中國改革商業銀行任重道遠

Less than 20 years ago, China's financial system was rotting and crippled by bad debt.

在不到20年前，中國金融系統缺乏活力，並飽受呆壞賬的困擾。

After waves of reforms, the country's banks have been transformed into some of the world's largest and most-profitable corporations. Big problems remain, however. Among other issues, the banks take their cues more from politicians than from customers, and they focus their lending more on hidebound state-owned borrowers than the private companies that have turned the Chinese economy into an economic powerhouse.

在經過幾輪改革之後，中國的商業銀行已經脫胎換骨，躋身全球規模最大、最賺錢銀行之列。不過中國金融系統仍然存在很大的問題。其中一個問題是，這些銀行更多地聽從政府的命令，而不是迎合客戶，他們主要向墨守成規的國有企業發放貸款，而不是面向民營企業，但正是民營企業的發展壯大使得中國成爲經濟強國。

But now, the financial system is on the verge of another big change: forcing the banks to compete for customers by offering the best deals for depositors.

但是眼下，金融系統正在醞釀新一輪重大變革：促使商業銀行通過向儲戶提供更高的利息來爭奪客戶。

'As with other financial-market reforms, deposits-rate liberalization is a welcome move, with long-term benefits, but poses some short-term risks, given all the other distortions that plague the financial system,' said Cornell University China specialist Eswar Prasad.

康奈爾大學(Cornell University)中國問題專家普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)說，和其他金融市場改革措施一樣，存款利率市場化是一個受歡迎的舉措，這將帶來長期益處，但是也會構成一些短期風險，因爲還有其他一些事情沒有理順，從而困擾着金融系統。

Beginning in the 1990s, China spent hundreds of billions of dollars cleaning up the banks' balance sheets, a move that eventually led to the initial public offerings of the country's top four lenders, including Bank of China Ltd. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. The Chinese government, though, remains the biggest shareholder in the vast majority of the c ountry's banks, including Bank of China and ICBC.

從上世紀90年代開始，中國斥資數千億美元清理銀行壞賬，此舉最終推動中國四大國有銀行上市，包括中國銀行(Bank of China Ltd.)和工商銀行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)。不過中國政府仍然是最大股東，持有中國銀行和工商銀行等國有商業銀行的絕大多數股權。

Now, the state-dominated banking system is moving steadily to adopt market principles while permitting the creation of privately funded banks as competitors. Last summer, Beijing scrapped controls over lending rates so that banks can price loans themselves. Following that, it began to permit banks to issue certain kinds of certificates of deposit aimed at big institutional investors, a move analysts say could pave the way for the launch of CDs aimed at ordinary Chinese savers.

目前以國有資本爲主的銀行體系正穩步採用自由市場經濟原則，同時，政府還允許成立民營銀行，作爲市場競爭者存在。去年夏天，政府取消了對貸款利率的限制，銀行可爲自己的貸款定價。之後政府開始允許銀行發行面向大型機構投資者的某些定存單，分析師們稱，此舉應爲今後面向普通儲戶的定存單發行鋪平道路。

As it gradually relaxed its control over interest rates, Beijing also moved toward a more market-based exchange-rate system, albeit at a much slower pace. Beginning in 2003, China gave foreign investors some limited ability to buy Chinese stocks in a plan that was expanded nine years later. In 2012, Beijing also freed the yuan to trade more freely against the dollar, although the government keeps a close hand on how much the currency can move day to day. In addition, it has promoted the use of the yuan in cross-border trading in the past five years.

隨着政府逐步放鬆對利率的管控，中國也向更加市場化的匯率機制過渡，但步伐更慢一些。從2003年開始，中國爲海外投資者買進中國股票開闢了一些有限的渠道，九年後外資投資於中國股市的計劃被擴大。2012年，中國還擴大了人民幣兌美元的自由波動範圍，但政府仍嚴格控制日間的波動範圍。此外，過去五年，中國還鼓勵人民幣在跨境交易中的使用。

Full liberalization of the currency, though, remains years away. Chinese officials say they worry that liberalizing cross-border fund flows too fast could lead to cash quickly leaving the country in the event of a crisis, potentially destabilizing China's financial system.

但人民幣的完全市場化還有很長的路要走。中國官員們表示，他們擔心過快放開跨境資金流動，在遭遇危機時，可能會導致資金快速撤出中國，有可能破壞中國金融系統的穩定。

Zhou Xiaochuan, the country's central banker, acknowledged that full liberalization of the yuan, also known as renminbi, remains a more-distant goal. 'We have a lot of homework to do before renminbi becomes an international currency,' he said at a press conference Tuesday. Part of that homework, he said, is to make the yuan a free-floating currency.

中國央行行長周小川承認，人民幣完全國際化是一個相對漫長的過程。他在週二的記者會上表示，人民幣走向國際化，還有很多“家庭作業”沒有做好。他說，一部分“家庭作業”是讓人民幣成爲自由浮動的貨幣。

And overhanging all the change is a deeper issue: Will liberalization of interest rates and capital flows accelerate credit growth? China's debt level already is expanding at a rate comparable to those in the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea before credit bubbles in those countries popped, throwing their economies into deep recessions.

所有這些改革都取決於一個更深層次的問題：利率市場化和放開資本管制是否將加快信貸增長？中國的債務增速已相當於歐美、日本和韓國信用泡沫形成前的水平，而信用泡沫令上述國家的經濟陷入嚴重衰退。

Mr. Prasad, the Cornell economist, says new liberalization requires more-effective financial regulation, a tall order in a country where regulatory agencies often see one another as competitors, not colleagues. 'The question remains whether the regulatory framework is capable of managing the transition to a more open and market-determined financial system,' Mr. Prasad said.

康奈爾大學的經濟學家普拉薩德說，進一步市場化需要更有效的金融監管來保障，一個國家中，如果監管機構之間相互將對方視爲對手而不是同僚的話，這將是一項難以完成的任務。普拉薩德說，關鍵問題仍在於，監管架構是否有能力控制金融系統向更開放和市場化的機制轉型。