技術與全球化衝擊好工作

“Highest stock market EVER! Jobs are roaring back!” boasted Donald Trump in a tweet in December. The US president is the most prominent advocate of the idea that quantity is almost all that counts when it comes to jobs.

“史上最高位的股市！就業強勁迴歸！”唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)去年12月發推文誇口稱。主張在就業方面數量幾乎就是一切這種觀點的人中，這位美國總統是最著名的一位。

But job numbers alone are an increasingly crude barometer of economic health. For workers under pressure from changing technology and globalisation, a new measure is required, based on job quality as much as job quantity.

但單純從就業數據來判斷經濟健康狀況卻是越來越不精確了。不斷變化的技術和全球化使職場中人備受壓力，因此需要創建一個新的指標，同時考量工作崗位的數量和質量。

More subtle politicians have been quick to realise this. Philip Hammond, UK chancellor of the exchequer, referred in his Budget speech in November to a “relentless focus on getting more people into work”. But he added the condition that such work should be “good quality and well paid”.

比較敏銳的政客們很快就意識到了這一點。在去年11月的預算演講中，英國財政大臣菲利普?哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)提到了“要持續關注於讓更多的人有工作”。但他補充了前提條件，即這些工作應該是“質量好、薪酬豐厚的”。

A few days later, the UK government laid out four “grand challenges” of its industrial strategy, including the promotion of artificial intelligence. “Embedding AI across the UK will create thousands of good quality jobs and drive economic growth,” the strategy document insisted.

幾天後，英國政府闡述了其產業戰略的四項“重大挑戰”，其中包括推廣人工智能。該戰略文件堅稱：“讓AI廣佈全英國，將創造許多優質就業崗位，推動經濟增長。”

Recent history suggests the UK may be indulging in some wishful thinking. Automation is one of the forces identified by David Autor of MIT as squeezing out “good jobs” — the middle-skilled roles to which “ordinary working people” (to use the politicians’ mantra) would aspire.

近年來的情況表明，英國政府可能想得過於美好了。麻省理工學院(MIT)的戴維?奧特爾(David Autor)認爲自動化是把“好工作”排擠掉的力量之一。這裏說的“好工作”，是指“普通勞動人民”（這裏借用政客們的說法）所向往的中等技能工作崗位。

Globalisation is another such pressure. The remainder of the workforce is polarising into high-level managerial and professional posts and low-tier service jobs. Such good jobs as survive demand ever more sophisticated skills.

全球化則是另一股力量。職場上剩餘的勞動者正在分化爲高級管理和專業職位，以及低層次的服務崗位。這些尚存的好工作要求具備更高級的技能。

For managers who hold on to their positions, this poses new tests. Rick Wartzman, whose book The End of Loyalty is subtitled “The Rise and Fall of Good Jobs in America”, says the challenge starts with whether to cut jobs, or find ways to reposition staff for the automation revolution.

對於保住職位的經理們來說，這將帶來新考驗。《忠誠不再》(The End of Loyalty)的作者瑞克?沃茲曼(Rick Wartzman)說，挑戰始於是削減工作崗位，還是想辦法重新安排員工的崗位，以適應自動化革命。那本書的副標題是“美國好工作的興衰”(The Rise and Fall of Good Jobs in America)。

“Management is about making these kinds of decisions,” he told me. For instance, “[how] to put people, or combinations of people and technology, in the right position to maximise effectiveness. Doing an across-the-board cost-cutting exercise isn’t management.”

“管理就是要做出這一類的決定，”他告訴我說。例如，“（如何）把人或人和技術的組合放在合適位置，實現效率最大化。實施一套全方位的成本削減舉措算不上管理。”

The Brookings Institution recently looked at 14m “good jobs” in the US and found that their “digital score” — based on the knowledge, skills and tools needed to fulfil those roles — had risen from 29 to 50 between 2002 and 2016, out of a possible score of 100 for the most “digitally intense” occupations. In other words, basic digital skills are now a prerequisite for positions — mechanic, nurse, builder — which traditionally open the door to advancement for the two-thirds of Americans who lack a college degree.

