你不知道iPhone5對美國經濟的重要性
Forget QE3. Maybe the way to stimulate the economy is to force Apple to release more new iPhone models.
別管什麼第三輪量化寬鬆(QE3)了。或許刺激經濟的辦法就是強迫蘋果公司(Apple)發佈更多新款iPhone。
O.K., that's not exactly right. But Michael Feroli, the chief United States economist at JPMorgan Chase, did a back-of-the-envelope calculation and estimated that the upcoming release of what is expected to be the iPhone 5 could add one-quarter to one-half of a percentage point to the annualized growth rate of America's gross domestic product next quarter.
好吧，這也不完全正確。但摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase)的首席美國經濟學家邁克爾·費羅利(Michael Feroli)做了一個粗略計算，他估計即將上市的iPhone 5會在下一季度爲美國國內生產總值(GDP)的年化增長率帶來0.25到0.5個百分點的提振。
From the note he sent to clients today:
他今天發送給客戶的報告中這樣寫道：
Our equity analysts believe around 8 million iPhone 5's will be sold in the US in Q4, even while sales of previous generation iPhones are maintained at a solid pace. While we have no idea how much these will retail for, if it is similar to previous launches it would be around $600. Likewise, if the imported cost component is similar to previous leading generation phones it would imply around a $200 per phone addition to imports (which is a subtraction from GDP). The difference between these two figures, $400, would represent the trade margins, which figure into GDP. Thus, calculated using the so-called retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost Q4 GDP by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate. This would boost annualized GDP growth in Q4 by 0.33%-point. If hedonically adjusted constant quality prices of phones declined due to newer or better features -- a reasonable conjecture -- then the lift would be even greater, though past iPhone releases don't bear a visible impact on the relevant CPI components. The third of a percentage point lift would limit the downside risk to our Q4 GDP growth projection, which remains 2.0%.
我們的股票分析師認爲，即使前幾代iPhone的銷售量維持在穩定水平，iPhone5在美國的第四季度銷量會達到800萬部左右。儘管我們不知道iPhone5的零售價格是多少，但如果和前幾代的價格相近，iPhone5的售價會在600美元左右。同樣地，如果進口部件成本和前幾代的領先型號相似，這就意味着爲每個手機支付大約200美元的進口費用（這部分要從GDP中扣除）。這兩個數字之間的差值400美元就代表着貿易利潤，可以被算入GDP。因此，用所謂的零售控制法進行計算，iPhone5的銷售可以爲第四季度的GDP增長貢獻32億美元，按照年率計算則爲128億美元。這將會使第四季度的年化GDP增長率提高0.33個百分點。由於新型號將擁有更新更好的功能，按質量不變計算的價格將低於目前價格，如果樂觀地把這一因素計算在內——這是合理的設想——那麼對GDP的提振作用將會更大，儘管前幾代iPhone的發佈對相關消費價格指數(CPI)的構成沒有明顯影響。0.33個百分點的提振會限制第四季度GDP增長預期的下行風險。我們仍然預計第四季度GDP增長率爲2.0%。
This estimate seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically. However, we think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection. The last iPhone launch was at a similar time last year. In October of last year, when the iPhone 4S first became widely available, overall retail sales that month significantly outperformed expectations. Essentially all iPhone sales occur either on-line or in retail stores. Over half of the 0.8% increase in core retail sales last October occurred in wo categories: on-line sales and computer and software sales, which combined had their largest monthly increase on record. The incremental growth of Q4 sales at those stores over Q3, if due to the iPhone, would have added between 0.1% to 0.2%-point to Q4 growth, after subtracting the import drag. Given the iPhone 5 launch is expected to be much larger, we think the estimate mentioned in the first paragraph is reasonable.
這樣的估算看起來相當可觀，因此應該被報以懷疑的眼光。但是，我們認爲最近的實情和本預期保持一致。上一代iPhone的發佈差不多是在去年同一時間。去年10月，iPhone 4S開始大規模上市，當月的零售總額大大超過了預期。基本上所有的iPhone不是通過網上商店出手就是在零售店出售。去年10月的美國核心零售額增長了0.8%，其中一半以上發生在兩個領域：網上銷售、電腦及軟件銷售。兩者相加實現了有史以來最大的月增長。如果這些商店裏的第四季度環比銷售額增長是iPhone 4S帶來的，則給第四季度的增長率帶來了0.1到 0.2個百分點的提振（扣除進口費用之後）。考慮到今年iPhone5的發佈規模有望大大提升，我們認爲本報告第一段中提及的估算是合理的。
