IMF總裁醜聞爲法國選舉增變數

The indictment of ex-IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn on sexual assault charges has upended French politics just a year before presidential elections.

國際貨幣基金組織總裁施特勞斯-卡恩被以性攻擊罪受到起訴，在距離法國總統大選只剩下一年之際擾亂了法國政局。

Just a week ago, Dominique Strauss-Khan headed one of the world's most powerful institutions and appeared likely to run - and win - France's 2012 presidential race. Now Strauss-Kahn has resigned from his job as International Monetary Fund chief and spent several days in prison after allegedly assaulting a hotel maid.

就在一星期前，施特勞斯-卡恩領導着世界上最具影響力的機構之一，還可能出馬競選法國2012年的總統選舉，並且勝選。如今，施特勞斯-卡恩辭去了國際貨幣基金組織總裁一職，並因涉嫌性攻擊一名旅館女服務員而在獄中度過了幾天。

As he prepares for a likely trial in New York, his political career appears over - and France's election landscape has been thrown into turmoil.

正當他在紐約準備出庭審判，他的政治生涯也結束了，而法國的選舉情勢陷入一片混亂。

Like many analysts, France Television reporter and former Washington correspondent Ulysse Gosset, describes the changes as cataclysmic.

法國電視記者和前派駐華盛頓記者戈塞如同許多分析人士一樣，形容這是個大變動。

"It's an earthquake for French politics and probably everything has changed in one week since the scandal has emerged in the United States. It's a big shock for French public opinion," he said.

他說，“這對法國政壇來說是一場大地震，自從醜聞在美國浮現後，所有事情都在一星期內變了。這對法國輿論是個大震撼。”

As the Strauss-Kahn controversy rages here, the political fallout appears unclear. So far, the sexual assault allegations dogging him have not hurt the image of his opposition Socialist party. Indeed, an IPSOS survey this week puts another, less charismatic Socialist politician, Francois Hollande, ahead in the polls, scoring 29 percent of possible votes - 10 points ahead of conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy.

施特勞斯-卡恩的爭議還在席捲法國，它所引發的政治餘波還不明朗。目前爲止，對他的性攻擊指控還沒傷害到他所在的反對黨社會黨。確實，另一名較沒有魅力的社會黨政治人物霍蘭德在這星期一份益普索調查中領先，他可望贏得29%的選票，贏過保守派總統薩科齊10個百分點。

"Holland has started his campaign a few months ago quietly, saying he was a normal man and a good politician. And this image of stability and normality in [this] context is probably going to play in his favor," said Gosset.

記者戈塞說，“霍蘭德在幾個月前就悄悄地展開競選，他說自己是名普通人和好政治家。在這個背景下，這樣穩定和正常的形象可能對他有利。”

The Strauss-Kahn scandal has also benefited another politician - Marine Le Pen, the 42-year-old leader of the far-right National Front and a rising star in French politics.

施特勞斯-卡恩的醜聞也給另一名政治人物馬琳.勒龐帶來好處。42歲的勒龐是極右派國民陣線的領導人，是法國政壇的新星。

Le Pen told French radio Thursday that Strauss-Kahn's indictment definitely puts him out of the presidential race. She has described him as politically discredited.

勒龐星期四對法國廣播電臺說，施特勞斯-卡恩被起訴肯定讓他和總統選舉絕緣了。勒龐形容他政治名譽掃地。Along with support, Strauss-Kahn also earned derision among ordinary French, who criticized his wealthy, "caviar-left" lifestyle. Analyst Philippe Moreau Defarges believes the sexual assault charges now facing him only serve to deepen public disillusionment toward the political establishment.

在受支持之外，施特勞斯-卡恩也成了一般法國民衆的笑柄。他們批評他那優沃的、“吃魚子醬的左派”的生活方式。分析人士德法爾熱相信，他所面臨的性攻擊指控不過是加深了公衆對政治成就的幻想破滅。

"It's clear Strauss-Kahn... is [perceived] as somebody who is above the law... It's why the great winner - and it's a pity - is Mrs. Le Pen. Because first, she's a populist and second point, she's not a traditional politician - she doesn't belong to the club," he said.

他說，“很清楚的，施特勞斯-卡恩被看作是凌駕法律之上的人。這就是爲什麼大贏家是勒龐，這是令人遺憾的。因爲首先她是個名粹份子，其次她不是傳統政治人物，她並不屬於那個俱樂部。”

So far, President Sarkozy has remained uncharacteristically silent about the scandal. In 2007, he championed Strauss-Kahn's candidacy to head the IMF - in part, observers say, to get a rival out of the way.

目前爲止，總統薩科齊對這起醜聞保持異常地沉默。在2007年，他擁護施特勞斯-卡恩角逐國際貨幣基金組織總裁，觀察家說一部分是爲了趕走政敵。

Strauss-Kahn's downfall has not improved Sarkozy's ratings. He remains one of France's most unpopular presidents ever.

施特勞斯-卡恩的垮臺並沒有改善薩科齊的支持度。他還是法國最不受歡迎的總統之一。

Still, journalist Gossett says its too early to write off a second Sarkozy term.

但記者戈塞仍說，消除薩科齊連任的可能性還言之過早。

"He's going to fight right to the end and he's very efficient. So even if the polls are low today, it doesn't mean a thing."

“他會力爭到底，而他很有效率。所以即便今天的民調很低，仍是沒有意義的。”

Next week, Sarkozy hosts the G8 summit in the French city of Deauville - giving him the opportunity to burnish his international statesman's stature.

薩科齊下星期將在法國多維爾市主持八國峯會，這會給他機會發揮國際政治家的才能。

And there are a slew of reports that his glamorous wife, Carla Bruni Sarkozy, is pregnant. The presidency has no comment, but recent pictures of Sarkozy are revealing. That may cast the French president in another flattering light - as a happily married, family man.

同時許多報導說，他迷人的妻子卡拉.布魯尼.薩科齊懷孕了。總統方面沒有評論，但卡拉.布魯尼最近的照片已經曝光。這可能給這位法國總統更討人喜歡的形象：一個幸福已婚又重家庭的男人。