Space X公司需要面對最大的挑戰有哪些

All said, SpaceX is having a really good year. Over the past several months the company has been to orbit four times (a fifth visit was scheduled for this week, but it was postponed). During those visits, it has successfully placed various commercial satellites in orbit and resupplied the International Space Station at NASA’s behest. The company inked new deals with British satellite giant Inmarsat, unveiled its new crew-capable Dragon V2 space vehicle, successfully tested 3-D printed rocket parts during a live launch—which has the potential to reduce costs—made inroads into the lucrative national defense satellite launch market, and began testing, with some degree of success, a reusable first rocket stage that could drive down the company’s launch costs by an order of magnitude and further solidify its role as the least expensive launch provider in the market.

所有人都覺得，Space X公司正在經歷一個非常不錯的年景。過去幾個月來，該公司已經4次將衛星送上軌道（計劃於本週進行第5次發射因故延期）。在這幾次發射中，它成功將不同的商用衛星送入軌道，並按美國宇航局（NASA）的要求爲國際空間站重新補給。該公司與英國衛星巨頭Inmarsat公司簽訂了新合同，推出了全新的載人飛船龍V2號(Dragon V2)，在一次實際發射中成功測試了3D打印的火箭零部件——此舉有望降低發射成本，並打入利潤豐厚的國防衛星發射市場。此外，它還開始測試一款可重複使用的一級火箭，並取得了一定成功，這將顯著降低公司的發射成本，並進一步鞏固其作爲最廉價火箭發射供應商的市場地位。

On Tuesday, Fortune published an article intended to cut through the hype surrounding SpaceX—in particular rumors of an astronomical $10 billion valuation—by looking at its commercial space launch competitors and the crisis posture some have assumed as they attempt to deal with SpaceX. Next to those competitors, which include France’s Arianespace (partially owned by Airbus), International Launch Services (a Russian-American joint venture using Russian launch technology), and United Launch Alliance (a Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture), SpaceX and its nimble, startup-like culture seem to have the upper hand.

上週二，《財富》雜誌(Fortune)刊發了一篇文章，意在深入剖析圍繞Space X公司的種種傳聞——尤其是該公司猶如天文數字的100億美元估值。這篇文章檢視了該公司在商業航空發射市場的競爭對手，以及一些公司在在試圖跟Space X進行交易時所表現出來的危機感。Space X對手衆多，包括法國阿利安太空公司【Arianespace，空中客車公司（Airbus）持有該公司部分股份）、國際發射服務公司（International Launch Services，一家採用俄羅斯發射技術的俄美合資企業）和聯合發射聯盟公司【United Launch Alliance，波音公司（Boeing）和洛克希德馬丁公司（Lockheed Martin）的合資企業）。和它們相比，Space X的初創公司文化似乎佔據上風。

This all makes for a good story, but what about that multimillion-dollar valuation? Can SpaceX turn the hype into cold, hard profit? The commercial spaceflight industry is a highly competitive, immensely capital-intensive environment saturated by the world’s largest and most respected legacy aerospace firms. For that reason, SpaceX’s biggest challenges lay ahead. Here’s a look at what the firm faces.

僅憑這些素材足以撰寫一篇精彩的報道，但上百億美元的估值是怎麼回事呢？Space X公司能否把這些神乎其神的吹捧變成硬邦邦的利潤？畢竟，商用航天是一個競爭激烈、資本高度密集的產業，長期以來一直由全球最大也最受尊敬的傳奇航空航天公司所把持。正是出於這種原因，Space X未來還將面臨巨大挑戰。下面就讓我們逐一分析這些挑戰：

Opportunity. Before September is over, NASA will make a decision on which one, possibly two, of three different spacecraft it will select to be the federal agency’s new crew vehicle for ferrying astronauts to destinations in orbit such as the International Space Station. The winner of that contract is looking at $800 million for spacecraft development up front and an accumulated award of billions of dollars by the time the spacecraft enter service sometime in 2017. SpaceX is in the hunt alongside Boeing and Sierra Nevada Corp. A win for SpaceX would guarantee SpaceX a revenue stream from NASA and certainly wouldn’t hurt its R&D efforts. It would also be another big endorsement from the world’s premier space agency.

機遇。最遲到九月底，美國宇航局就將從三種不同飛船中選擇一種，也可能是兩種，作爲這家聯邦機構的新型載人飛行器，這些飛行器將把宇航員送往國際空間站這樣的軌道目的地。贏得這份合同的公司將獲得8億美元預付款，用於飛船的前期研發，到2017年飛船交付使用時，還將獲得數十億美元的收益。Space X、波音公司及內華達山脈公司（Sierra Nevada Corp）都有機會贏得這份合同。如果Space X勝出，就能確保從美國宇航局獲得穩定收入，也會讓它的研發投入不至於付諸東流。這也是全球頂級航空機構對其實力的又一次意義重大的背書。

Reliability. SpaceX has thus far managed to retain a strong record of reliability, even correcting near-mishaps mid-mission in some cases. However, over the weekend it lost a test rocket (which, in SpaceX’s defense, is what test rockets are for) at its test facility in Texas and delayed a rocket launch scheduled for Tuesday in the interest of extra caution. It’s far from the first time SpaceX has delayed a launch. “I think one thing that could tilt the market away from SpaceX is if it can’t launch when it says it’s going to launch,” says Kate Maliga, an industry analyst at aerospace and defense consultancy Tauri Group. “Most of the money in satellites is in the services they provide, so you need your satellite up there to make money. That’s the biggest risk.” Managing that risk and maintaining a regular launch schedule is imperative.

