多元化有助亞投行回擊懷疑論

Groucho Marx said he would refuse to join any club that would have him as a member. He did not however try to discourage his friends from signing up. That is what the US did when it came to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a China-led institution that Washington regarded with some suspicion.

格魯喬•馬克思(Groucho Marx)稱，他會拒絕加入任何願意納他為會員的俱樂部。然而，他並不試圖阻止他的朋友加入。這正是美國在面臨亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（AIIB，簡稱：亞投行）時的做法。亞投行是中國主導籌建的機構，華盛頓方面對它持懷疑態度。

One Beijing-based US executive scoffed at the very notion that China could run a multilateral institution. It did not know the first thing about how such a bank should be governed, he said.

一名常駐北京的美國高管對於中國可以運作一家多邊機構的想法嗤之以鼻。他稱，中國壓根不知道這樣一家銀行該如何管理。

Opponents of the AIIB whispered that it would lend to dictators, despoil the environment and trample on human rights. (Western institutions, of course, have never done any such thing.) The AIIB may turn out very differently from this caricature.

亞投行的反對者竊語稱，它會借錢給獨裁者、破壞環境並且踐踏人權。（當然，西方機構從未做過這類事。）但亞投行也許會成為與這種諷刺描繪非常不同的機構。

It is just possible that it will even exceed the standards of existing institutions. With 57 members, including Europeans such as the UK, Germany and Sweden [ARE ALL 56 NON-CHINA APPLICANTS CONFIRMED NOW? SOME REPORTS TALK OF SWEDEN AS AN ‘APPLICANT’ BUT THAT MAY BE OUT OF DATE]n, it is evolving fast and may end up an entirely different institution from the one Beijing envisaged.

它可能甚至將比現有機構達到更高的標準。亞投行擁有包括歐洲的英國、德國和瑞典在內的57個意向創始成員國，它正快速發展，也許最終會變成一家與北京方面的設想完全不同的機構。

Last week, members met in Singapore to draw up articles of agreement. With input from both China, which has proved it knows a thing or two about development, and western countries, which have a better record of implementing safeguards, the project has made a promising start.

上週，成員國談判代表在新加坡開會，起草協議章程。在中國（事實證明它對發展之事略知一二）和西方國家（它們有實施保障措施的更佳記錄）的共同努力下，該項目已經實現了一個光明的開端。

The bank will have initial capital of $100bn, double that originally intended. That will make it a serious challenger to the Asian Development Bank, the 50-year-old Tokyo-dominated regional bank with capital of $150bn. China will have the biggest capital quota[IN TERMS OF... CAPITAL INPUT AND INFLUENCE?], probably about 25 per cent. India will have the second-largest, then Russia, Germany, Australia and Indonesia. Overall, 75 per cent of the bank’s capital — and therefore voting rights — are likely to be Asian. Initial indications are that China will not have a veto.

亞投行將擁有1000億美元的法定資本，比最初目標金額高出一倍。這將對亞洲開發銀行（Asian Development Bank，簡稱：亞開行）構成嚴峻挑戰。亞開行是由東京主導建立的區域性銀行，已經成立了50年，註冊資本為1500億美元。中國將擁有亞投行最高的持股比例，可能達到25%左右。印度將成為第二大股東，隨後是俄羅斯、德國、澳大利亞和印尼。整體來看，亞投行75%的資本可能來自亞洲，亞洲也將因此擁有相應的投票權。初步跡象表明中國不會擁有否決權。

The bank will be based in Beijing. It will have a non-resident board that meets periodically in the Chinese capital and convenes by video conference. At first glance, this could raise the suspicion that the AIIB will have less rigorous oversight than the World Bank, with its resident board that approves all loans. Yet many see the World Bank board as expensive — it costs $70m a year — and cumbersome.

