410億美元 Uber估值飆升的背後
At $41 billion, Uber has become more valuable more quickly than any other start-up we’ve seen in recent years — faster than Facebook FB 2.03% , Google GOOG 0.43% , AMZN 0.50% and CRM 0.29% , according to our analysis of VC-backed start-ups founded since Uber was created in 2009. Earlier this month when the taxi service announced a round of financing that gave it a $41 billion valuation at 5.93 years old, Uber set itself apart. At the same stage, Facebook was valued at about $32 billion, while Google was just over $3 billion.
打車應用服務公司Uber目前估值已經達到410億美元。我們發現這家公司自2009年成立以來，是由風投支持的初創型企業中增值最快的一家，超過了Facebook、谷歌（Google）、亞馬遜（）和雲計算服務供應商。本月早些時候Uber宣佈了新一輪融資消息，公司估值在成立5.93年後達到410億美元，在市場中脫穎而出。在同一階段，Facebook的估值約爲320億美元，谷歌的估值則剛剛超過30億美元。
Uber’s valuation does not guarantee it will be the next long-term superstar. But if the company can use its rapidly rising valuation to accelerate its expansion, it has a real shot at both beating its competitor, Lyft, and growing beyond personal transportation. Further, it can expand it’s services — potentially to delivery, logistics, other adjacent markets. To be sure, Uber is facing an ever increasing amount of challenges, from legal battles with local governments, to bad PR for the way it portrays women, all of which could hamper its growth and damage its brand. Additionally competitors like Lyft are nipping at its heals and more will surely come as the market for smart-phone powered point-to-point transportation expands. Despite these problems, Uber’s lead is so large and its value has grown so quickly, it would have to stumble badly to lose the battle for supremecy in this new space.
但這樣的估值並不能保證Uber成爲下一個持久的超級巨星。但如果該公司能將快速攀升的價值用於提高擴張速度，它就真的有可能擊敗競爭對手Lyft，並將業務延伸到個人交通領域之外。Uber可以進一步將其範圍擴大到快遞、物流以及其他相關市場。當然，Uber面臨的挑戰也與日俱增，比如和地方政府的法律糾紛，再比如涉嫌不尊重女性的糟糕公關，所有這些都可能對其發展和品牌產生不利影響。此外，Lyft等對手正在奮起直追；而且，隨着基於智能手機的點對點（P2P）交通服務市場繼續擴大，必將出現更多競爭者。不過，雖然存在這些問題，但在如此巨大的領先優勢和增速之下，除非Uber犯下大錯誤，纔會在這個新興領域的王者爭奪戰中落敗。This comes amid the development of two important trends. First, among all VC-backed technology start-ups created since 2009, the rate at which their values have risen is three times faster today compared to just a decade ago. This increase in “time to market cap”, the measures how quickly companies increase in value, has become a major advantage for modern startups as they are able to build massive financial war chests at speeds never seen before. With this latest financing Uber has become the time to market cap champ.
伴隨Uber成長的有兩大趨勢。首先，就所有2009年以來成立並且獲得風投支持的科技初創公司來說，其價值上升速度與10年前相比快了三倍。作爲衡量公司價值增速的指標，“市值形成速度（time to market cap）”的提升已經成爲現代初創企業的一項主要優勢，因爲它們可以用前所未有的速度籌集到鉅額資金。最新一輪融資過後，Uber已經在這場速度較量中成爲冠軍。
What’s more, it appears that new markets are being dominated by one company, especially in tech. Uber’s latest valuation is partly driven by how quickly the company is expanding abroad, but it also reflects demand for a growing global market for on-demand transportation, and Uber’s dominance in this category for years to come.
其次，新興的市場看來都由一家公司主導，特別是在科技領域。Uber最新估值提升的部分動力來自該公司在海外的迅速擴張，但這也體現了全球按需交通服務市場的不斷擴張和由此帶來的需求，以及今後幾年Uber在這個領域的統治地位。We like to call Uber a “Category King” — companies that define, develop and dominate new markets. Airbnb is doing that in on-demand rentals. did it in cloud-based CRM. Of the 80 or so $1 billion companies founded since 2000, half are Category Kings. They are more valuable than all the other companies in their categories combined. These firms routinely take more than 70% of the total available market cap of their market.
我們傾向於把Uber稱爲“細分類之王”，即那些定義了一個全新市場，並大力開拓，佔據市場主導地位的公司。Airbnb就在按需租房領域扮演着這樣的角色。在基於雲技術的客戶關係管理服務市場，也是如此。2000年以來成立而且市值達到10億美元的公司有80家左右，其中一半都是“細分類之王”。它們的價值超過了本領域其他公司的價值之和，而且往往佔據所在市場中所有公司總市值的70%以上。Uber is clearly being valued as the king of a new category that stretches way beyond taxi rides. Investors see potential in on-demand delivery from Uber vehicles, for instance. Unless Uber screws up, its competitors, such as Lyft and Sidecar, will fade into the background. If Uber truly proves to be the Category King in a vastly expanding new category, it’s record valuation will seem rational.
顯然，人們在評估Uber的價值時，認爲其所統領的新領域將遠遠超越出租車服務。舉例來說，投資者就看到了Uber車輛的按需遞送的潛力。除非Uber自毀前程，否則Lyft和Sidecar這樣的競爭對手就只能生活在其陰影之中。如果Uber能證明自己在一個大範圍擴張的新領域居於王者之位，該公司創紀錄的估值就應該屬於合理水平。Al Ramadan, Christopher Lochhead and Dave Peterson are co-founding partners at Play Bigger Advisors, a San Francisco-based firm that coaches technology executives to build market-leading companies. Neither the firm or its partners have investments in Uber, Lyft, Google, or .
本文作者艾爾o拉馬丹、克里斯托弗o羅克海德和戴夫o彼得森是Play Bigger Advisors公司聯合創始人。這家總部位於舊金山的諮詢機構致力於指導科技公司高管如何打造市場領先的公司。該公司和這三位合夥人均未向Uber、Lyft、亞馬遜或投資。（財富中文網）
