负利率时代银行各出囤钱奇招
The idea of keeping piles of cash in high security vaults may sound like something from an old movie plot, but some banks and insurers have recently started considering the idea as interest rates sink below zero across much of Europe.
把一堆堆现金放在防范严密的金库里，这听起来像老电影里才有的情节，但随着欧洲大部分国家利率降为负值，一些银行和保险公司最近已开始考虑起这个主意。
Europe’s highways are not yet jammed with heavily guarded trucks transporting money to top-secret locations, but if it becomes financially sensible for banks to hoard cash as rates are cut even further, the practice could undermine central banks’ ability to use negative rates to boost growth.
欧洲的高速路上还没挤满戒备森严、把钱运往绝密地点的运钞车，但随着利率进一步削减，如果囤积现金变成对银行来说在财务上明智的选择，这种做法可能会削弱央行利用负利率促进增长的能力。
After the European Central Bank’s most recent rate cut in March, private-sector banks are paying what amounts to an annual levy of 0.4 per cent on most of the funds they keep at the eurozone’s 19 national central banks. This policy, which has cost banks around Euro2.64bn since ECB rates became negative in 2014, is intended to spark economic growth by giving banks the incentive to lend money out to businesses instead of holding on to it.
欧元区的私营银行绝大部分资金存放在19家国家央行，在欧洲央行(ECB) 3月份最近一次降息后，私营银行正为这些资金缴付相当于每年征税0.4%的费用。负利率政策旨在鼓励银行把钱贷给企业，而不是抓住钱不放，从而刺激经济增长。自2014年欧洲央行进入负利率时代，各家银行已支付了约26.4亿欧元。
European central bankers say they could cut rates again should economic conditions worsen, but private bankers and insurers are already thinking of creative ways to avoid those charges altogether.
欧洲央行官员表示，如果经济状况继续恶化，他们可能会再次降息，但私营银行和保险商已经想出了各种富于创造力的方法来从根本上规避这些费用。
One way is by turning the electronic money they keep at central banks into cold, hard cash. Munich Re has experimented successfully with storing a double-digit million sum of euros in cash at what the insurer describes as a manageable cost. A few other German banks, including Commerzbank, the country’s second-biggest lender, have also considered taking the step. But when a Swiss pension fund attempted to withdraw a large sum of money from its bank in order to store it in a vault, the bank refused to provide the cash, according to local media reports.
方法之一就是将它们存放在央行里的电子货币转换成看得见摸得着的现金。慕尼黑再保险(Munich Re)已成功储存几千万欧元现金，该保险公司称成本可控。还有几家德国银行——包括德国第二大银行德国商业银行(Commerzbank)——也考虑采取此步骤。但据当地媒体报道，当一支瑞士养老基金试图从银行提取一大笔钱以存入金库时，银行拒绝提供现金。
If this practice becomes widespread, it would have big economic implications. If banks are not paying central bank interest charges, then they will not be as affected by further official interest rate cuts. They therefore would not be spurred to lend out more money.
如果这种做法流行开来，将对经济造成很大影响。如果各银行不向央行缴付负利率费用，它们就不会受到官方利率进一步削减的严重影响。它们也就不会有加大放贷力度的动力。
Fortunately for central banks, the hoarding of cash creates a host of other costs.
对于央行来说幸运的是，囤积现金会造成一大堆其他成本。
Part of it is storage and transport, though they are not the biggest problems. A withdrawal of a large amount of cash in one swoop would keep transport costs low, while the high value of the largest denominations of euro and Swiss franc notes mean that large amounts can be stored in small volumes.
一部分是储存和运输成本，尽管这不是最大的问题。一次性提取大量现金可以降低运输成本，而欧元和瑞士法郎最大面额纸币的高价值意味着，较小的空间就能存储大笔现金。
Even when the ECB stops issuing the Euro500 note in 2018 and banks will have to use the smaller denomination Euro200 notes, there is enough space in vaults, according to private bankers.
据私营银行业人士表示，即使2018年欧洲央行停止发行500欧元面额纸币，各银行必须使用较小面额的200欧元纸币，金库还是会有足够的空间。
Bank robbers, earthquakes and other unforeseen disasters, on the other hand, are a problem. Or rather, the delicate issue of finding an insurer willing to take on those risks while charging a reasonable fee.
另一方面，像银行劫匪、地震这类不可预见的灾害是一个真正的问题。或者说这引出了一个微妙的问题，如何找到一家愿意以合理收费承担这些风险的保险公司？
“No one stores cash for large amounts of time. At the moment, cash comes in and then goes out quickly to ATMs,” said a German banker, who has looked into the costs of switching to bank notes. The banker estimated that the insurance cost would probably be between 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent of the value of the banknotes being stored. That would be higher than the ECB’s negative rate, but in line with Switzerland’s minus 0.75 per cent, which is one of the lowest in the world.
一位德国银行家在研究了转存现钞的成本后表示：“没人会储存现金很久。眼下，提出来的现金很快就被分配到各网点的自动取款机。”据这位银行家估计，保险费很可能达到所存纸币价值的0.5%到1%，这比欧洲央行的负利率还贵，但与瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)的-0.75%——全球最低利率之一——相仿。
There is also the issue of whether private-sector banks would be able to hoard cash on a large scale without the tacit approval of their national central banks. If a bank in the eurozone wanted to switch its reserves into banknotes, the first step would be to contact the national central bank at which its account is held.
还有一个问题是，私营银行能否在未经国家央行默许的情况下大规模囤积现金。如果欧元区的一家银行想把自己的储备金转换成纸币，第一步就是联系其开户的国家央行。
Each of the national central banks must agree to swap the electronic money for banknotes in the denominations chosen by the bank. If several banks decided to hoard cash, the amount of banknotes in circulation would jump. At the moment, there are euro notes worth Euro1.087tn in circulation. Banks have almost the same amount (Euro988.1bn) that they could demand from the central bank.
每家央行都必须同意将电子货币换成私营银行所选面额的纸币。如果有好几家银行决定囤积现金，纸币流通量就会猛增。目前有价值1.087万亿欧元的纸币在流通中，而私营银行可以要求从央行提取的金额（9881亿欧元）与此几乎相当。
The national central banks stockpile banknotes, and the ECB has measures in place to supply them on short notice if demand soars. A spokesperson for the ECB said: “Rest assured that the ECB and the eurosystem will continue to make all necessary arrangements to ensure a smooth functioning of cash as a means of payment and a store of value.”
各国央行都有纸币库存，欧洲央行也安排好措施，如果需求大增可以在短时间内提供纸币。欧洲央行一位发言人表示：“请放心，欧洲央行和欧元体系将继续做出一切必要安排，保证现金作为支付工具和保值手段的正常运转。”
The German banker said it is unlikely that cash hoarding would become a widespread practice. Rather, it is a good way of registering banks’ protest over the impact of negative rates. “It would be sensible for two or three banks . . . to make clear that there is a lower bound for interest rates,” he said. “I don’t think the Swiss National Bank will be able to cut rates again without insurers and banks trying to hoard cash.
上述德国银行家表示，囤积现金不太可能成为普遍做法，而是表明银行抗议负利率冲击的好办法。他说：“两三家银行这么做是合理的……以明确指出利率应有下限。我认为瑞士央行如果再次降息，保险商和银行将试图囤积现金。”
