資本外流引發中國經濟牛熊之辯 Capital outflows reignite debate between China bulls and bears

China’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped for four straight quarters, leading to a fresh round of warnings about capital outflows.

中國外匯儲備連續四個季度出現下降，引發新一輪關於資本外流的警告。

Interpreting capital flows has long been a favourite parlour game for Chinese economy watchers. An analyst’s view on “hot money” outflows is often an indication of his or her broader stance towards the world's largest economy.

對於關注中國經濟的觀察人士來說，解讀資本流動一直是他們最喜歡的猜謎遊戲。一名分析師對於“熱錢”流出的看法，往往說明了他/她對全球第二大經濟體的整體看法。

For those who believe China’s economic slowdown is worsening and risks from spiralling debt and wasteful investment are propelling the country toward a financial crisis, the spectre of capital flight lurks behind each new data point. They view capital outflows as a sign of waning confidence in China, and they warn that outflows will drain liquidity from the domestic economy, making it harder for companies and local governments to raise funds.

對那些認爲經濟增長放緩加劇，同時來自債務負擔加重和投資浪費的風險正推動中國滑向金融危機的人來說，每一個新的數據點背後都隱藏着資本外逃的幽靈。在他們看來，資本外流是人們對中國信心減弱的標誌，他們警告稱，資本外流將從國內經濟抽走流動性，加大企業和地方政府的融資難度。

For more bullish analysts, moderate capital outflows are a sign that China is liberalising capital controls and abandoning its mercantilist obsession with accumulating foreign reserves. They believe that domestic liquidity concerns are unwarranted, since the People's Bank of China has plenty of new mechanisms to expand the money supply to replace the liquidity once created by foreign capital inflows.

對那些比較樂觀的分析師來說，適度資本外流表明中國在放寬資本管制，放棄癡迷於積累外匯儲備的重商主義。他們認爲，沒有必要爲中國國內的流動性擔憂，因爲中國央行(PBoC)有很多新的機制可以擴大貨幣供應量，取代一度由外資流入創造的流動性。

Now, with the Federal Reserve preparing to raise interest rates and the Chinese stock market suffering big losses, capital flow trends have taken on even greater importance. Higher US rates are likely to draw capital out of China and other emerging markets, which could place even greater downward pressure on Chinese share prices.

現在，隨着美聯儲(Federal Reserve)準備提高利率，隨着中國股市出現大幅下跌，資本流動趨勢顯得愈發重要。美國利率上升可能從中國等新興市場吸走資金，這可能給中國股價帶來更大的下行壓力。

“The trend of rising outflows reflects policy measures to facilitate outward investments and the lack of stable domestic investment opportunities, with an additional short-run boost in outflows due to stock price volatility and concerns about growth prospects,” said Eswar Prasad, former head of the China division at the IMF, in a nod to both the bullish and bearish views.

“資本流出增加的趨勢，反映了放開對外投資的政策措施，也反映了國內缺乏穩定的投資機會。股價波動和對經濟增長前景的擔憂也是助長流出的短期理由，”IMF中國部前負責人埃斯瓦爾渠拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，他的言論綜合了樂觀和悲觀兩個陣營的觀點。

After hitting an all-time high of $3.99tn at the end of June 2014, reserves have fallen by $299bn. Analysts broadly agree that China has experienced capital outflows on an unprecedented scale. But they disagree about their size, causes, and the risk to the economy.

中國外匯儲備在2014年6月底觸及3.99萬億美元的史上最高峯之後，已經減少了2990億美元。分析師們大多同意，中國經歷了規模空前的資本流出。但他們對於資本流出的規模、原因及其對經濟構成的風險各執己見。

Goldman Sachs analysts led by New York-based chief foreign exchange strategist Robin Brooks raised the alarm with their estimate that net capital outflows in the second quarter alone totalled about $200bn. “Capital outflows have become very sizeable and now eclipse anything seen in the recent past,” Mr Brooks wrote.

