中国房地产过剩不会影响到大城市
China's housing market is recovering, but unevenly. First-tier cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, have seen a real estate boom in the first two months of the year, with housing inventory dropping after the government issued a series of policies aimed at clearing the property glut across the country.
中国的房地产市场正在复苏，但并不平均。包括北京、上海和深圳在内的一线城市，在今年前两个月都看到了房地产热潮。随着住屋库存的下降，政府出台了一系列旨在清理房地产过剩的政策。New home prices in January increased about 52.7 percent year-on-year in Shenzhen, followed by Shanghai (21.4 percent) and Beijing (11.3 percent), according to a recent report of the National Bureau of Statistics. In many third- and fourth-tier cities, however, a notable overhang of unsold houses continues to limit the expected increase in housing prices.
国家统计局最近的一份报告显示，一月份深圳的屋价上涨了约52.7%，其次是上海的21.4%和北京的11.3%。然而在许多三、四线城市，未售出的房屋过剩仍然限制着屋价的预期增加。China has less than 720 million square meters of unsold commercial residential buildings that have finished construction.
截止目前为止，中国完成建设的商品住宅房面积不足7.2亿平方米。
The total undeveloped real estate land, on the other hand, is more than 366 million sq m, which roughly equals 1 billion sq m of commercial housing. The designed buildings, if all of them finish construction, could be sold in 10 months or so.
另一方面，中国未开发的房地产用地总面积为3.66亿平米，这大致相当于10亿平米商品房。那些已经进入设计阶段的建筑，如果完成建设，将会在10个月左右出售。The more than 300 third-tier cities and 2,000 fourth-tier cities or counties, characterized by less advanced industrial development, limited inflow of non-local people and relatively weak demand for commercial housing, need not worry too much about their housing inventory.
300多个三线城市和2000多个四线城市或者区县，由于其工业发展较慢，非本地人口流入有限，所以对商品房的需求比较低，不必过分担心自己的住屋存量。The real dangers are in major cities, where land is becoming increasingly scarce, property prices are escalating, demand for low-cost housing is high and real estate financing remains unregulated.
真正的房地产危机存在于大城市中。在大城市中，土地变得越来越稀缺，房地产价格持续上涨，对低成本住屋的需求较高，房地产融资仍然不受监管。Of the four first-tier cities, Guangzhou has seen the mildest change in housing prices, while Shenzhen, although known for a drastic increase in prices of new homes, actually lags behind many smaller cities in terms of the amounts involved in transactions.
在四个一线城市当中，广州市的屋价已经出现轻微改变，而深圳，虽然新屋价格大幅上升，却在交易金额方面落后于许多较小的城市。
