雙語閱讀：不要嘲笑“自信的傻子”

US late night talk show host Jimmy Kimmel features a recurring “Lie Witness News” section in his program. In the gag, pedestrians are asked a variety of questions with false premises.

美國深夜脫口秀(雞毛秀)的主持人吉米•科莫爾的節目中總是包含一個整人單元“Lie Witness News”。在這個搞笑單元中，路人會被問及各種各樣莫須有的問題。

In one episode, Kimmel’s crew asked people whether they thought the 2014 film Godzilla was insensitive to survivors of the 1954 giant lizard attack on Tokyo; in another, they asked whether former US president Bill Clinton gets enough credit for ending the Korean War.

比如某一期中，《吉米秀》的工作人員提出的問題就是：你認爲2014年的電影《哥斯拉》是否沒有顧及1954年東京巨蜥襲擊倖存者們的感情?另一期裏，人們則被問及：美國總統比爾•克林頓是不是終結了朝鮮戰爭的大功臣?

These are absurd questions, but surprisingly, many interviewees fall into Kimmel’s trap. Some appear willing to say just about anything on camera to hide their cluelessness about the subject at hand. Others seem eager to please, not wanting to let the interviewer down by giving the most boring response: I don’t know.

這些問題聽來荒.唐，但令人驚訝的是，很多受訪者竟然真得中招。很多人爲了掩飾自己的無知，在攝像機前侃侃而談。另一些人不想用一句掃興的“我不知道”讓採訪者失望，於是極力取悅採訪者。。

But for some of these interviewees, says David Dunning, a professor of psychology at Cornell University, the trap may be an even deeper one. The most confident-sounding respondents often seem to think they do have some clue.

美國康奈爾大學的心理學教授大衛•達寧表示，對某些受訪者而言，這些陷阱也許並不簡單，因爲其中那些聽上去最自信的受訪者似乎堅信自己知道一些答案。

Don’t laugh at these “confident idiots”, Dunning says writing in the Pacific Standard website, every one of us might behave just like one in similar situations.

達寧在Pacific Standard網站上的一篇文章中寫道：不要嘲笑這些“自信的傻子”，因爲大家在類似的情境中都可能表現的和他們一樣。

With his colleagues at Cornell, Dunning carries out ongoing research in a lab that is constructed similarly to Kimmel’s gag.

在一個類似吉米•科莫爾搞笑節目的實驗室裏，達寧與康奈爾大學的其他同事一起正在做一個類似的實驗。

They ask survey respondents if they are familiar with certain technical concepts from physics, biology, politics, and geography. A fair number claim familiarity with genuine terms like centripetal force and photon.

他們詢問受訪者是否熟悉物理、生物、政治以及地理領域的某些概念，結果顯示，相當一部分認爲自己熟悉這些真實存在的概念，例如，向心力、光子。

But interestingly, they also claim they know about concepts that are entirely made up. In fact, Dunning says, the more knowledgeable respondents considered themselves on a general topic, the more familiarity they claimed with the meaningless terms associated with it.

但有趣的是，他們同樣還認爲自己也瞭解一些憑空編造出來的概念。而達寧說，事實上，受訪者越是認爲自己瞭解某個領域，就越容易聲稱自己熟悉那些與之有關的、不存在的術語。

Foggy perception

朦朧的感覺

The result, according to Dunning, is not surprising. For more than 20 years, he has researched people’s understanding and evaluation of their knowledge, reasoning and learning. As it turns out, although what we know is often perceptible to us, even the broad outlines of what we don’t know are all too often completely invisible.

在達寧看來，這一結果並不奇怪。過去的二十多年間，達寧一直致力於研究人類對其知識、推理與學習的理解和評價。研究發現，我們常常能對自己的所知有所認識，但是對於我們所不知道的東西，我們卻一點都感覺不到。

To a great degree, Dunning says, we fail to recognize the frequency and scope of our ignorance.

達寧表示，很大程度上，我們並知道自己“無知”的範圍。

You’d think our ignorance would leave us confused or cautious. But instead, our ignorance is often accompanied with an inappropriate confidence, boosted by something that feels to us like knowledge.

你可能以爲無知會讓我們變得迷茫或是謹慎。但是事實卻恰恰相反，我們的無知常常與不合理的自信相伴而來，而我們自以爲是知識的東西又進一步加深了我們的無知。

Other studies also confirm that people who don’t know much about a given set of cognitive, technical, or social skills tend to greatly overestimate their ability and performance. Dunning gives an example: College students who hand in exams that will earn them Ds and Fs tend to think their efforts will be worthy of far higher grades.

另一些研究也證實：當人們對某一認知、科技或社會技能不甚瞭解時，更容易高估自己的能力和表現。達寧給出了一個例子：在大學考試中得了D或者F的同學更容易認爲，自己所付出的努力應該換回更好的成績。

Occasionally, Dunning says, our ignorance and misplaced confidence can lead to disasters.

達寧說，有時候，我們的無知加上不該有的自信會引起大災難。