以常駐紐約的首席外匯策略師羅賓布魯克斯(Robin Brooks)爲首的高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師拉響了警報，他們估計，僅第二季度的淨資本流出總額就達到大約2000億美元。“資本外流的規模已變得非常可觀，現在已超過近年任何時候，”布魯克斯寫道。

JPMorgan has also furrowed its brow at China’s capital flow data. Strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in London estimate capital outflows amounted to $520bn combined over the past five quarters. “The current capital outflow episode in China is a more sustained and severe episode relative to those seen in the past,” they wrote.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)也對中國的資本流動數據感到悲觀。以常駐倫敦的尼可拉斯堠尼吉左格魯(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)爲首的幾名策略師估計，過去五個季度的資本流出總額達到5200億美元。“相對於以往的資本外流，中國此輪資本外流更持久和嚴重，”他們寫道。

Yet several China-based economists caution that Goldman and JPMorgan use estimates that fail to account for subtler factors. In a report published several days after Mr Panigirtzoglou’s, JPMorgan’s own chief China economist, Zhu Haibin, obliquely contradicted his colleague’s estimate by citing several reasons that made him believe that the estimates were inflated.

然而，多名中國經濟學家告誡稱，高盛和摩根大通所用的估計，沒有考慮到一些比較細微的因素。在潘尼吉左格魯的報告發表幾天後，摩根大通的首席中國經濟學家朱海斌婉轉地反駁了同事們的估計，他提出了幾條理由，以證明同事們的估算數據偏高。

One is a shift in China’s foreign exchange holdings between the central bank and the private sector. Until recently, the PBoC held almost all foreign exchange within China as official reserves, while banks, companies, and households held little.

理由之一是中國外匯儲備在央行和私營部門之間的轉移。直到不久以前，中國央行持有中國幾乎所有外匯作爲官方儲備，而銀行、企業和家庭持有極少外匯。

This was due largely to the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market. At its peak, the PBoC purchased hundreds of millions of dollars a month in order to restrain renminbi appreciation. Chinese banks and companies, for their part, were happy to fob off their dollars on to the PBoC, since they stood to profit from the slow but steady renminbi appreciation between 2005 and 2013.

這在很大程度上是由於央行干預匯市。在干預力度最大的時期，央行爲了抑制人民幣升值每月買入數億美元。而中國的銀行和企業樂意把美元交給央行，因爲在2005年至2013年期間他們獲利於緩慢但穩定的人民幣升值。

That changed last year, when the renminbi suffered its first significant full-year depreciation in more than 20 years. Now many Chinese exporters who receive payments in dollars simply hold them, rather than buying local currency. Though these dollars no longer swell the central bank’s coffers, the money remains inside China and so should not be viewed as “outflows”, economists say.

這種情況在去年發生變化；去年人民幣出現逾20年來首次顯著的全年貶值。如今，很多收到美元付款的中國出口企業選擇持有美元，而不是兌換成人民幣。經濟學家們表示，雖然這些美元不再擴大央行的金庫，但這筆錢仍然在中國境內，因此不應被視爲“流出”。

Mr Zhu estimates that “corporate balance sheet adjustment” explains $205bn in apparent capital outflow over the past four quarters.

朱海斌估計，“企業資產負債表調整”可以解釋過去四個季度貌似的2050億美元資本流出。

“The central bank aims to shift the FX asset holding into the non-government sector. In that sense, the corporate balance sheet adjustment is a desirable outcome for policymakers,” Mr Zhu wrote.

“央行力求將外匯資產轉移到非政府部門。從這個意義上說，企業的資產負債表調整對政策制定者來說是一個可取的結果，”朱海斌寫道。

Economists expect mild capital outflows from China to continue, but most analysts do not see cause for alarm. They note that China’s foreign exchange reserves are still by far the world’s largest and that a significant chunk of capital outflow is due to intentional policy choices by the Chinese government, rather than panicked investors seeking an exit.

經濟學家們預計中國將繼續出現溫和的資本外流，但大多數分析師認爲沒有理由感到恐慌。他們指出，中國仍擁有全球最大外匯儲備，資本外流有很大一部分是中國政府刻意的政策選擇，而不是恐慌的投資者在尋求退出。

Finally, they note that while China has liberalised capital flows significantly, remaining controls still severely limit the ability of investors to transfer large sums abroad.

最後，他們指出，雖然中國已經顯著放開資本流動限制，但尚存的管制措施依然嚴重限制投資者將大筆款項轉移到境外的能力。

“Concerns about the outflows are exaggerated, especially as regards to outflows in the second quarter, which stabilised rather than worsened,” said Wang Tao, China economist at UBS.

“對於外流的擔憂被誇大了，尤其是關於第二季度的流出，流出實際上是企穩，而不是惡化了，”瑞銀(UBS)首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示。