用度假營救希臘的笑話 The Club Med Marshall Plan
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幾年前，我曾與一些歐美政策制定者同桌吃飯，有美酒佳餚相伴，賓客們相談甚歡。聊着聊着，話題轉向了希臘。“你知道什麼才能解決那兒的問題嗎？”一位經濟學家開懷大笑道：“度假營！”
A couple of years ago, I was chatting with some American and European policy makers over a lively, wine-fuelled dinner when the topic turned to Greece. “You know what would solve the problems there?” one of the economists declared, grinning broadly. “Holiday camps!”
“度假營？”我困惑地問道。這位經濟學家用餐巾作演示，提出了這個想法。他的計劃分爲兩步。第一步需要動用些德國納稅人的錢，建造或翻新希臘那些美不勝收的度假勝地，只僱傭當地勞動者。然後再指定第二筆納稅人資金，用於給德國退休人士發放度假代金券，讓他們能夠享有一個費用全包的假期，但這些代金券只能“花在”希臘那些度假勝地上。
“Holiday camps?” I asked, baffled. Using his napkin to illustrate the point, the economist proposed an idea. It had two parts. The first entailed using a pot of German taxpayers’ money to build or renovate fabulous holiday resorts in Greece, exclusively using local labour. Then a second slug of taxpayer funds would be earmarked to give German pensioners vouchers entitling them to an all-inclusive holiday — but which could only be “spent” at those Greek resorts.
我的這位同席夥伴認爲，這個協議將爲希臘的經濟活力帶來亟需的提振，還能迫使德國將一部分盈餘現金在境外花掉，從而有助於扭轉歐洲內部的經常賬戶失衡。但他認爲這個計劃最棒的地方在於，至少與另一個選項——將德國納稅人的錢填到陷入困境的歐元區銀行的黑洞裏——相比，它爲德國納稅人提供了一些他們喜歡，從而有可能在政治上支持的東西。這位經濟學家在全桌人的爆笑聲中總結道，“如此一來，德國退休人士開心了，希臘服務員也開心了”，這個計劃堪稱“完美的地中海俱樂部(Club Med)版馬歇爾計劃(Marshall Plan)”！
That deal would give Greece a badly needed boost of economic activity, my dining companion argued. It would also force Germans to spend some of their surplus cash outside their borders, thus helping to reverse Europe’s current account imbalances. But the best thing of all about the scheme, he argued, is that it would give German taxpayers something they liked — and thus might politically support — at least compared with the other option: pouring taxpayer money into the black hole of troubled eurozone banks. “This way, you get happy German pensioners and happy Greek waiters!” the economist concluded, to howls of laughter, dubbing this “the perfect Club Med Marshall Plan!”
這無疑是個有趣的想法。每當我在飯桌上或是會場講臺上講起這個段子，總是能活躍氣氛。比如本月早些時候，我在阿斯彭理念節(Aspen Ideas festival)上主持一場關於希臘的（激烈）辯論時，隨口提到這個凱恩斯主義(Keynesian)的度假營計劃，引發了現場亟需的鬨堂大笑。
It is certainly a colourful idea. And whenever I relate this story over dinner or from a conference podium, it always lightens the mood. Earlier this month, for example, I chaired a (very heated) debate about Greece at the Aspen Ideas Festival and when I tossed in a reference to this Keynesian holiday-camp plan, it sparked peals of badly needed laughter.
正如瑪麗匠格拉斯(Mary Douglas)等人類學家所指出，笑話從來不是無關緊要或瘋狂的東西。笑話之所以有感染力、並且好笑，是因爲它們顛覆了正常的社會與認知秩序，揭示了我們通常寧願視而不見的矛盾。因此隨着希臘緊張局勢持續升級，我們有必要停下來探究一個問題，即爲什麼這個“地中海俱樂部”版解決方案聽上去那麼好笑？關於歐洲領導人現在不願談論的那些話題，它揭示了什麼？
Jokes, as anthropologists such as Mary Douglas have pointed out, are never irrelevant or crazy things; they are powerful — and funny — because they subvert the normal social and cognitive order, revealing contradictions that we usually prefer to ignore. So as tensions keep bubbling around Greece, it is worth pausing to ask why this Club Med concept sounds funny. What does it reveal about the topics that European leaders do not want to talk about right now?
