年美國表現最好的十大科技股 你投資了嗎
Idaho, China, Menlo Park. That would have been your itinerary this year to find the tech stocks that make up the list of the best-performing names of 2013. These are stocks that have doubled or even tripled their investors’ money and, while some have likely exhausted the easy gains, others are expected by Wall Street analysts to continue soaring. And can you believe good old Yahoo! came in at number 10? It’s not growing that much but investors have realized the rising value of its approximately 24% stake in the Chinese e-commerce firm that is heading toward a huge IPO in 2014.
如果你想尋找2013年在股市上表現最理想的科技股，那麼愛達荷州、中國、加州門洛帕克市應該都是值得考察的地方。來自這些地方的科技公司，爲他們的投資者創造了雙倍乃至於三倍的回報。雖然其中一些公司的股價已經達到了相當高度，輕鬆攻城略地的能力已所剩無幾，但按照華爾街分析師的判斷，其他一些仍然有望高歌猛進。你能相信嗎？堪稱科技界“活化石”的雅虎（Yahoo!）竟然能排在第十位。這並不是由於該公司的業績增長有多麼迅猛，而是因爲雅虎手裏握着某中國電商巨頭24%的股份，這家公司預計在2014年將進行一場規模浩大的首次公開募股（IPO）。Forbes stats editor Scott DeCarlo and I screened close to 400 publicly traded technology stocks, cutting off the list for this ranking’s purposes at stocks that ended the year with a market cap under $5 billion. That excluded a bunch of well-known names that did extremely well in 2013 including Yelp (up 261%), Shutterstock (up 223% post-IPO), and WebMD (up 168%), as well as much of the solar sector, which had a terrific comeback this year with SunEdison up 298%.
福布斯數據統計編輯斯科特·迪卡羅（Scott DeCarlo）和我篩查了將近400家美國上市科技公司，然後將市值在年內達不到50億美元的公司剔除。因此，一大批在2013年漲勢如虹的知名公司，例如漲幅達261%的Yelp、上市後股價漲幅達223%的Shutterstock，還有漲幅達168%的WebMD，以及許多太陽能公司，都沒能入圍。今年太陽能板塊打了一場很漂亮的翻身仗，其中SunEdison的股價大漲298%。But cutting off at $5 billion also excludes a lot of small-cap fliers and tiny Chinese ADRs. Nothing against Chinese ADRs except that they are, well, Chinese ADRs. We than re-ranked the big-cap list by total return through December 20. That’s the not the end of the year, I know, but stocks tend to meander in late December so I doubt the picture will look different by New Year’s Day. If it does, sue me. I’ll have another post to write.
但是50億美元的市值門檻也把許多漲幅巨大的小盤股以及以存託憑證（ADR）形式在美國掛牌的微市值中概股擋在了門外。我們並沒有針對中概股ADR添加額外的標準，唯一的決定因素就是它們本身。接下來，我們按照截至12月20日的股價表現，對經過篩選後剩下的大盤科技股進行排名。雖然嚴格來說這還不算年底，但股市在12月最後幾天一般都風平浪靜，所以我不認爲元旦前這幾天會發生能夠顛覆整個局面的行情。如果真出現了這種事的話，儘可以找我。我會重新寫一篇稿子。
The Nasdaq composite index, the annual performance bogey for most tech stocks, delivered a 36% return this year. Seventy out of the 105 stocks over $5 billion in market cap beat the Nasdaq, but you’d have done better in absolute terms (but not in percentage terms) throwing darts at the smaller-cap names, where 165 stocks beat the Nasdaq out of 261 that we tracked.
作爲衡量大多數科技股走勢強弱的標杆，納斯達克綜合指數今年的回報率爲36%。在105家市值高於50億美元的科技股中，有70家跑贏了納指。但如果從絕對數字看（而不是百分比），投資者應該押注小盤科技股，在我們跟蹤的261家這類股票中，有165家跑贏了納指。The best-performing large-cap tech stock of the year? Micron Technology, the Boise, Idaho maker of random access memory and microprocessors. Forbes contributor and stockpicker David Steinberg liked Micron at the beginning of the year and reiterated that call in September, saying that consolidation has finally brought a modicum of pricing power to the memory chip industry, and Micron is one of the few survivors. Demand is on the upswing and Micron has also put behind it the drag of an ongoing patent lawsuit with Rambus.
