金融風險的管理

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Over the past few decades we have seen a steady movement towards a more managerial response to these forms of risk. What has emerged is the discipline of risk management. We could define risk management as "the identification, analysis and economic control of those risks which can threaten the assets or earning capacity of an enterprise."

This definition is valuable because it highlights the structured approach which is called for if risks to the business environment are to be managed.

The three-fold nature of risk management is highlighted in the definition. Risks must be identified before they can be measured, and only after their impact has been evaluated can we decide on the most effective method of control.

However we decide to control risk, it must be "economic." There is no point in spending ten pounds to control a risk which can only ever cost five pounds. There will always be a point where spending on risk control has stop.

The definition mentions the assets and earning capacity of an organization. These assets can be physical or human; they are both important and risk management must be seen to have a part to play in both. However, risks do not only strike at assets directly and for this reason the definition also mentions the earning capacity of an enterprise.

Note that the definition uses the word "enterprise" rather than a more restrictive word such as "company" or "manufacturer". The principles of risk management are just as applicable in the service sectors as they are in the manufacturing sectors, and are of equal importance in the public and private sectors of the economy.

When considering risk identification we must remember to take the broad view. We are not solely concerned with what can be insured, or even with what can be controlled. We start from the very basic question, "How can the assets or earning capacity of the enterprise be threatened?" Starting from this position does not place any constraint on us as to what kind of risks we are looking for. We must begin the task in an unblinking manner and identify the whole host of ways in which an organization may be impeded from achieving its objectives.

We could say that there are at least two essentials if risk identification is to be effective.

Firstly, risk identification must be importantly recognized within an enterprise. When this is case, it is often marked down as a task within the job descriptions of a particular manager.

Secondly, the person responsible for risk identification must be armed with the relevant "tools of the trade" and must make use of them.

Once it has been identified that there is a risk, steps have to be taken to measure the potential impact of that risk on the organization. In a practical sense the measurement of risk starts with the gathering of information, followed by tile analysis of past experience, and then moves on to see what the data tells us about the level of frequency and severity of the risk to which an organization is exposed.

We can split the whole area of risk control into physical and financial control.

Physical risk control

We are concerned here with physical steps which can be taken in order to control risk. The first step must be to reduce the level of the risk as far as possible. This means both the chance that something will happen and the severity of the incident, should it occur. There are at least two ways in which we could understand risk reduction.

Pre-loss risk reduction

It is possible to take steps before any event has occurred to minimize risk. The essence of pre-loss reduction of risk is that the effects of the loss are anticipated and steps are taken to ensure that they are kept to a minimum.

Wearing a car seatbelt is a good, personal example. There has been no loss, but the possible effect of a loss has been anticipated and the pre-loss risk reduction step of wearing a belt has been taken.

The use of safety guards on machinery, is an industrial equivalent. There has been no injury, but steps have been taken to reduce the risk of injury.

Post-loss risk control

This form of risk control imagines that the risk has occurred and takes steps to minimize the effect of the loss. The use of automatic fire sprinkler systems fits into this category. Once the fire has started, the sprinklers operate to reduce the impact of the fire.

Financial risk control

We now turn our attention to financial mechanisms which can be used to control risk. These can be divided into two categories.

Risk retention

Once the risk has been identified and controlled in some physical way, it will be necessary to consider how the effects are to be financed, should the worst happen.

In certain situations, it may be wise to retain the risk rather than to seek another form of protection, such as insurance. We have already mentioned the problems associated with insuring high frequency, low severity events and they certainly fall into the self-retention category. The cost of these events could be paid for out of current income and passed on to the customer via the price of the product (or service) , which is offered by the organization. Alternatively a fund could be established, out of which the losses are to be paid.

Risk transfer

Insurance is a risk transfer mechanism by which an organization can exchange its uncertainty for certainty. The uncertainty experienced would include whether a loss will occur, when it will take place, how severe it will be and how frequent there might be in a year. This uncertainty makes it very difficult to budget and so the organization seeks ways of controlling the financial effect of the risk. Insurance offers the opportunity to exchange this uncertain loss for a certain loss: the insurance premium. The organization agrees to pay a fixed premium, in return, the insurance company agrees to meet any losses which fall within the terms of the policy. This is a risk transfer mechanism which is of immense value not only to industry, but also to individuals.

