判，並表示對WTO持懷疑態度，許多人已據此認爲，中國將在全球貿易談判中扮演更重要的領導角色。

Some question how constructive that Chinese role is likely to be.

一些人懷疑中國扮演的角色到底會有多大建設性。

Beijing’s focus on the market economy debate and other pet issues has also alienated other WTO members, who blamed China for this month’s failure to reach an agreement on the trade in environmental goods.

中國對市場經濟地位和別的其所熱衷的議題的關注，也令其他WTO成員國疏遠了它，這些成員國將本月未能就環境產品貿易達成一項協議歸咎於中國。

If that’s Chinese leadership then we are not going to be doing much in the next five years, said one senior trade official in Geneva.

如果這就是中國的領導作用，那麼我們在未來五年做不成多少事情，日內瓦的一位資深貿易官員表示。

The Chinese side, for its part, is frustrated with developed countries’ apparent double-standards on the market economy access and other issues important for Chinese exporters.

中國一方則對發達國家在市場經濟地位認定和其他對中國出口商而言重要的問題上明顯持雙重標準感到沮喪。