今年表現最優的大盤科技股到底是哪隻？那就是愛達荷州博伊西的內存和微處理器製造商美光科技（Micron Technology）。福布斯撰稿人和選股人大衛·斯坦伯格（David Steinberg）在今年初就推薦過美光科技，並且在9月份再次推薦該股，其理由是內存芯片行業經過一番整合後，終於取回了一點點定價權，而美光科技正是這場整合中的少數倖存者。此外，內存芯片的需求正在回升，而該公司也已擺脫與蘭巴斯（Rambus）之間的專利訴訟的負面影響。Here’s the top 10 and giant spreadsheet you can download with close to 400 tech stocks (above and below $5 billion market cap) ranked by 2013 performance:
以下便是今年股票表現最優的十隻科技大盤股：Micron Technology, up 250%
美光科技（Micron Technology），漲幅250%SouFun Holdings , up 218%
搜房（SouFun Holdings），漲幅218%Pandora Media, up 205%
潘多拉媒體（Pandora Media），漲幅205%Qihoo 360 Technology, up 165%
奇虎360（Micron Technology），漲幅165%3D Systems, up 119%
3D系統公司（3D Systems），漲幅119%Splunk, up 139%
斯普倫克（Splunk），漲幅139%T-Mobile, up 137%
T-Mobile，漲幅137%Facebook, up 107%
Facebook，漲幅107%CoStar Group, up 105%
CoStar Group，漲幅105%Yahoo!, up 101%
雅虎（Yahoo!），漲幅101%At number two is SouFun, China’s biggest real estate Web portal. It makes money from property listing fees, ads and operating home improvement websites. The company has coverage in more than 320 cities in China with a big, active community of home buyers and sellers, as well as investors and property developers. Revenue in the most recent quarter was up 45% and operating earnings per share was up 66%. The stockpickers at Zacks likes next year’s growth prospects, recently raised to 35% growth from this year.
排名第二的搜房是中國最大的房地產門戶網站，其收入來自房地產掛牌費、廣告以及旗下運營的幾家家居裝飾網站。搜房網目前已經覆蓋中國超過320個城市，其網絡社羣包括購房者和賣房者、投資者和開發商在內，數量龐大且參與度高。該公司最近一個季度的營收增長45%，每股運營利潤增長66%。投資研究公司扎克斯（Zacks）的選股人看好搜房明年的前景，不久前將其明年業績增長預期上調到35%。At number three is Pandora, whose shares nearly tripled in 2013. Few might have guessed they would perform that well, given how tough it is to make money in digital music streaming. But investors woke up to Pandora’s mighty position with 70% share of Internet radio and 71 million monthly active users. Advertising, which accounts for 80% of revenue, will hit $643 million this year. Mobile ad sales topped $100 million for the first time in the third quarter of 2013, making Pandora third in mobile ad revenue behind only Google and Facebook. Musicians aren’t happy about it, but Pandora is renegotiating (likely downward) its royalty rates with artists, labels and music publishers sometime early next year.
排名第三的潘多拉今年股價上漲近兩倍，考慮到該公司靠數字流音樂業務掙錢的難度是如此之大，恐怕沒人能料到其股價走勢會如此強勁。但潘多拉在互聯網廣播領域佔有七成的市場份額，月活躍用戶高達7,100萬，這些強悍的數據讓投資者醒悟過來。今年，佔到潘多拉八成營收的廣告收入將達到6.43億美元。其中移動廣告銷售收入在第三季度首次突破1億美元大關，使得潘多拉成爲繼谷歌（Google）和Facebook之後第三家實現這一成就的公司。儘管音樂人大有怨言，但潘多拉仍在推進與藝人、唱片公司和音樂發行商重新商定版權費的工作（很可能會降低費率），並有望在明年年初的某個時候敲定。One of the big takeaways this year was the underperformance of most of the biggest names in tech. Apple came in dead last among the big-cap stocks, up a mere 5.7%. Also bringing up the rear were Cisco (up 10%), AT&T (up 7%), Verizon (16%), Oracle (10%) and Qualcomm (20%).
從今年這項評選中可以發現，規模最大的那幾家科技公司，大部分的表現都弱於大盤。倒數第一的是蘋果公司，全年漲幅只有5.7%。其他幾家排名靠後的公司還有漲幅爲10%的思科（Cisco）、漲7%的AT&T、漲16%的威瑞森（Verizon）、漲10%的甲骨文（Oracle）和上漲20%的高通（Qualcomm）。You might be wondering, “Where’s Netflix?”. Some consider it a tech stock, and it quadrupled in price in 2013, making it the best overall performer in the S&P 500, but in our industry categorization it falls under media stocks.
你可能會納悶，網飛（Netflix）呢？它排在哪？有些人會把網飛視爲科技股，而且今年其股價猛漲了三倍，成爲標普500指數成分股中表現最奪目的一隻股票。不過按照福布斯的行業分類，網飛是一家傳媒股票，不是科技股。