在我看來，這個笑話揭示了兩點。第一，歐洲政治經濟的一個根本致命缺陷是，選民很難感覺到自己受益於政府四處揮灑的大筆歐元。如果納稅人的錢被用來建造橋樑或資助學校，起碼這些東西是看得見摸得着、可以讓他們受益的。選民甚至可能還會感激。但把錢投入銀行，這就沒人能看到了，量化寬鬆是一種空洞無形的東西。因此，這個用國家資金爲老百姓的生活增加樂趣的想法聽起來就像個笑話。現如今，幸福快樂被默認爲只能從私營部門找到，與歐盟官員無關。難怪選民們不開心。
To my mind, there are two of these. The first is that a fundamental — deadly — flaw in Europe’s political economy is that it is very hard for voters to feel that they are benefiting from all the zillions of euros that governments are chucking around. If taxpayers’ money is being used to build bridges or fund schools, that is something that can be tangibly witnessed and enjoyed. Voters might even feel grateful. But pouring money into banks is not something that anyone can see; quantitative easing is a disembodied, intangible thing. Hence the fact that the idea of using state funds to make people’s lives more enjoyable sounds like a joke; these days, happiness and fun are presumed to be a private-sector experience, not something associated with eurocrats. Little wonder that voters are glum.
關於爲什麼地中海俱樂部方案如此有感染力的第二個原因，是我們似乎很難想象歐元區各國政府會爲集體利益親密無間地合作。理論上，單一貨幣體系想實現良好運行效果，最好的、事實上也是唯一的方法就是，歐洲內部能夠擰成一股繩，像一個整體經濟區那樣運行，每個區域都能專注於自己最擅長的領域，讓勞動力和資本往需要的地方流動，就像亞當斯密(Adam Smith)關於勞動分工的概念所描述的那樣。
But the second reason why the Club Med idea is striking is that it seems impossibly difficult to imagine the eurozone governments working together seamlessly for the common good. In theory, the best — or indeed only — way that a single-currency regime can function well is if Europe runs itself as a single, cohesive economic area, where each region can specialise in what it does best, with labour and capital moving to suit, echoing Adam Smith’s concept of a division of labour.
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別的地方是有這樣的例子的。比如美國佛羅里達州，近幾十年來，這個州將自己打造成了所謂的“雪鳥”，即美國北方居民的首選目的地，從而實現了經濟繁榮。每年，尤其到了冬季，前往佛羅里達州避寒的“雪鳥”數以百萬計，有些人在那兒買了房，或在那兒退休養老。之所以有這麼多人這麼做，是因爲佛羅里達的物價相對便宜，遷入門檻不高，而且在語言、文化、法律制度等方面與美國北方相同。
This happens elsewhere. Think, for example, about Florida. In recent decades, the state has flourished by turning itself into a prime destination for “snowbirds”, or Americans who live in the north. Every year, millions of these snowbirds visit Florida, particularly in winter; some buy homes or retire there. And they do so in large numbers because Florida is relatively cheap and accessible and shares a common language, culture, legal system and so on with the north.
歐洲也有“雪鳥”，看看地中海海灘上坐着的那些蒼白的英國人、德國人和瑞典人就知道了。但歐洲的“雪鳥”現象沒有應有的那樣盛行，因爲文化、語言和法律上的差異持續存在。事實上，2010年代伊始，德國前往希臘的遊客人數急劇下降。雖然去年遊客數量有所回升，但眼下的危機似乎再一次把遊客們嚇跑了。希臘和德國的有錢人反倒是紛紛涌向邁阿密等地購買房產。
European snowbirds exist too; look at those pale Brits, Germans and Swedes sitting on Mediterranean beaches. But the snowbird phenomenon does not flourish as much as it could, because of continued cultural, linguistic and legal divides. Indeed, German tourist visits to Greece fell sharply at the start of this decade. And while visits rebounded last year, the current crisis seems to be scaring tourists away again. Instead, rich Greeks and Germans have been flocking to buy property in places such as Miami.
這對希臘而言是痛苦的，因爲旅遊業佔了希臘國內生產總值(GDP)的五分之一。這也與經濟意義上讓歐元區行得通所必須發生的事情恰好相反。所以纔有了那位經濟學家關於地中海俱樂部版馬歇爾計劃的笑話。
This is painful for Greece, which draws a fifth of its GDP from tourism. But it is also the opposite of what needs to occur, in an economic sense, to make the eurozone work. Hence my dining companion’s joke about the Club Med Marshall Plan.
他的玩笑話有朝一日會成爲現實嗎？幾乎肯定不會。如果有人建議強行將德國退休人士送到希臘度假，這個人會被抗議聲淹沒的。但歐洲的情況越糟糕，我們就會越需要瘋狂的想法，甚至是笑話。而這不止因爲我們需要笑一笑，還因爲笑話揭示了政客們沒有在談論的事，即，如果歐元區計劃想要有成功的那一天，歐洲必須出現認知和文化上的飛躍。不管德國退休人士去不去地中海海灘度假。
Might this ever happen? Almost certainly not: if somebody suggested forcibly bussing German pensioners to Greece for holidays, they would get shouted down. But the worse things get in Europe, the more we need crazy ideas, if not jokes. And not just because we need to laugh, but because jokes reveal what politicians are not talking about: namely, the cognitive and cultural leap that must occur in Europe if that eurozone project is ever going to truly fly. With or without those German pensioners on the beach.
