上市前夕 阿里巴巴的股票到底該不該買

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Tuesday disclosed long-awaited plans for what could be the world's largest initial public offering. Now investors must decide whether to buy the stock.

阿里巴巴集團(Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.)週二披露了外界期待已久的首次公開募股(IPO)計劃，這有望成爲全球最大規模的IPO。眼下投資者必須作出決定，是否購買這隻股票。

It will be costly. Analysts say Alibaba could be valued at $150 billion to $250 billion. The smaller number would make it as valuable as Facebook Inc. The bigger number would put it on par with Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

購買阿里巴巴的股票將代價不菲。分析師們表示，阿里巴巴的估值可能在1,500億-2,500億美元之間。如果是1,500億美元，將與Facebook Inc.的市值相當。如果是2,500億美元，將與沃爾瑪連鎖公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)市值持平。

That may still be a good deal, given Alibaba's size, profitability and growth prospects. The company is by far the world's largest online marketplace, with 231 million active buyers annually. In 2013, roughly $248 billion of merchandise moved through its sites. That's one-third more than the combined transaction volume on Inc. and eBay Inc., according to Forrester Research.

但是考慮到阿里巴巴的規模、盈利能力和增長前景，這或許仍是一筆不錯的投資。阿里巴巴目前是全球最大的網上市場，每年的活躍用戶達到2.31億。2013年該公司旗下購物網站的商品交易額大約爲2,480億美元。據Forrester Research，這比亞馬遜公司( Inc.)和eBay Inc.去年的交易總額還高出了三分之一。

Put simply, investing in Alibaba is a bet on China, and its continued rapid growth. Alibaba dominates Chinese e-commerce, with about 80% of the market last year, according to CLSA Research. Its largest site, Taobao, is a free-for-all bazaar featuring hundreds of millions of goods from eight million merchants. Tmall is a higher-end site with products from the likes of Apple Inc., Nike Inc. and Gap Inc.

簡而言之，投資阿里巴巴就是在押注中國以及中國持續快速的經濟增長。據CLSA Research，阿里巴巴是中國電子商務市場中的龍頭老大，去年的市場佔有率大約80%。該公司旗下最大的購物網站淘寶網(Taobao)是一個大市場，任何人都可以在上面開店，該網站有800萬家商戶，商品數量高達數億件。該公司旗下的天貓(Tmall)則是一個高端購物網站，提供蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)、耐克(Nike Inc.)和Gap Inc.等知名公司的商品。

Alibaba generates revenue from sales commissions and advertising by merchants looking to stand out on its marketplaces. Last year, revenue climbed 62%, to $8 billion. That's roughly as much revenue as Facebook, but Alibaba is growing faster; Facebook grew 55% last year.

阿里巴巴的收入來源是向商戶收取佣金和宣傳廣告費。去年該公司營收增長62%，至80億美元。這一規模與Facebook基本相當，不過阿里巴巴的增長速度更快。Facebook去年營收增長55%。

But expenses are relatively small, since Alibaba, like eBay, only provides a marketplace for others and doesn't stock inventory itself. As a result, for every $1 of revenue, Alibaba retains 50 cents as operating profit. That's more than the 37% operating margin at Facebook, and nearly twice the 28% at Google, both considered extraordinarily high for a big U.S. company.

阿里巴巴支出規模相對較小，因爲與eBay一樣，阿里巴巴只提供市場平臺，自身不建立庫存。因此，每獲得一美元營收，其中50美分可以成爲阿里巴巴的營運利潤。相比之下，Facebook和谷歌(Google)的營運利潤率分別爲37%和28%，對大型美國企業而言，兩者的營運利潤率已經算相當高的水平。

Moreover, operating-profit margin has been growing, more than doubling from 20% in 2011. The higher profits for each additional dollar of revenue show how Alibaba is reaping the benefits of its dominant position in Chinese online shopping.

而且，阿里巴巴的營運利潤率還在一直上升，相比於2011年的20%已提高超過一倍。這種每多增加1美元收入所獲得的利潤較高的情況顯示出，阿里巴巴正得益於其在中國網絡購物領域的主導地位。

And Alibaba appears to have extraordinary growth prospects, which for many investors will justify paying more for $1 of today's profits. China's economy is growing three times as fast as the U.S.'s. A smaller percentage of Chinese are online, 46% compared with the U.S.'s 82%. And the Chinese have fewer retail options, pushing many to shop online.

此外，阿里巴巴似乎還擁有非凡的增長潛力，這爲投資者買入該股提供了依據。中國經濟增速是美國的三倍。中國上網人口比例還只有46%，而美國爲82%。中國人的零售選擇也較少，這促使許多人網上購物。

The excitement--and the potential--make it likely investors will have to pay up. Bernstein & Co. analyst Carlos Kirjner says the company is worth up to $250 billion. That's about 70 times last year's profit; Google trades at about 30 times last year's profit.

阿里巴巴良好的業績以及潛力意味着投資者可能將不得不花更多錢才能買到該股。Bernstein & Co.分析師柯基納(Carlos Kirjner)表示，阿里巴巴的估值可能高達2,500億美元。這大致相當於該公司去年利潤的70倍。谷歌當前的市值爲去年利潤的30倍左右。

Investors who tend to care more about future profits might consider this math: Even if Alibaba's revenue grows 45% annually through 2015 and its net profit margin expands by one-fifth, Mr. Kirjner's estimated valuation would be nearly 30 times 2015 profits. By comparison, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is trading at about 14 times 2015 earnings.

