日本年末增長乏力 安倍三箭效果存疑

Japan's economy was surprisingly weak in the final three months of 2013, a disappointment for the government in its ambitious economic growth strategy and the latest cautionary sign among major industrial economies.

2013年第四季度日本經濟出人意料地疲弱，這令日本政府對其雄心勃勃的經濟增長策略失望，同時也是主要發達經濟體中最新的警示信號。

The country's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, expanded at an annualized pace of 1% in the October to December period. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted a 2.8% rise.

日本國內生產總值(GDP)在去年10月至12月份的年化增幅爲1%。GDP是衡量經濟中產出的商品和服務的最廣泛指標。接受《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)調查的經濟學家預計增幅爲2.8%。

The figures will likely strengthen concern among economists already worried about how Japan's domestic-driven recovery will fare once the nation's sales tax is raised to 8% from 5% in April. Economists expect at least a temporary chill in demand when the new rate goes into effect.

一些經濟學家原本就擔心今年4月消費稅從5%上調至8%之後，日本由內需驅動的經濟復甦情況將會如何。上述數字可能會加劇這些人的擔憂。經濟學家們預計，一旦新的消費稅率生效，需求至少會暫時降溫。

Though consumers and firms spent less in the quarter than forecast, economists said the number was weighed down mostly by weak demand for Japanese goods abroad.

雖然消費者和企業在去年第四季度的開支都低於此前預期，但經濟學家們說，壓低GDP數據的最主要因素是海外對日本商品的需求疲弱。

That puts Japan's growth for the fourth quarter of 2013 below the 1.1% annualized expansion recorded in the euro bloc, and well below the 3.2% rise recorded in the U.S.

這樣一來，日本2013年第四季度的經濟增幅就低於歐元區1.1%的年化增幅，也遠遠不及美國3.2%的增幅。

The anemic growth figure represents a further slowing of the economy after a sharp deceleration in the July-September quarter, when Japan's economy expanded 1.1%.

這一疲弱的經濟增長數據表明，日本經濟在去年第三季度急劇減速之後進一步放緩。去年第三季度日本經濟增速爲1.1%。

The data is likely to raise doubts about whether Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to turn around two decades of lackluster growth has really revived consumer confidence enough to sustain a recovery. It also raises concerns about demand for Japanese goods abroad despite a weakening of the yen against other major currencies since Mr. Abe took power at the end of 2012.

這一數據可能會引發對日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)所推措施的疑慮，令人質疑這些旨在扭轉20年經濟低迷的措施是否真的將該消費者信心提高到了足以維持經濟復甦的程度。這也會引發對日本商品海外需求的擔憂，儘管自2012年底安倍晉三出任首相以來日圓兌其他主要貨幣走弱。

The stock market took the latest figures in stride on Monday with the Nikkei Stock Average down 0.5% at 14246.05. The market was reacting in part to a sharp downturn in the value of the dollar against the yen following the GDP news.

日本股市週一未受最新GDP數據影響，日經指數下跌0.5%，至14246.05點。市場在一定程度上是對GDP數據發佈後美元兌日圓急劇下跌做出反應。

The data could also strengthen speculation for additional monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan. The central bank has forecast firm exports and business investment will propel the economy in 2014 despite the sales tax increase.

上述數據可能還會讓人們進一步猜測日本央行(Bank of Japan)將推出額外的貨幣刺激政策。日本央行此前預測，儘管消費稅即將上調，但企業出口和商業投資將對2014年經濟增長起到推動作用。

Economist Takeshi Minami at the Norinchukin Research Institute noted that part of the weakness came in the form of higher imports, which are calculated as a negative factor in the overall GDP.

農林中金綜合研究所(Norinchukin Research Institute)的Takeshi Minami指出，GDP數據疲弱在一定程度上是以進口增加的形式呈現的，進口增加在計算整體GDP數據時被認爲是不利因素。

'This confirms that we rely on goods made overseas for products that Japanese consumers buy,' adding that 'despite the weak yen, Japanese manufacturers are not coming back.'

他說，這證實了日本消費者購買的產品依賴於海外生產。他補充說，儘管日圓走弱，但日本製造商並未扭轉頹勢。

Japan's recovery in 2013 was led by firm spending by consumers, but consumer demand in the fourth quarter was also less than economists expected. Household spending only rose 0.5% on quarter compared with an expected 0.7% rise.

儘管日本2013年經濟復甦是由強勁的消費支出推動，但第四季度消費需求也不及經濟學家預期。家庭開支環比上季度僅增加0.5%，此前預期增幅爲0.7%。

'What's worrisome is consumption. Even though some front-loaded demand ahead of the sales tax increases has started helping it, that hasn't increased much.' Masamichi Adachi, senior economist JPMorgan Securities.

JPMorgan Securities資深經濟學家Masamichi Adachi說，令人擔憂的是消費；雖然消費稅上調之前搶先消費的需求已經開始回暖，但消費並未增加太多。

That does not appear to be a surprise to at least some consumers.

對於至少一部分消費者來說，這似乎並不出乎意料。

At an exclusive Tokyo department store over the weekend, some shoppers voiced caution over the long-term outlook.

上週末在東京一家高檔百貨商場裏，一些消費者對日本經濟的長期前景表達了謹慎看法。

One of them, 49-year-old Junko Takahashi, said she had just bought a jacket to get that purchase done before the sales-tax rise. But she was holding off on further spending.

其中，49歲的Junko Takahashi稱，自己剛買了一件外套，目的就是趕在銷售稅上調之前買下單，但對於進一步的消費她要暫時收斂一下了。

'Summer and winter bonuses were up--a bit--for the first time in five years, but I'm not spending because I am concerned they may go down again, she said.

她表示，去年夏季和冬季的獎金多發了一點，這是五年來第一次，但她不會大筆消費，因爲擔心獎金可能會再變少。

Some companies, including Toyota Motor Corp., have already said they will cut production in April. Aware of an economic downturn in Japan linked in part at least to a previous sales tax increment in 1997, the Abe administration has already compiled a Yen5.5 trillion stimulus package to try and cushion the blow of the latest jump in the rate.

包括豐田汽車(Toyota Motor Corp.)在內的一些公司已經表示，將在4月份減產。由於知道日本以往有一次經濟下行至少在一定程度上與1997年上一次銷售稅上調有關，所以安倍晉三政府已制定了一項5.5萬億日圓的刺激計劃，試圖緩衝這次銷售稅上調將帶來的衝擊。

Some economists remain relatively optimistic, though.

不過，一些經濟學家仍比較樂觀。

Mitsubishi Research Institute chief economist Yoko Takeda said that despite the sales tax increase, a rise in wages and business investment will lift Japan's economy in 2014.

三菱綜合研究所(Mitsubishi Research Institute)首席經濟學家Yoko Takeda稱，儘管銷售稅上調，但工資上漲和商業投資將提振2014年的日本經濟。

'Recent company profits have been very good, and I think they're going to put some of that toward higher wages and more investment,' she said.

Takeda表示，近來企業的盈利狀況非常不錯，她認爲企業會將會把部分利潤用來加薪和進行更多投資。

She added that even if personal consumption falls immediately following the sales tax increase, a rise in bonuses later in the year will likely help revive households' appetites for spending.

她還稱，即使緊接着銷售稅上調的一段時間內個人消費出現下降，但今年晚些時候企業獎金的增加可能會有助於恢復家庭的開支意願。