油價持續反彈衝擊全球債市
Oil jumped to its highest level this year, nearing $70 a barrel and accelerating a sell-off in global debt markets.
油價昨日躍升至今年以來最高水平，接近每桶70美元，這加快了全球債務市場的拋售。It is now at its highest since Opec’s historic decision in November to let prices fall in a bid to claw back market share by squeezing higher-cost producers.
自石油輸出國組織（Opec，中文簡稱歐佩克）去年11月決定讓油價下跌，通過擠壓成本較高的生產商奪回市場份額以來，當前油價處於最高位。
Crude advanced after US oil inventories posted a weekly fall for the first time in four months and production from conflict-hit Libya suffered further falls.
原油價格上升之前，美國石油庫存四個月來首次錄得單週下降，同時深陷衝突的利比亞產量進一步下降。
Brent, the global benchmark, is now up more than 50 per cent since bottoming near $45 a barrel in January, boosted by stronger demand, near-record hedge fund buying and a slide in the US dollar.
全球基準布倫特(Brent)原油自1月份跌至每桶近45美元的谷底以來，已累計上漲逾50%，其推動因素包括更強勁的需求、逼近紀錄的對衝基金買盤，以及美元匯率走低。The rise in oil prices has encouraged expectations of higher long-term inflation rates — one factor driving a sell-off in bonds.
油價上漲鼓勵了長期通脹預期上揚，這是驅動債券拋售的一個因素。The rout threatens to halt a long-running rally in government debt that has been fuelled in part by the extraordinary measures taken by central banks in the wake of the financial crisis.
此輪拋售可能叫停政府債務持續已久的漲勢，後者在一定程度上受到各國央行在金融危機過後採取的非常規措施的助推。Prices for benchmark 10-year German bonds, considered a proxy for the wider European market, fell yesterday, sending yields, which move inversely to prices, to their highest point this year.
基準的10年期德國國債（被視爲歐洲市場整體的風向標）價格昨日下跌，收益率（與價格反向而行）升至今年以來最高點。The US bond market suffered collateral damage, with the 10-year US Treasury yield up 4 basis points to a two-month high of 2.22 per cent.
美國債券市場遭受附帶損害，其中10年期美國國債的收益率上升4個基點，至2.22%的兩個月高點。The sell-off came as Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen warned that bond yields could jump higher when the US central bank raises interest rates.
債市出現拋售之際，美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)警告稱，美國央行開始提高利率後，債券收益率可能躍升至更高水平。The sharp rise in the oil price over the past month could threaten Opec’s strategy of squeezing out higher-cost producers, say traders and analysts. Some of the biggest US shale producers, which have slashed costs and improved efficiency, have said they can increase production if prices remain at their current level. That threatens to add more oil to the market, again putting downward pressure on prices.
交易員和分析師們表示，油價在過去一個月大幅上升，可能危及歐佩克排擠成本較高生產商的戰略。美國一些最大的頁岩油生產商已經削減了成本，提高了效率，他們表示，只要油價維持在當前水平，他們可能決定增產。這意味着向市場供應更多石油，再度形成壓低價格的壓力。“The factors supporting the upward momentum cannot be underestimated and could drive prices even higher in the near future,” said Tamas Varga at PVM, an oil brokerage.
“支持油價上行勢頭的因素不可低估，它們可能在不久的將來進一步推高油價，”石油經紀商PVM的塔馬斯•瓦爾加(Tamas Varga)表示。Steven Major, global head of fixed income research at HSBC, said the bond sell-off was driven by investor fatigue, as well as burgeoning signs of inflation and higher issuance of eurozone bonds. “It’s a form of indigestion,” he said. “There just isn’t the same appetite for bonds at ultra-low yields.”
匯豐(HSBC)全球固定收益研究主管斯蒂文•梅傑(Steven Major)表示，此輪債券拋售的驅動因素包括投資者疲憊、初露頭角的通脹跡象，以及歐元區債券發行量加大。“這是消化不良的一種形式，”他說。“對超低收益率債券的胃口不見了。”QE in Europe sent share prices soaring and government borrowing costs to historic lows with yields on many government bonds falling into negative territory. But the recent bond sell-off has thrown that process into reverse.
歐洲的量化寬鬆(QE)導致股價飆升，政府借款成本降至歷史低點，甚至有很多政府債券的收益率跌至負值。但近期債券拋售已逆轉這一進程。Two weeks ago, yields on German 10-year bonds had dropped to a record low of 0.05 per cent while shorter term debt across a wide swath of the eurozone government bond market traded below zero.
兩週前，10年期德國國債的收益率曾降至0.05%的創紀錄低位，而多種期限較短歐元區國家政府債券的收益率低於零。Additional reporting Robin Wigglesworth in New York
羅賓•威格爾斯沃(Robin Wigglesworth)紐約補充報道
