智能手機時代 一切設備以軟件爲核心

Technology fanatics descend every January on Las Vegas for the International CES, a colossal gathering of gadgetry and geekery where some of the world’s largest companies show off their best ideas for the future.

每年1月，科技迷們來到拉斯維加斯參加國際消費者電子產品展(International CES)。世界上最大的一些公司會在這個電子設備狂和極客的大集會上展示他們對未來的最佳暢想。

This year, as in every recent year, the show has been burdened by existential angst, with many tech writers saying they planned to skip an event no longer seen as vital. It has been ages since anything momentous was unveiled at CES.

今年，和過去幾年的每一次那樣，這個展覽因爲是否有存在的必要而受到焦慮感的困擾。許多科技業寫手錶示，他們打算跳過這個已經不被重視的事件。好多年過去了，CES再也沒有推出任何具有里程碑意義的產品。

But the travails of CES are a symptom of a larger transformation in tech. The era dominated by consumer electronics — what most of us call gadgets — is in turmoil.

但是，CES的掙扎在更宏觀的層面上體現了科技領域的變遷。消費電子產品——大多數人稱之爲電子設備——所主導的時代，正在發生劇變。

One reason is that many devices have been superseded by a single, all-powerful tool: the smartphone. Today, just about everything that once required a small, dedicated electronic device — from cameras to portable game consoles to GPS navigators to music players to too many others to name — works better as an app on a phone.

其中一個原因是，許多設備已被一種單一的全能工具所取代，那就是智能手機。如今，幾乎所有曾經需要一臺小型專用設備的東西——相機、便攜式遊戲機、GPS導航儀、音樂播放器等許許多多東西——作爲手機的一個應用程序，能有更好的表現。

At the same time, smartphones have created new categories of capabilities that have eclipsed gadgets as the tech industry’s center of energy and innovation.

與此同時，智能手機還創造了新的功能類別，成了科技產業活力與創新的中心，令過去的設備黯然失色。

I’m talking about photo apps like Instagram, messaging companies like WhatsApp and Snapchat, transportation systems like Uber and Lyft, and Apple Pay, the wireless payment system created by a company best known for its hardware.

這裏說的是Instagram等圖片應用、WhatsApp和Snapchat等即時通訊服務、Uber和Lyft等交通應用，以及以硬件出名的蘋果公司所推出的移動支付系統Apple Pay。

These services, powered by smart software, use our phones’ constant connection to the cloud, and their powers to connect us with one another, to create tech experiences that wouldn’t have been possible with the gadgets of yesteryear. None of them would ever have graced a stage at CES, because none of these things are really gadgets; they’re way more exciting than that.

這些以智能軟件爲載體的服務，利用手機與雲的持續連接，以及讓我們與彼此產生聯繫的力量，創造了昔日的設備所無法帶來的科技體驗。它們當中沒有哪個會在CES的展臺上榮耀登場，因爲它們都不是真正的設備；但它們要激動人心得多。

Here’s the important lesson for consumer electronics companies: The future of tech may not be in flashier, more powerful hardware, but instead in services enabled by clever software. The gadgets matter, but only if they allow for software that can create useful, perhaps groundbreaking services that work across all our gadgets.

對於消費性電子產品公司而言，這裏有個重要的教訓：科技的未來或許不在於更炫酷、更強大的硬件，而在於通過智能軟件來實現的服務。只有能使用軟件——能帶來有用的、或許具有開創性的服務的軟件（而且這些服務能適用於所有設備）——這些設備纔有意義。

“Today, what every customer expects is for their device to be a platform,” said John MacFarlane, the chief executive of the connected-speaker company Sonos, referring to a design practice in which the machine’s intelligence and user interface are built out of flexible software rather than baked into the hardware — thus enabling future improvements through updates.

“現在，每位顧客都希望自己的設備能變成一個平臺，”智能揚聲器公司Sonos的首席執行官約翰·麥克法蘭(John MacFarlane)說。他這裏提到了一種設計原則，即機器的智能和用戶界面都來自靈活的軟件，而非焊入硬件——從而能通過更新來實現未來的改進。

Sonos, which was founded in 2002, was one of the first hardware start-ups to design its products this way.

