經濟廣角:美元勢將成爲下一個日圓?
Is the Dollar Set to Become the New Yen?
Investors have long borrowed and sold the Japanese currency en masse, using the proceeds to snap up higher-yielding assets outside the land of the rising sun. Dubbed 'the carry trade,' the strategy generated hefty returns until the world economic crisis soured investor bets, sending them scurrying back to buy yen and close out their positions.
Now, some currency watchers say investors are getting tempted into to giving the carry trade another try, only this time investors are considering using the dollar as the base of the trade. That could help explain some of the slide the buck has suffered lately and — if true — it'd likely mean more downward dollar pressure to come.
'The yen-based carry trade is relatively weak,' said Sebastien Galy, a senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas in New York. 'The yen has not picked up and the dollar is resuming and [the dollar] has no clear competitor right now as a funding currency.'
In the currency market carry trade, 'funding currencies' traditionally feature the low interest rates and low volatility traders want. (Volatility in the funding currency can wipe out the spread investors count on for their profits.)
For those reasons, the yen long held a cherished place in the hearts of carry traders. The Japanese currency featured rock-bottom interest rates put in place by the Bank of Japan, which has kept rates low in a long effort to re-energize the Japanese economy.
Unfortunately for the yen, the relentless selling pressure generated by those using the yen as a funding currency helped keep Japan's currency feeble. Some say similar pressures are falling on the dollar now.
'It's one thing that's working against the dollar,' said Philip Simotas, president of FX Concepts, a currency-focused hedge fund. 'It's a great currency to fund out of.'
In late August, by some measures, borrowing in dollars became cheaper than borrowing in Japanese yen for the first time in 16 years. Low U.S. rates, and the depth and liquidity of the dollar make the greenback attractive to traders who want to use it as the base for a carry trade.
To be sure, not everyone buys the notion that the dollar is now playing the part of the yen. 'I think it's certainly become a popular explanation of dollar weakness,' said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist for Wells Fargo in New York. 'It still feels a little bit like trying to fit the story to the facts rather than the other way around.'
But others point to the fact that the prospects for the yen have also grown more complicated lately after the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party was ousted by the Democratic Party of Japan in a landslide victory in an election in August. The incoming government is thought to be more open to the prospect of a strengthening yen.
Strengthening funding currencies are the last thing a carry trader wants to see. And unlike in the past, carry traders now have options, as central banks worldwide have hammered down rates in a concerted effort to galvanize the economy.
The Fed has also reinforced the message that interest rates will be low for the foreseeable future, and while there are signs of improvement in the U.S. economy, no one seems to be expecting an upturn sharp enough to force the Fed to start to tighten rates soon.
Investors also have noted the torrents of liquidity the Fed pumped into the system during the financial crisis, and are betting that will help keep a lid on the dollar going forward. Traders would rather see their funding currency drop in value, rather than increase, as rises eat into and eventually erase their profits. 'The fact that the U.S. dollar also appears to be in a protracted downtrend is serving as an additional encouragement for people to use the greenback as a funding currency,' said George Davis, chief FX technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
一直以來，投資者都在借入並賣出日圓，然後用購入的其他貨幣購買日本以外那些收益率更高的資產。在此次世界經濟危機使投資者的風險偏好大爲降低前，這種被稱爲“融資套利交易”的投資策略一直能夠創造豐厚回報。經濟危機發生後，投資者匆忙買回日圓以結清頭寸。
一些匯率觀察人士說，投資者現在又對融資套利交易躍躍欲試了，只不過他們這次考慮借入的貨幣是美元。這可能是美元匯率最近下跌的部分原因，如果真是這樣，則可能意味着美元未來還會遭遇更多下行壓力。
法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)駐紐約的高級貨幣策略師嘉裏(Sebastien Galy)說，以日圓爲買進貨幣的融資套利交易目前相對不活躍，日圓一直沒有起色，而美元的勢頭正在回升，美元作爲融資套利交易借入貨幣的地位目前沒有面臨明顯的競爭。
在外匯市場的融資套利交易中，交易商看重的那些借入貨幣通常都具有利率低、匯率波動性小的特點。(借入貨幣的匯率波動會抹去投資者賴以盈利的差價。)
正是由於這些原因，日圓曾一直是融資套利交易者心儀的借入貨幣。日本的利率低到了不能再低的水平，日本央行(Bank of Japan)爲使日本經濟恢復活力，一直將利率維持在低水平。
對日圓來說不幸的是，它作爲融資套利交易借入貨幣而遭遇的無情賣盤一定程度上導致日圓處於疲弱地位。有人說，同樣的賣盤壓力正降臨到美元頭上。
西莫塔斯(Philip Simotas)在專門投資匯市的對衝基金FX Concepts擔任總裁，他說，美元正在遭遇同樣的命運，美元是融資套利交易的理想借入貨幣。
一些指標顯示，8月末時，借入美元的成本16年來首次低於借入日圓的成本。美國的低利率、美元的市場深度和流動性使它成了對融資套利交易者有吸引力的借入貨幣。
當然，並非所有的人都認爲美元正在扮演日圓當年的角色。富國銀行(Wells Fargo)駐紐約的貨幣策略師斯拉伯里科夫(Vassili Serebriakov)認爲，美元成爲融資套利交易的借入貨幣顯然成了對美元疲軟之因的流行解釋，這讓人覺得有點像是倒果爲因。
但也有人指出，在日本民主黨通過今年8月的選舉以壓倒性優勢將長期執政的自民黨趕下臺後，日圓的未來前景最近已變得更加複雜。即將上任的日本新政府被認爲更能接受日圓走強的前景。
借入貨幣不斷走強是融資套利交易者最不願看到的事。與以往不同，這類交易者現在有了多種選擇，因爲世界各國的央行爲刺激經濟都在下調利率。
美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)也一直強調說，在可預見的未來美國利率都將保持在低位。雖然有跡象顯示美國經濟出現了改善，但似乎沒人認爲這種改善已強勁到足以迫使美聯儲很快開始上調利率。
投資者還注意到了美聯儲在金融危機期間向金融體系注入的大量流動性，並斷定未來一段時間這將對美元匯率構成上行阻力。融資套利交易者更樂見借入貨幣的匯率下跌而不是上漲，因爲匯率上揚會縮小甚至最終消除他們從這一交易中獲得的利潤。RBC Capital Markets駐多倫多的首席外匯技術分析師戴維斯(George Davis)說，美元似乎正呈現曠日持久的下行趨勢，這是鼓勵人們將美元作爲融資套利交易借入貨幣的又一理由。
