時尚雙語:國際能源署對全球能源前景敲響警鐘

Why Coal May Burn More Brightly

The International Energy Agency painted a tough energy outlook for coming years, with tightening oil supplies and a surge in global-warming emissions as China and India burn more coal to power their booming economies.

國際能源署(International Energy Agency)爲今後幾年的能源市場描繪了一幅暗淡的圖景。它預計石油供應將吃緊，而中國、印度等國煤炭消耗量增加將導致全球溫室氣體排放量進一步上升。

The industrialized world's energy watchdog also predicted fast-growing China will displace the U.S. as both the world's biggest polluter this year and the largest energy consumer by 2010, based on current trends.

IEA還預計，經濟高速發展的中國今年將取代美國，成爲全球最大的污染物排放國，並且從目前趨勢看，中國將在2010年後成爲最大的能源消耗國。

The Paris-based group, in its annual forecast, said a number of factors, including the soaring cost of oil, will contribute to a boom in coal. Aging and less-productive oil fields and resistance among major oil exporters to build spare oil capacity will make crude oil and natural gas more expensive and prompt developing countries to turn increasingly to the world's dirtiest fossil fuel.

總部位於巴黎的IEA在其年度報告中表示，油價飆升等衆多因素將繼續刺激煤炭的使用。油田的長期開採和產量下降以及主要石油出口國不願增加新產能等因素將進一步推高原油和天然氣價格，促使發展中國家更多地轉向煤炭這種全球污染最嚴重的化石燃料。

The annual World Energy Outlook, released as U.S. benchmark crude rose 20 cents to $96.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange trading Wednesday morning, also details a continued surge in oil demand that could result in a serious supply crunch around 2015. The agency, which acts as an energy think tank funded by the world's 26 most-advanced economies, portrays a world that by 2030 will be consuming 55% more energy than it is now, with almost half of the growth because of soaring demand in China and India. While oil will remain the world's largest source of energy in terms of metric tons of oil equivalent, at 32%, coal's share is expected to jump to 28%, up from 25% now, contributing to a 57% increase in carbon emissions.

IEA 在其年度報告《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中還詳細論述了石油需求的繼續增長可能會在2015年前後帶來嚴重的供應問題。報告預計，到2030年，全球能源消耗量將比目前增加 55%，其中約有一半的增長來自中國和印度。儘管從噸油當量指標來看，屆時石油仍將是全球最大的能源來源，所佔比重爲32%，但煤炭的比重預計將從目前的 25%上升到28%，在碳排放增加量中佔到57%。

Barring unforeseen changes in government policy to reduce oil consumption, the IEA predicts that world-wide oil demand will hit 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from about 85 million barrels a day now. Electricity use will nearly double, with most of the globe's new plants burning coal.

IEA預計，除非各國政府採取措施抑制石油消費，否則全球石油消耗量將在2030年達到每天1.16億桶，遠高於目前的約8,500萬桶。全球的大多數新工廠都將使用煤炭，用電量將增加近一倍。

For nearly all economies, the tough question is on the supply side. The IEA foresees a boost in production from new fields in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, but warns that 'it is very uncertain' whether these new sources 'will be sufficient to compensate for the decline in output at existing fields' in the Middle East and among other big producers such as Russia, Mexico and Venezuela.

對幾乎所有經濟體來說，他們都面臨着供應面的嚴峻考驗。IEA預計，中東尤其是沙特阿拉伯的新油田產量將會增加，但該組織警告說，很不確定這是否能夠補償中東和俄羅斯、墨西哥及委內瑞拉等石油生產大國現有油田產量的下降。

The resulting pinch in supply could result in 'an abrupt escalation in oil prices' around 2015, an event the agency said 'cannot be ruled out.' The dramatic rise in oil prices to nearly $100 a barrel from about $50 in early January has invigorated debate over whether oil prices will go far higher in coming years, or will taper off from a spike that some critics insist is largely driven by speculation.

由此帶來的供應面的緊張可能導致油價在2015年前後大幅上漲，IEA表示不能排除這種可能性。今年以來，國際油價已從年初的每桶50美元左右飆升至目前的近100美元，今後幾年油價將繼續上揚還是會衝高回落成了人們爭論的問題。一些評論人士堅持認爲，目前油價的上漲主要是由投機行爲推動的。

The IEA bluntly says consumers and governments globally are doing too little to improve energy-supply security and to cut pollution. Even under the most optimistic assumptions, global carbon emissions -- the main culprit blamed for global warming -- will be 25% higher in 2030 from today's levels.

