美元可能會掀起第二次旋風
The U.S. dollar has slumped lately following a breath-taking rally.
美元在驚人的強勢後開始暴跌。Since mid-April, the dollar has declined by 7% versus the euro and 6% versus the British pound, moving b ack to levels last seen around January.
從4月中旬開始,美元兌歐元已經下跌了7% , 兌英鎊下跌了6% ,已經跌回了一月份的級別。The greenback enjoyed its fastest rise in 40 years in the back half of 2014 and early 2015.
美元在2014年下半年和2015年早期經歷了它40年來最快的漲幅。
But now, after a clear bout of weakness, currency strategists are split over whether the currency will rally again.
到現在，在一輪明顯的走弱之後，對貨幣政策是否應該重新走強存在分歧。Here are the main factors behind the decline:
下面是這輪下跌的主要因素：1. Weaker-than-expected economy: Traders have pushed the dollar lower after a string of disappointing ec onomic releases raised questions over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later th is year, as previously expected.
1.比預期更弱的經濟：在令人沮喪的經濟數據提升了對美聯儲是否會如期在今年下半年上調利率的質疑後，貿易商推動美元走弱。"If we continue to see weak economic data, then a rate hike could be priced out for 2015 altogether," sa id Kathleen Brooks, a research director at . "The (dollar) downtrend seems fairly entrenched."
“如果我們繼續看到疲弱的經濟數據，那麼, 2015年上調利率是不可能的,”FOREX市場調研總監凱思林·布呂克斯說：“（美元）走弱趨勢看起來已經建立。”But others think a dollar rebound may be around the corner.
但是,其他一些人認爲，美元反彈即將來臨。"Although currency markets remain disappointed with U.S. economic data and have therefore curtailed the strong dollar bias, the majority of economists still believe that the Fed will hike in September," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management.
布魯克斯資產管理公司外匯策略總經理鮑里斯·斯伯格說，"即使貨幣市場被美國經濟數據拖累，並因此減弱了強美元的趨勢，主流經濟學家仍然相信，美聯儲將在9月份上調利率。"If a rate hike comes in September, "the greenback could get its groove back relatively quickly," he said.
如果利率在9月份被上調，他說，"美元指數就會相對快速的反彈。"Shahab Jalinoos, head of global FX strategy at Credit Suisse, predicts the recent pullback is temporary.
瑞士信貸全球戰略經理謝哈布·傑裏努斯預測，最近的下跌是暫時的。"The recent [dollar] pause fits the pattern of previous bull markets," he said in a research report. "Given how far and fast the dollar had run, a consolidation was overdue."
"最近的“美元”下跌符合之前的牛市節奏，"他在一份調研報告中說，"考慮到美元升值的速度和廣度，反彈一定會到來。"Jalinoos said the average pullback after a big dollar rally is 6% and lasts for roughly two months, on average.
傑裏努斯說，這個在美元大升值過程中的一般性下跌是6%，會維持大概兩個月，一般來說。2. Strength in Europe: Market strategists were chattering non-stop in January about Europe's economic weakness and deflation concerns. The euro dropped sharply as the dollar was powering forward, but now the trend has reversed as the eurozone has performed better than expected and deflation concerns have receded.
2.歐洲的強勢：市場策略顧問們在一月份總是對歐洲經濟的疲弱和通貨緊縮的擔憂喋喋不休。歐元之前兌美元急劇下跌，但是，現在情況翻轉過來了，歐元區表現比之前估計的要好得多，通貨緊縮的擔憂已經不大了。Citi currency specialist Steven Englander explained that it's more about the euro strength right now and less about the dollar weakness.
花旗銀行貨幣專家史蒂文·英格蘭德解釋稱，更多是因爲歐元走強，而不是美元走弱。Furthermore, bond yields in Europe have bounced back recently.
此外，歐洲的債券收益率最近也反彈了。"The yield story has ... been a key underlying force (behind the euro), given the reversal we've seen in European yields and in particular Germany," said Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro.
福寶外匯的高級經濟學家西蒙·史密斯說，"考慮到歐洲收益率尤其是德國收益率的翻轉，收益率是。。。一個（在歐元背後）讓歐元走強的潛在力量。"But Credit Suisse's Jalinoos thinks the euro will drop back down in the second half of the year.
但是，瑞士信貸的吉利努斯認爲，歐元將在今年下半年貶回去。