更關注未來利潤的投資者可能要做一下算術：即使一直到2015年阿里巴巴的收入都保持45%的年增長率， 利潤率提升五分之一，柯基納的估值也接近2015年利潤的30倍。相比之下，標準普爾500指數成份股估值與2015年預期收益之比約爲14倍。

Many U.S. investors will wind up owning a piece of Alibaba without investing directly, through mutual funds that are likely to buy into the Chinese company. Shareholders of Yahoo Inc. already own Alibaba, because Yahoo owns 24% of the Chinese company, though that investment is set to be reduced at the IPO.

很多美國投資者將持有阿里巴巴股份，並不是通過直接投資，而是通過可能參股阿里巴巴的共同基金。雅虎公司(Yahoo! Inc.)的股東已然持有阿里巴巴股份，因爲雅虎公司持有阿里巴巴24%的股份，不過它將在阿里巴巴IPO之際降低持股比例。

There are warning signs, too. Alibaba's momentum could slow as determined rivals clip at its heels. Consumer-electronics specialist Inc., China's second-largest player in online shopping, has won fans among some middle-class Chinese because it offers delivery, as Amazon does in the U.S. Alibaba is far more profitable than because it doesn't stock inventory itself and works with outside delivery services. But could pressure the company to invest more in improving customer service.

目前也存在一些預警信號。由於意志堅決的競爭對手緊追不捨，阿里巴巴的發展動能可能減弱。中國第二大電子商務公司、主營消費電子產品的京東( Inc.)受到一些中國中產階級的青睞，因其配送迅速，就像美國市場的亞馬遜。阿里巴巴的盈利能力遠遠好於京東，因爲它自身沒有庫存，而且與外部配送服務合作。但如果京東進一步投資改善消費者服務，就可能令阿里巴巴承壓。

A bigger competitive threat is Chinese social-networking giant Tencent Holdings Ltd., owner of the popular WeChat messaging service. Tencent is expanding its e-commerce business through WeChat and the popular online-payments platform Tenpay, which competes with Alibaba's affiliated Paypal-like service, Alipay.

另一個更大的威脅來自中國社交網絡巨頭騰訊控股有限公司(Tencent Holdings Ltd., 簡稱：騰訊控股)，它是十分流行的微信(WeChat)通信工具的所有者。騰訊控股正在通過微信和網上支付平臺財付通(Tenpay)擴張電子商務業務，財付通與阿里巴巴的支付寶(Alipay)相互競爭。

The combination makes Tencent a particular threat on smartphones. A January survey of merchants by RedTech Advisors showed that nearly one-third of Alibaba merchants have opened up a store on WeChat, which is offering commission-free transactions to win them over. In March, Tencent agreed to buy a 15% stake in . Alibaba's Taobao app is very popular on smartphones, but its own messaging app trails far behind WeChat.

這一組合令騰訊成爲智能手機的一大威脅。研究諮詢機構上海睿析科技(RedTech Advisors)今年1月份對商戶進行的一次調查顯示，阿里巴巴將近三分之一的商戶已經在微信開店，微信正在提供免佣金交易，想用這種方式把商戶拉過來。今年3月份，騰訊同意收購京東15%的股權。阿里巴巴的淘寶應用程序在智能手機上非常流行，但阿里巴巴的即時通訊應用則大大落後於微信。

RedTech's survey also suggested merchants are grumbling about the high price of Alibaba advertising. That could hamper Alibaba's ability to raise advertising fees and profit margins.

RedTech的調查還表明，阿里巴巴廣告收費太高讓商戶們抱怨不已。這有可能打擊阿里巴巴提高廣告費用及利潤率的能力。

Another concern is Alibaba's corporate governance. Alibaba chose to list in New York in part because Hong Kong regulations would have made it hard to keep its partnership structure, under which founder Jack Ma and some other senior executives can nominate more than half of the board directors, even though the partners' combined stake in the company is only about 10%.

另一個問題是阿里巴巴的公司治理。阿里巴巴選擇在紐約上市，原因之一是香港的監管規則是其保留合夥人結構的一大障礙。在這種結構下，阿里巴巴的創始人馬雲和一些高管可以提名半數以上的董事會成員，儘管這些合夥人的股權加在一起只佔總股權的10%左右。

In 2011, Alibaba transferred ownership of Alipay to an outside company under Mr. Ma's control. The move jolted shares of Yahoo, which owns a 24% stake in Alibaba and claimed it didn't know of the move. The companies resolved their difference with an agreement that limits Yahoo's gains on increases in Alipay's value. People familiar with the matter say a new direct ownership agreement is under discussion between Alibaba and Alipay.

2011年，阿里巴巴把支付寶的所有權轉移到了馬雲控制的一個外部公司。這一舉動打擊了雅虎的股價，雅虎聲稱不知道這一舉動。雅虎擁有阿里巴巴24%的股權。最終，阿里巴巴和雅虎通過簽署協議限制雅虎享受支付寶增值利益的方式解決了分歧。知情人士說，阿里巴巴和支付寶正在進行磋商，想讓阿里巴巴重新直接擁有支付寶。

Meanwhile, the driving force behind all of this, China's economic miracle, faces its own doubts as critics say growth has been sustained by an investment bubble that could burst.

與此同時，人們對這一切背後的推動力量──中國的經濟奇蹟也存有疑慮，有批評人士說，一直以來增長都是靠投資泡沫來維持的，而這個泡沫可能會破裂。