該銀行的總部將設在北京。它將擁有一個非常駐董事會，定期在中國首都開會，並在其他時候召開視頻會議。乍看之下，這可能會引起人們的懷疑，認為亞投行的監督機制將不如世界銀行(World Bank)嚴格，後者有常駐董事會，對所有貸款進行審批。不過，很多人認為世界銀行的董事會花費太高——每年7000萬美元——而且頗為不靈活。

David Dollar, a World Bank veteran who has acted as an unpaid consultant to the AIIB, says the World Bank had become so slow and risk-averse that most governments had stopped coming to it for infrastructure financing. He quotes an Indian official, exasperated at the pace of World Bank-sponsored projects, as saying: “Mr Dollar, the combination of our bureaucracy and your bureaucracy is deadly.”

為亞投行擔任無報酬顧問的世界銀行前官員杜大偉(David Dollar)稱，世界銀行已經變得如此低效而規避風險，以至於絕大多數政府已經不再向其申請基礎設施融資。他引用一名被世界銀行資助項目的進度激怒的印度官員的話説：“杜大偉先生，我們的官僚主義再加上你們的官僚主義，簡直要命。”

The hope, he says, is that the AIIB can combine the best of both worlds. “The enthusiastic response of developing countries in Asia to the AIIB concept reflects their sympathy with the idea that a bank can have good safeguards and still be quicker and more efficient than the existing banks,” he writes.

他稱，希望在於亞投行可以結合兩方面的優點。“亞洲發展中國家對亞投行概念的熱情響應反映出，他們認同這樣的想法——一家銀行既可以擁有良好的保障措施、又可以比現有銀行更快更有效率，”他寫道。

In Jin Liqun, tipped to become the AIIB’s first president, China’s new institution has one of the country’s most experienced technocrats. He is a former deputy finance minister and a former ADB vice-president. His job will not be easy. With such high-profile western involvement, the AIIB will find its projects (a dam in Myanmar here, a highway through an Indonesian township there) scrutinised by board members from the likes of Germany. By inviting in so many foreign participants, Beijing has probably given up on the idea that the AIIB can be a crude instrument of Chinese diplomacy. It may even be having buyers’ regret.

有金立羣坐鎮，中國牽頭籌建的這家新機構便有了中國最富經驗的技術專家。他是中國財政部前副部長、亞開行前副行長，預計將成為亞投行第一任行長。他的工作將不容易。在西方如此高調的介入下，亞投行會發現，來自德國等國的董事會成員將嚴格審查其項目（比如緬甸的一座水壩，或者穿越印尼鄉鎮的一條公路）。邀請了如此多的外國參與者，北京可能已經放棄了把亞投行直接當中國外交工具的想法。它甚至可能有種“買過就後悔”的感覺。

In one way, though, the bank is a success before it has even started. It has triggered what one commentator calls “infrastructure wars”. The ADB has performed some accounting magic in order to increase the amount it can lend. ADB officials say the bank will review approval procedures so that it can match the AIIB’s expected greater speed. On the day that AIIB members met in Singapore, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, announced that Tokyo would make $110bn available for infrastructure projects in Asia over five years. These, he implied, would be of higher quality than those led by China.

不過，從某種意義來講，亞投行甚至在成立前就已經成功。它引發了一位評論員所稱的“基礎設施之戰”。為了增加可以放貸的金額，亞開行已經施展了一些“會計戲法”。亞開行官員稱，該行將審查貸款審批流程，以趕上預期中亞投行更快的速度。就在亞投行成員國在新加坡開會當天，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)宣佈，東京將在未來五年為亞洲基礎設施項目提供1100億美元。他暗示，這些會比中國主導的項目質量更高。

Like Groucho Marx, Japan and the US are not rushing to join the new club. Yet if the AIIB proves as effective as its advocates hope, before long even Tokyo and Washington may be angling for membership.

就像格魯喬•馬克思一樣，日本和美國並不急於加入亞投行這個新俱樂部。不過，如果亞投行證實如其擁護者所希望的那樣高效的話，不久以後連東京和華盛頓甚至都可能謀求加入。