中國貿易形勢仍然嚴峻 China warns of weaker trade in as foreign demand falls
China, the world’s biggest exporter, delivered a gloomy prognosis for the global economy, warning that falling foreign demand would result in weaker trade at home this year.
中國作出了黯淡的全球經濟預測，這個全球最大出口國警告外需下降將導致今年貿易疲軟。
The warning came as the country’s customs office revealed better than expected trade in December, the same month the renminbi saw its second steepest fall since 2005.
發出這一警告之際，中國海關公佈12月貿易情況好於預期，同一個月人民幣兌美元匯率出現2005年以來第二大跌幅。
Economists hailed the improved Chinese export data in December, saying a widening trade surplus could lend support to the renminbi, where declines this month have sparked a stock market sell-off.
經濟學家們歡呼中國12月出口數據出現起色，表示貿易順差擴大可能有助於支持人民幣。本月人民幣下跌引發了股市拋售。
China’s exports, measured in US dollars, declined 1.4 per cent in December month-on-month, narrowing the 6.8 per cent fall seen in November, the customs service said yesterday.
中國海關總署昨日表示，12月中國出口額（以美元計算）環比下降1.4%，比11月6.8%的降幅有所收窄。
Imports fell 7.6 per cent during December, compared with November’s 8.7 per cent drop, as falling commodity prices continued to take a toll. As a result, China’s trade surplus widened to $60.1bn in the final month of 2015.
12月進口下降7.6%，而11月的降幅爲8.7%，大宗商品價格下降繼續產生影響。其結果是，中國的貿易順差在2015年最後一個月擴大至601億美元。
Economists said the figures were better than expected: a Bloomberg poll had forecast an 8 per cent decline.
經濟學家們表示該數據好於預期；彭博社(Bloomberg)此前預計跌幅爲8%。
While cautioning against pinning too much on one month’s figures, Julia Wang, Greater China economist for HSBC bank, said: “It should take some pressure off the renminbi in the near term.”
匯豐(HSBC)大中華區經濟學家王然(Julia Wang)在告誡不要過於看重一個月數據的同時表示：“這將在短期內減輕人民幣的一部分壓力。”
Analysts scoured the figures for clues as to whether the depreciation of the renminbi has improved the competitiveness of the Chinese economy.
分析師們在這些數據中尋找線索，以推斷人民幣貶值是否提高了中國經濟的競爭力。
Analysts were split on the impact of December’s 1.5 per cent drop in the renminbi against the US dollar on the trade data.
但在12月人民幣兌美元匯率下跌1.5%對貿易數據產生了什麼影響的問題上，分析師們意見分歧。
Commerzbank said the weaker renminbi probably contributed to the stronger trade performance. Ms Wang, however, noted that the renminbi had been far more stable against the basket of foreign currencies tracked by China’s central bank — a better trade reference since the US accounts for just one-fifth of China’s trade.
德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)表示，人民幣走弱很可能促進了比較強勁的貿易表現。匯豐的王然卻指出，相對於中國央行追蹤的一籃子貨幣，人民幣匯率穩定得多，這是個更好的貿易參考，因爲美國只佔中國貿易的五分之一。
“The amount of weakness that has taken place with respect to basket of currencies is far more modest, so it shouldn’t have been the biggest factor behind the trade number,” she said.
王然表示：“相對於一籃子貨幣而言，人民幣的走弱程度要小得多，因此它不應是影響12月貿易數字的最大因素。”
Figures for the whole of 2015 showed China’s exports contracted 2.8 per cent and imports fell 14.1 per cent, in US dollar terms.
2015年全年數據顯示，中國出口（以美元計算）萎縮2.8%，進口下跌14.1%。
Commerzbank said in a research note that slowing imports highlighted the country’s sluggish demand for commodities.
德國商業銀行在一份研究報告中表示，進口放緩凸顯中國對大宗商品需求低迷。
“This reflects China’s transition towards a more consumption-driven growth model, which has damped demand for bulk commodities,” analysts at Commerzbank said, adding it was also attributable to a slowdown in the property market.
該行分析師表示：“這反映了中國轉向在更大程度上由消費驅動的增長模式，大宗商品需求因而受到抑制。”他們還表示房地產市場低迷也是原因之一。