可靠性。迄今爲止，就可靠性而言，Space X一直設法保持着良好的記錄，甚至還在幾次發射過程中糾正了即將發生的事故。但上週末，該公司卻在其德克薩斯州試驗基地損失了一枚試驗火箭（公司辯解稱，這正是試驗火箭的用途），同時出於多一份謹慎的原則，推遲了本定於週二進行的火箭發射。這遠不是Space X第一次推遲發射了。航空和國防諮詢公司金牛座集團（Tauri Group）的行業分析師凱特o馬麗嘉表示：“我認爲，如果Space X表示自己準備發射，實際上卻沒能成功發射，它就將損失市場份額。衛星的大部分價值在於它提供的服務，所以必須讓衛星始終在軌道上運行才能掙錢。這就是最大的風險所在。”管理好這一風險並保持有規律的發射計劃至關重要。

Scalability. Launching rockets isn’t the kind of thing a company can do every single day—there are limited launch windows and a limited amount of infrastructure in the world capable of launching them. To continue on its current trajectory, SpaceX has to scale. A new dedicated launch facility at Boca Chica Beach on the Texas-Mexico border—it already launches from Cape Canaveral in Florida—will offer greater capacity to launch independent of other factors beyond its control. But SpaceX will also have to scale its rocket production capacity while maintaining its record of reliability and safety, making this arguably the company’s biggest test going forward. “If they can get up to eight [launches this year] that’s great,” Maliga says. “They say they’ll do 10 to 15 per year, and if they get to that point that would be quite a threat.”

規模化。一個公司不可能每天都發射火箭——全球各地的發射時間和基礎設施都非常有限。而如果要保持目前的發展軌跡，Space X公司就要實現規模化。一個位於博卡奇卡海灘（Boca Chica Beach，地處德州和墨西哥邊境）的全新發射裝置——該公司已經在佛羅里達州卡納維拉爾角建立了發射裝置——將提供更大的發射能力，不再受到無法掌控的其他因素影響。但在保持可靠性和安全記錄的同時，該公司還必須提高火箭的生產能力，從而使這項據稱是該公司的最大試驗得以繼續進行。馬麗嘉稱：“如果公司今年能發射8次，那就很棒了。他們說今後每年能發射10到15次，真能這樣的話，那肯定會對其他對手構成重大威脅。”

Reusability. This year, SpaceX began experimenting with reusable first rocket stages that could one day be recovered, refurbished, and used for multiple flights. Considering most of the sunk costs in the space launch enterprise go into rocket stages that are used once and destroyed, this could significantly alter the economics of space launch.

重複使用能力。今年Space X開始試驗可重複使用的一級火箭，將來它可以回收、翻新，多次發射。考慮到航空發射企業絕大多數沉沒成本都是發射一次即告銷燬的多級火箭帶來的，這種新型火箭將極大改善航空發射的經濟性。

That last point is particularly important, as it will once again impact SpaceX’s competitors ability to keep pace. Three-tenths of one percent of the cost of a rocket launch is tied up in the propellant, New Space Global’s David says. Most of the remaining cost comes from throwing away the rest of the hardware. Of that, three quarters is tied up in the first rocket stage. Solving the reusability problem will not only drive down the cost of launch for the $200 billion satellite market, but the first company to get there will open up space for a host of new customers as well. SpaceX still has a ways to go before its reusable first stage technology is anywhere near mature, but it’s the only company actually experimenting with anything of the sort.

最後這一點尤其重要，因爲它將再次影響該公司競爭的跟進能力。New Space Global公司的戴維表示，每次火箭發射中推進劑的成本佔十分之三。其他成本主要來自拋掉剩餘硬件。其中又有四分之三和一級火箭有關。對總價值高達2000億美元的衛星發射市場來說，解決重複使用的問題不僅能大幅降低發射成本，第一個能實現這一點的公司還將帶來大量新客戶。Space X的可重複使用一級火箭技術還有待成熟完善，但它確實是唯一一家開展這類試驗的公司。

SpaceX’s true value has less to do with how much money it has raised and more more to do both with its ability to reliably scale as its competitors retrench, regroup, and learn to compete. The commercial space launch industry is in the midst of an adapt-or-die moment. For now, SpaceX is driving it.

在競爭對手紛紛縮減開支、重組並學會競爭之際，Space X的真正價值與其能募得多少資金關係不大，而是更多地與該公司能否可靠地擴大生產規模有關。商業航空發射業正處於“適者生存、優勝劣汰”的關鍵歷史關頭。就目前而言，是Space X正在推動整個行業的發展。

“If everyone is worried about the cost of the Falcon 9, they also should be looking down the road because SpaceX is already doing what all good tech companies do: disrupting its own technology,” David says. “Looking at the Falcon 9 today and attempting to compete with it while ignoring the future is like being a competitor to Apple many years ago when they first introduced the iPod and neglecting to consider the possibility of the iPhone and the iPad.”

戴維表示：“如果大家擔心鷹隼9號火箭的成本太高，他們也應該放眼展望未來，因爲Space X公司正在開始做所有卓越科技公司都會做的事情：顛覆自己的技術。現在只是關注鷹隼9號並想和它一決雌雄，同時無視未來大勢，就好比多年前當蘋果公司（Apple）首次推出iPod時，競爭對手一心想擊敗這款產品，卻不考慮蘋果將來可能推出iPhone和iPad一樣。”