成立於2002年的Sonos，是最早以這種方式設計產品的硬件初創公司之一。

Sonos’s speakers offer the best example of why a design that is intended to be flexible can be so useful.

Sonos的揚聲器極好地說明了爲何靈活的設計會如此有用。

In 2005, when Sonos sold its first multiroom music system, the units played music stored on a computer, and they had to be controlled by the company’s own touch-screen remote control. But the company believed that anyone who bought its speakers would keep them for a long time, probably a decade or more, so the device would have to be able to live through unpredictable tech changes.

2005年，當Sonos售出第一個多房間音樂系統時，該系統播放的是儲存在一臺電腦上的音樂，而且必須用公司自己的觸屏遙控器來進行控制。但公司認爲，購買其揚聲器的人會把它們保留很長一段時間，或許10年，或許10年以上，所以這個設備必須能夠經受住不可預知的科技變革。

So early in its design process, Sonos decided to make sure the software brains of its devices could be regularly updated. Every few months, the device would check in with the home base and acquire new capabilities.

所以，在設計之初，Sonos就決定要確保其設備的軟件核心能夠定期更新。每隔幾個月，該設備就與總部取得聯繫，並獲得新的功能。

“Did we know there would be an iPhone?” Mr. MacFarlane said. “No, we didn’t know Apple was working on one. And we certainly didn’t foresee tablets. But we made a decision to put the user experience on any device that was close to you, like your phone or P.D.A.”

“我們知道會出現iPhone嗎？”麥克法蘭說。“不，我們並不知道蘋果公司當時在研究iPhone。當然，我們更沒有預見到平板電腦的產生。但是，我們決定把用戶體驗放在與人們關係密切的所有設備之上，比如手機或掌上電腦。”

As a result, in the years since, Sonos’s speakers have gained a range of new powers. They can be controlled by a smartphone app, play music from dozens of streaming music services and connect to a home-automation system, allowing the system to read you the weather report when you step into your kitchen for breakfast. If you bought those 2005-era Sonos speakers, you would have noticed something almost unheard-of in consumer tech, not to mention in life: The older the speakers got, the more they seemed capable of doing.

結果，這些年來，Sonos的揚聲器獲得了一系列新功能。它們既可以通過智能手機應用程序來控制，可以播放數十個流音樂服務上的曲子，還能夠與家庭自動化系統相連接——這樣一來，當你走進廚房吃早餐時，這個系統就能爲你朗讀天氣預報。如果你買的是2005年那個年代的Sonos揚聲器，你就會發現消費科技領域——更不用說日常生活中——前所未聞的東西：揚聲器的使用年代越久，它們似乎就擁有越來越多的功能。

Sonos was a pioneer, but a range of hardware start-ups have embraced a philosophy that prizes flexible software as the heart of gadgetry.

Sonos是一個先鋒，但是一系列硬件領域的創業公司也在其研發的設備當中，融入了重視軟件靈活性的理念。

Nest transformed the previously staid market for home thermostats by creating a model that leverages software connected to the Internet. In the same vein, firms like Dropcam made software-powered cameras, and companies like Fitbit and Jawbone made connected fitness gadgets.

Nest創造的一款設備利用了接入互聯網的軟件，進而轉變了過去古板的家用恆溫器市場。Dropcam這樣的企業也以同樣的思路，製造了用軟件來增強功能的攝像頭，Fitbit和Jawbone這樣的企業則推出了聯網的健康設備。

Benedict Evans, an analyst at the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, noted that a lot of these novel devices might not have been possible without the rise of smartphones. Not only do apps function as the user interface for many of these devices, but the phone industry has also created a supply chain of cheap computing components like processors and motion sensors that are used in many new connected devices.