IEA坦率地表示，全球的消費者和政府所作甚少，不足以加強能源供應安全和降低污染。即使按照最樂觀的假設，到2030年時全球的碳排放量也將比目前水平增加25%。

'The pathway we're on is not sustainable' both for the health of the environment and for securing stable energy supplies in the future, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka told journalists in London. 'Time is running out.'

IEA執行幹事田中伸男(Nobuo Tanaka)在倫敦向記者表示，無論從環保角度還是保持未來能源供應穩定的角度看，我們目前的做法都是不可持續的。時機正在一點點喪失。

China and India are setting the tone of global energy markets with the size of their populations, each over one billion, and double-digit economic growth rates. The IEA predicts that the two Asian countries combined will import more oil in 2030 than Japan and the U.S. do today. China and India also will account for 80% of the growth in coal consumption over the next two decades, with China tapping abundant domestic supplies but India having to import more of what it needs.

中國和印度正在全球能源市場扮演着越來越重要的角色，兩國的人口數量都超過10億，經濟增長率都在兩位數以上。IEA預計，這兩個亞洲國家到2030年的石油進口總量將超過目前日本和美國的進口量之和。在今後20年中，全球新增煤炭消費量將有80%來自中國和印度，中國有着充足的國內供應，而印度則需要進口更多煤炭。

While the IEA focused its most recent outlook on China and India, it also forecast booming demand in the Middle East. Oil use there is expected to hit 7.9 million barrels a day by 2015, more than twice the predicted demand in India.

儘管IEA在報告中重點關注了中國和印度市場，但它預計中東地區的需求也將增長。預計2015年時，中東地區的原油消耗量將達到每天790萬桶，是印度預期需求量的兩倍以上。

Although China is taking measures to mitigate global-warming emissions, the Asian giant is to become the world's biggest polluter this year in absolute terms and the largest energy consumer, ahead of the U.S., shortly after 2010, based on current trends, according to the IEA outlook. On a per-capita-emissions basis, the U.S. is expected to remain the world's biggest greenhouse gas producer over the next two decades.

儘管中國正在採取措施減少污染物的排放，但IEA在報告中預測，照目前趨勢發展，以絕對值衡量，中國今年將成爲全球最大的污染排放國，並在2010年之後不久取代美國成爲最大的能源消耗國。按人均排放量統計，預計美國在今後20年仍將是全球最大的溫室氣體排放國。

Renewable energy sources such as solar will grow in use in certain areas, like the U.K., but the current logistical challenges and costs of using and developing them mean all renewable energy sources will remain a fraction of total energy use globally in 2030 at about 10%, unchanged from today.

太陽能等可再生能源在英國等一些國家將得到更廣泛的使用，但目前的物流難題及應用和開發成本意味着，到2030年時，全球的所有可再生能源在全部能源中所佔比例仍將保持在目前的10%左右。

The IEA says improved energy efficiency, technical improvements for burning coal more cleanly, and building more nuclear power plants, which emit almost no carbon emissions, are some of the responses consumers and governments must take to ease energy-supply concerns and to cut carbon gases.

IEA表示，提高能源效率、發展清潔煤炭技術及建設更多的核電站是消費者和政府必須採取的緩解能源供應緊張和減少溫室氣體排放的對策。

Such measures are critical because finding new oil and gas supplies around the world is getting far more expensive and unpredictable even though state-run and publicly traded energy companies are sinking hundreds of billions of dollars into exploration efforts. Part of the oil and gas supply problem in the years ahead also stems from a more disciplined approach by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increasing spare oil-production capacity. The 12-nation producer group says it is spending more than $100 billion currently on new projects, but it doesn't want to be stuck with too much capacity down the road in case demand falters, which would then squeeze oil prices.

這些措施至關重要，因爲儘管國有和上市能源公司在勘探上投入了數千億美元，但在全球範圍內尋找新油氣田的成本越來越高，難度也越來越大。近年來油氣供應緊張的原因之一還在於石油輸出國組織(OPEC，簡稱：歐佩克)在增加新產能問題上採取了比較保守的做法。歐佩克表示，目前已投資1,000多億美元用於新項目建設，但爲了防止需求下降並進而打擊油價，它並不想大規模提高產能。

OPEC is expected to supply just over half the world's oil supply by 2030, compared with about 40% today, as non-OPEC production falls.

隨着非歐佩克國家產量的下降，到2030年時，估計歐佩克在全球石油供應中所佔的比例將超過50%，高於目前的約40%。