不久前，布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)在研究美國的1400萬份“好工作”後發現，這些好工作的“數字技能分數”——基於履行這些職務所需的知識、技能和工具——從2002年的29分上升到2016年的50分。最高分100分，爲“數字密集度”最高的職位。換言之，具備基本數字技能已成爲從事技工、護士、建築工等職位的一個先決條件，而傳統上，幹這類工作的未取得大學學歷的美國人中，有三分之二的人有升職機會。

The same challenge is multiplied by many millions in populous, fast-growing countries such as India. One Indian manufacturing tycoon I met just shrugged when I asked whether he felt any responsibility to the staff he would have to lay off as he installed more sophisticated machines in his factories. His response was just one indication that digitalisation could slam the door in the face of many young Indians, who are counting on basic literacy and numeracy to open up decent production line jobs.

在印度等人口衆多、發展迅速的國家裏，同樣的挑戰被放大了無數倍。我問一位印度製造業大亨，他在自己工廠裏安裝更先進機器時，將不得不解僱一些員工，那麼他是否感覺對這些人負有責任？他的迴應只是聳聳肩。這不過是表明數字化可能會斷了許多印度年輕人工作門路的跡象之一，這些人指望着靠基本的讀寫和計算能力來謀求體面的生產線崗位。

Sometimes, a lack of such skills also blights the future of people forced out of good jobs. In Amy Goldstein’s book Janesville , workers laid off by General Motors flocked to the Wisconsin town’s college to retrain, only for their teachers to discover that some “didn’t even know how to turn [a computer] on”.

有時，缺乏此類技能也會毀掉那些丟掉好工作的人們的未來。在埃米?戈爾茨坦(Amy Goldstein)的著作《簡斯維爾》(Janesville)中，被通用汽車公司(General Motors)解僱的員工蜂擁至這個威斯康星州城鎮的大學進行再培訓，結果他們的老師卻發現有些人“甚至不會開機（電腦）”。

One responsibility of future managers is to ensure that this ground-level digital education is made available. “The next phase of the digital skills push needs to add a new, less-glamorous focus on IT basics such as Microsoft Office and basic customer relationship management (CRM) software to the cooler agenda of scaling up the code schools,” Brookings fellow Mark Muro wrote in a blogpost about the think-tank’s report.

未來管理者的職責之一是確保員工有機會獲得這種基礎數字教育。“推廣數字技能的下一階段，需要在增加編程學校的高大上議程之外，加上一個新的、不那麼迷人的關注點：微軟Office等IT基礎知識和基本的客戶關係管理(CRM)軟件，”布魯金斯學會研究員馬克?穆羅(Mark Muro)在一篇關於該智庫報告的博文中寫道。

The model, says Wartzman, needs to change to one in which managers offer staff opportunities for lifelong learning. Ideally, this should happen on the job, rather than after redundancy, when the efficacy of retraining may be undermined by the general lack of opportunities, as happened to Janesville’s unemployed car workers in the depths of the 2008-09 recession.

沃茲曼說，當前模式需要轉變爲管理者爲員工提供終身學習機會的模式。在理想情況下，這應該發生在工作中，而不是裁員之後——那種時候機會的普遍缺乏可能會削弱再培訓的效果，在2008年至2009年經濟嚴重衰退時期，簡斯維爾失業汽車工人就面臨這種情形。

The last resort may be to find ways to change the status of what used to be considered poor jobs. In Taiwan, the government successfully improved urban cleanliness by upgrading the “bad job” of street cleaning. It now comes with a salary close to the national average and a decent pension. Public competitions pit “clean teams” from different districts against each other.

最後一招是想辦法改變那些歷來被認爲很差的工作的地位。在臺灣，當局通過提高清潔街道這個“壞工作”的待遇，成功地讓城市變得更乾淨。現在，街道環衛工人的工資已接近臺灣的平均水平，並能拿到不錯的養老金。公共競賽讓不同地區的“清潔團隊”彼此展開競爭。

It is an idiosyncratic example, but it underlines a point that Trump may want to consider. Creating more jobs is a fine goal; creating better jobs is even finer.

這個例子有些特殊，但它凸顯了一個道理，也許特朗普願意花心思想一想。創造更多的工作崗位是一個美好的目標；而更值得追求的是創造優良的工作崗位。