香港地產股還未見底 Hong Kong property piling up
Hong Kong is not known for being cheap — except, perhaps, for plastic toys in the 1980s. At the opposite end of the spectrum sits Hong Kong property. Shoebox dwellings of 170 sq ft can cost up to $400,000.
香港並不以廉價著稱——或許上世紀80年代的塑料玩具除外。位於價格頂端是香港的房地產。170平方英尺的蝸居，價格可能高達40萬美元。
With those sums in mind, Hong Kong property stocks might look oversold. After falling 30 per cent since last June, Barclays says shares in developers including Henderson Land and Sun Hung Kai Properties anticipate property price declines of up to one quarter.
考慮到這樣的價位，香港的地產股看起來可能處於超賣的狀態。巴克萊(Barclays)表示，自去年6月以來，恆基兆業地產(Henderson Land)和新鴻基地產(Sun Hung Kai Properties)等地產開發商的股價下跌了30%，這預示着香港房地產價格將下降高達四分之一。
That may sound extreme. Prices are down a mere 4 per cent from peaks. But the fall in share prices makes sense all the same. After five years of rises since 2009, property prices are showing signs of softening, with the Centa-City Leading Index dropping for four consecutive weeks.
這聽起來或許有些極端。目前房價相比頂峯僅下降4%。儘管如此，股價的下跌依然合乎情理。香港房價在2009年之後的5年都在上漲，現在表現出疲軟的跡象，中原城市領先指數(Centa-City Leading Index)已連續4周下降。
Transactions, an indicator of confidence in current pricing, have also slowed. October residential unit sales were the lowest in 19 months, according to the Land Registry.
衡量市場對當前定價的信心的指標——房產成交量——也放緩了。根據香港土地註冊處(Land Registry)的統計，10月份的住宅成交量是19個月以來最低的。
A greater threat, though, comes from US interest rates. With the Hong Kong currency pegged to the US dollar, any rise in US rates exports a similar increase to the Chinese territory. For high-end property, the difference between mortgage rates and rental yields is already low, at 35 basis points, according to real estate agent Savills. A 25bp rise, along with falling rents, could lead to more secondary supply hitting the market as mortgage financing becomes onerous.
然而，更大的威脅來自於美國利率。由於港元盯住美元，美國利率的任何上升都會導致香港的利率出現類似的上升。根據地產機構第一太平戴維斯(Savills)的數字，對於高端房地產而言，房貸利率和租金收益率之間的差值已經很低，爲35個基點。如果利率提高25個基點，加上租金下降，供房貸的負擔會變得沉重，這可能導致更多二手房地產供應衝擊市場。
For Hong Kong developers, this does not look like a worry yet. In the 12 months to June, Sun Hung Kai reported margins of 40 per cent on residential property sales in Hong Kong. Analysts note, however, that recent primary launches indicate price declines of between a tenth and a fifth as developers try to offload inventory ahead of rate rises. In the long run, too, the government is keen to encourage more supply to keep prices down.
對香港房地產開發商而言，這看起來還不像是一件需要擔心的事情。新鴻基報告稱，在截至6月的12個月裏，其在香港的住宅地產銷售的利潤率爲40%。然而，分析人士指出，隨着開發商試圖在利率上升前去庫存，最近的新房發售顯示房地產價格的跌幅爲十分之一到五分之一之間。長期來看也是如此，政府熱衷於鼓勵增加房地產供給，以平抑房地產價格。
Property stocks in Hong Kong look cheap and can get cheaper still.
香港的地產股看起來很便宜，而且還可能變得更便宜。
