今年下崗落誰家: 美國辦公室職員崗位大減

The US has gained 387,000 managers and lost almost 2m clerical jobs since 2007, as new technologies replace office work.rs and plunge the American middle class deeper into crisis.

自2007年以來，美國管理者崗位增加38.7萬個，辦公室職員崗位則減少近200萬個，新技術取代了辦公室員工，讓美國中產階級陷入更深的危機。

New data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics divide the US workforce into 821 jobs from dishwasher to librarian.

美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labour Statistics)的最新數據將美國勞動力劃分爲821種工作，從洗碗工到圖書管理員。

They show rapid structural shifts – on top of a cyclical unemployment rate of 7.7 per cent – that may drive up income inequality.

這些數據顯示，快速結構性變化——再加上7.7%的週期失業率——可能會加劇收入不平等狀況。

The figures help explain why the US median household income has fallen 5.6 per cent since June 2009 to $51,404, even as the economy recovers. The top 10 per cent of American earners, meanwhile, are collecting most all the fruits of the recovery.

這些數據有助於解釋，即便在經濟復甦之際，美國家庭收入中值自2009年6月爲何仍下滑5.6%，至5.1404萬美元。同時，收入最高的10%美國人正收穫大部分經濟復甦的成果。

One likely cause of rising inequality is new computing technologies that destroy some middle-class occupations even as they create jobs for highly-skilled workers who can exploit them.

收入不平等加劇的一個可能原因在於，新的電腦技術摧毀了一些中產階級崗位，即便它們爲能夠利用這些技術的高技能員工創造了就業。

The number of clerical workers such as book-keepers, tellers, data entry keyers, file clerks and typists has been falling, pointing to structural decline. The number of retail cashiers has dropped, an indication that internet shopping and self-checkout systems may be eroding another occupation.

簿記員、出納員、數據錄入員、檔案管理員和打字員等辦公室職員崗位的數量一直下滑，說明其出現結構性下降。零售收銀員崗位數量下降，表明互聯網購物和自助結賬系統可能正在侵蝕另一項職業。

Jobs growth came from healthcare, management, computing and food service jobs. The number of personal care aides is up by 390,000 since 2007. Demand for people who figure out how to replace clerical workers – such as operations managers, management analysts and logisticians – grew substantially.

就業增長來自醫療、管理、計算機和食品服務崗位。自2007年以來個人護理助手的數量增加了39萬。對於掌握如何代替辦公室職員的人才（例如運營經理、管理分析師和物流專員）的需求大幅上升

“We see growth in jobs that require complex, personalised interactions – such as home health aides – and continued declines in routine transaction and production jobs that can be scripted and automated,” said Susan Lund, co-author of a McKinsey Global Institute report on the future of work.

麥肯錫全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute)一篇有關工作未來的報告的聯合作者蘇珊•蘭德(Susan Lund)表示：“我們看到，需要複雜且個性化互動的工作崗位有所增加，例如家庭健康助理，而可以編程和自動化的常規交易和生產工作繼續減少。”

But salaries for many of the fast-growing occupations are lower than those they are replacing. The average wage for a clerical job in 2012 was $34,410 compared with $24,550 in personal care. The average computing wage was $80,180 and $108,570 for managers.

但很多增長迅速的職業的薪資水平低於被取代的工作崗位。去年，辦公室職員的平均年薪爲3.4410萬美元，而個人護理工作爲2.4450萬美元。計算機工作的平均年薪爲8.0180萬美元，管理者爲10.8570萬美元。

However, Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, noted that even high-skill job growth has slowed in the last decade. “People focus a lot on occupational trends but it’s not clear to me that they are what’s driving wage outcomes. What I think is going on is much bigger . . . employers have the upper hand in every area of work.”

然而，位於華盛頓的經濟政策研究所(Economic Policy Institute)所長勞倫斯•米舍爾(Lawrence Mishel)指出，過去10年，甚至連高技能工作的增速也有所放緩。“人們大量關注於職業趨勢，但我並不清楚，這些趨勢是否在推動薪資結果。我認爲，另一個趨勢要重大得多……僱主在每個工作領域都佔了上風。”

The shift shows how hard it will be for policy makers to halt or reverse the rise in income inequality. Clerical workers still account for 16 per cent of US jobs, and technology is likely to keep on eliminating them.

這一變化表明，政策制定者要阻止或逆轉收入不平等狀況加劇將有多麼困難。辦公室職員工作仍佔美國全部工作崗位的16%，科技可能會繼續削減這些工作。