在過去的幾十年我們已經看到對於這些風險的管理方法越來越趨於穩定。出現了風險管理的原則。我們可以把風險管理定義爲“對那些會威脅企業資產和收入能力的風險進行識別、分析和經濟控制”。

這個定義十分有用，因爲它強調，如果商業環境出現風險而必須進行管理時，要用系統的方法來管理。

定義中已經強調了風險管理的三方面。風險在估計前必須先識別，只有估計出它們的影響後，我們才能決定出控制它們的最有效的方法。

不管我們決定怎樣控制風險，都必須是“經濟”的。花費10英磅去控制只需花費5英磅的風險是沒有意義的，停止控制風險纔有意義。

定義涉及一個組織機構的資產和收人能力。這些資產可以是物質的也可以是人力的，兩者都很重要。而且必須看到，風險管理對這兩者都起作用。然而風險不只是直接影響資產，爲此定義中也涉及了企業的收人能力。

要注意定義中用的詞是“企業”而不是用其他的像“公司”或“製造商”這樣限制性的詞。風險管理的原則在服務部門的應用跟在製造部門的應用是一樣的，並且在社會公共領域和私人領域中同等重要。

就風險識別而言，我們必須記得要從宏觀上來看。我們不僅只是關心什麼能被保，或者什麼能被控制。我們從最基本的問題開始，“企業的資產和收入能力怎樣受到威脅?”從這點出髮絲毫不會限制我們要尋找什麼樣的風險。我們必須毫不隱瞞地開始這項任務，積極識別妨礙一個企業達到其目標的所有方面。

我們可以說，要有效進行風險識別至少有兩個要點。

第一，必須認識到風險的識別在企業內部是很重要的。這時，這一點經常被納入某個經理的工作範疇。

第二，負責風險識別的人員必須配備有關的“技術工具”，並且必須利用這些工具。

一旦識別有風險，就要採取措施估計風險對企業的潛在影響。風險估計的實際做法是首先要收集信息，然後分析以往經驗，再通過數據掌握一個企業所暴露出來的風險頻率和(或)幅度。

我們可以把整個風險領域劃分爲物質上的風險控制和財務上的風險控制。

物質上的風險控制

這裏我們關心的是可以採取什麼樣的物質措施控制風險。第一步必須是儘可能地減輕風險的程度。一旦事件發生，就意味着事情發生的可能性以及事情的嚴重程度。我們可以看到至少有兩種方法可以減少風險。

防損

在事件發生前採取措施把風險降到最低是可能的。防損就是預測損失並採取措施以保證風險保持在最低。

對此，開車系安全帶就是一個很好的個人的例子。這就是進行了風險預測，然後採取了系安全帶的防災舉措。預測了可能發生的損失，繫上安全帶就是採取了損失控制措施。

機器上運用安全防禦措施也是一樣。沒有發生傷亡，但還是會採取措施減少傷亡危險。

減損

這種風險控制則是想象風險已經發生，然後要採取措施把損失造成的影響降到最低。火災自動灑水系統的運用就屬於這種風險控制。—旦火災開始，灑水系統就會啓動以減少火災造成的影響。

財務上的風險控制

我們現在要注意看的是控制風險的財務方法。它可以分爲兩類。

風險自留

一旦風險被確認並且用某種自然方法進行了控制，就有必要考慮如果發生最糟的情形將要怎樣用金錢計算出其產生的影響。

在某些情況下，保留風險而不去尋求另一種保護，例如保險，是明智的。我們已經提到過一些跟高頻率低幅度的事件有關的風險，它們肯定歸入自我保留一類。這些事件的費用可以從現有收入中扣除，並且以企業提供的產品(或服務)的價錢傳遞給消費者。或者可以建立一筆基金，從中支出損失。

風險轉移

保險是一種風險轉移過程。通過它，一個企業可以把它的不確定性轉換成確定性。常有的不確定性包括：損失是否會發生，什麼時候會發生，會有多嚴重，一個時期內會發生多少次。這種不確定性使得預算變得非常困難，所以企業找尋控制財務支出的方法以及把不確定損失轉換成確定損失的機會，即保險保費。企業同意支付一定數額的保費，反過來，保險公司同意承擔保單條款範圍內的任何損失。這是一個風險轉移過程，不只是對某行業而且對個人都很有利。