風險投資公司安德森·霍洛維茨(Andreessen Horowitz)的分析師貝內迪克特·埃文斯(Benedict Evans)提到，如果不是智能手機的興起，很多這樣的新設備或許根本不可能出現。這些設備中，不僅有許多以app作爲用戶界面，而且手機產業也催生了廉價計算元件，如微處理器、動作感應器的供應鏈，許多新出現的聯網設備都用到了這些元件。

“If you sit and count how many devices have been destroyed by the smartphone, you may end up with a dozen categories — but you may also end up with two or three dozen new things that become possible thanks to the smartphone,” said Mr. Evans, the author of “Mobile Is Eating the World,” an examination of how smartphones have roiled the traditional tech business.

埃文斯說，“如果你坐下來算一算有多少種設備被智能手機毀掉了，可能會數出十幾個類別，但可能也會發現二十幾種、三十幾種因爲智能手機纔可能問世的新設備。”埃文斯撰寫的《手機正在吞噬世界》(Mobile Is Eating the World)詳細講述了智能手機是怎樣攪亂傳統科技產業的。

Still, these forward-thinking manufacturers must take pains to keep their devices one step ahead of the advance of smartphones, which are always gaining new, gadget-destroying capabilities. Consider the market for basic fitness trackers — for instance, devices like the Fitbit Zip, a thumb-size, $60 device that hooks to your belt and counts your steps as you move.

不過，這些具有前瞻性的製造商必須要竭盡全力，才能讓自己的設備領先於智能手機的發展，因爲後者一直在添加足以摧毀某種設備的新功能。考慮一下基本款健康追蹤設備的市場，比如像Fitbit Zip這樣的小東西。這款拇指大小、價值60美元的設備扣在腰帶上，能在你運動時幫你計步。

Such a tracker, which connects to a phone to sync its data, might have made sense a few years ago, when people weren’t as hooked to their phones. But as people carry their phones around with them more often — and as our phones become capable of better measurement, including elevation — will people still need a basic activity tracker? After all, today’s top phones, including the iPhone and Samsung’s new devices, have built-in apps that track your motion.

幾年前，買這樣一款需要連接到手機來同步數據的設備或許還說得通，那時候人們還不像現在這樣如此離不開手機。然而隨着人們越來越頻繁地帶着手機到處走，而且手機也具有了更好的測量功能（還能測出海拔），人們還需要基本款的運動追蹤設備嗎？畢竟，今天的高端手機，包括iPhone和三星(Samsung)的新型號，都有內置的app可以記錄用戶的運動。

It’s precisely because of this risk of being displaced by phones that gadget makers ought to think of their hardware as a platform for software.

正是因爲有這種被手機替代的風險，電子設備的製造商才需要將自己的硬件理解爲軟件的載體平臺。

In that world, a basic activity tracker that was rendered superfluous by a phone might acquire new capabilities for some other use. Maybe it could be converted, via software, into an activity tracker for pets? Or perhaps it could become part of a home automation system.

在那樣的情況下，新手機問世後就顯得很多餘的基本款運動追蹤設備，或許還能獲得新的功能，用於別的什麼用途。比如可以通過軟件，轉變爲寵物活動的追蹤器，再比如成爲家用自動化系統的一部分。

As my colleague Molly Wood reported, many companies at CES this week are focusing on plans for integrating their devices into connected systems, rather than simply bringing out flashier hardware.

就像我的同事莫利·伍德(Molly Wood)報道的，本週CES的許多參展公司都在關注的是，如何將自身的設備整合進聯網系統，而不僅僅是推出更酷炫的硬件。

Don’t expect this integration to happen overnight; it could take years before we get to a point where it’s a given that any device you buy will connect to any other. Gadget makers would do well to hasten this era: Their salvation lies in software.

不過，不要以爲這種整合一夜之間就會發生，可能要過很多年，我們才能確信自己買到的任何設備，都能連接到另一臺設備。加快這個時代的到來也有利於設備製造商：軟件纔是它們的救星。

salvation： n.拯救；救世；救助

unpredictable：adj.不可預知的