繼特朗普勝選後勒龐會上臺嗎
This time last year, I wrote that I have a nightmare vision for 2017: President Trump, President Le Pen, President Putin.
去年這個時候，我寫道，我對2017年有一個噩夢般的想象：特朗普總統、勒龐總統，普京總統。
So, after Donald Trump’s victory, the next question is whether Marine Le Pen can indeed capture the French presidency?
因此，唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)獲勝後的下一個問題是，馬琳.勒龐(Marine Le Pen)是否能真能成爲法國總統？
Following this weekend’s centre-right primary, it seems likely that Ms Le Pen will face a run-off in May against either François Fillon or Alain Juppé.
在上週末中右翼陣營初選之後，勒龐看上去可能在明年5月份與弗朗索瓦.菲永(François Fillon)或阿蘭.朱佩(Alain Juppé)進行終極對決。
Both are Hillary Clinton-style establishment figures, who would be ideal opponents for the leader of the far-right.
這兩人都是希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)式的建制派人物，將是極右翼領袖勒龐的理想對手。
The consequences of a victory for the far-right in France would be drastic for both European and world politics.
如果極右翼在法國獲勝，將爲歐洲和世界政治帶來非常嚴重的後果。
A Le Pen presidency could well lead to the collapse of the EU.
勒龐當上總統很可能導致歐盟(EU)的崩潰。
She wants to pull France out of the European single currency and to hold a referendum on France’s EU membership.
她希望讓法國退出歐洲單一貨幣，並就法國是否留在歐盟舉行公投。
Even if Ms Le Pen softened her stance in office, it is hard to see how Angela Merkel’s Germany could work with a nationalist and authoritarian France.
即便勒龐上臺後軟化了自己的立場，也很難設想安格拉.默克爾(Angela Merkel)領導下的德國如何能跟一個民族主義、威權主義的法國攜手合作。
With Germany and France set on radically different paths, Franco-German antagonism would return to the heart of European politics.
隨着德國和法國走上截然不同的道路，法德的對立將重回歐洲政治的中心。
The global implications of a Le Pen victory would also be severe.
勒龐獲勝對全球的影響也將是嚴重的。
Four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council would be occupied either by undemocratic governments (Russia and China), or by democracies led by nationalist rightwing leaders (US and France).
在聯合國(UN)安全理事會(Security Council)的五個常任理事國中，有四個將要麼是非民主國家（俄羅斯和中國），要麼是由民族主義右翼領袖領導的民主國家（美國和法國）。
Under such circumstances, the international legal order could crumble, as might once again became right.
在這種情況下，國際法律秩序可能崩潰，世界秩序可能再次向右轉。
Of course, even post-Brexit and post-Trump, there is nothing inevitable about a Le Pen victory in France.
當然，即便在英國退歐和特朗普上臺之後，也不存在什麼因素決定勒龐必然在法國獲得勝利。
For what it is worth, the opinion polls still show her likely to lose decisively in the second round of the election.
無論有多少參考價值，民意調查仍然表明，她可能會以明顯差距輸掉第二輪選舉。
And although Ms Le Pen has moved to embrace the Trump White House and has been keenly supported by Mr Trump’s alt-right advisers, there are important differences between the Trump and Le Pen phenomenons.
雖然勒龐對特朗普政府表示了極大的歡迎，並且得到特朗普的另類右翼(alt-right)顧問的支持，但特朗普現象和勒龐現象之間存在着重大區別。
Unlike Mr Trump, the National Front has been around for decades and is more of a known quantity to voters.
與特朗普不同的是，國民陣線(National Front)已經存在了幾十年了，在更大程度上已經爲選民們所熟悉了。
France’s bitter memories of the Vichy regime of the 1940s may also mean that the country is better inoculated against far-right politics than the US.
法國對上世紀40年代維希政權的痛苦記憶或許也意味着，比起美國，法國對極右政治更加免疫。
Set against that, however, is the possibility that French voters, who might have feared that a Le Pen presidency would turn their country into an international pariah, may now feel that Mr Trump’s victory has given them permission to vote for the far-right.
然而，與此相反的一種可能性是，曾擔心勒龐把法國變成國際社會賤民的該國選民，現在也許覺得，特朗普當選讓他們獲得了投票支持極右翼的許可證。
The objective conditions for a turn towards authoritarian nationalism are clearly stronger in France than in the US.
法國轉向威權民族主義顯然具備比美國更充分的客觀條件。
France has been subjected to savage terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists.
法國遭到了伊斯蘭極端分子的野蠻恐怖主義襲擊。
There are large, poorly integrated muslim populations in most big cities.
在大多數大城市中，存在着大量未融入當地社會的的穆斯林人口。
Unemployment among the general population is over 10 per cent.
全國總人口的失業率超過10%。
Above all, the political establishment is despised.
最重要的是，政治建制派遭到鄙視。
The approval ratings of President François Hollande recently hit an astonishing low of 4 per cent.
法國總統弗朗索瓦.奧朗德(François Hollande)的支持率最近創下4%的驚人低點。
The political, social, economic and international environments could not be more favourable for Ms Le Pen.
如今的政治、社會、經濟和國際環境對勒龐都簡直不能更有利了。
In recent years, Ms Le Pen has moved to distance herself from her father, Jean-Marie, whose racist views are embarrassingly open.
近年來，勒龐已跟父親讓-馬裏.勒龐(Jean-Marie Le Pen)撇清了干係，後者的種族主義觀點是公開的，讓人感到難堪。
These days, Ms Le Pen’s rhetoric is indeed less inflammatory and dishonest than that of Mr Trump.
近來，勒龐的言論確實沒有像特朗普那樣煽動性十足和不誠實。
But the French far-right leader has had her moments.
但這位法國極右翼領袖也發表過令人瞠目結舌的言論。
She has, for example, compared Muslims praying in France’s streets with the Nazi occupation.
比如，她曾把在法國街頭祈禱的穆斯林與納粹佔領軍相比。
On the other side of the channel, there might even be some in the British government who would quietly welcome the prospect of a far-right victory in France.
在海峽對岸的英國，政府裏甚至可能有些人會暗自希望極右翼在法國取勝。
While the current French government is leading the demands that Britain must pay a heavy price for Brexit, Ms Le Pen has applauded the British decision to quit the EU.
法國現政府帶頭要求英國必須爲退歐付出沉重代價，而勒龐讚揚了英國的退歐決定。
A Le Pen victory might even solve the Brexit problem since there might no longer be an EU left for the UK to leave.
也許勒龐獲勝甚至可能解決掉英國退歐問題，因爲歐盟或許將從這個世界上消失。
Boris Johnson, UK foreign secretary, hailed the opportunity represented by the election of the pro-Brexit Mr Trump, and might sniff similar opportunities in the rise of Ms Le Pen.
英國外交大臣鮑里斯.約翰遜(Boris Johnson)對支持英國退歐的特朗普勝選所代表的機會表示歡呼，他或許也在勒龐的崛起中嗅到了類似的機會。
More sober heads in London, however, must surely realise that the rise of the French far-right cannot ultimately be good news for Britain.
然而，倫敦更多頭腦清醒的人們必須明白，法國極右翼的崛起最終肯定對英國不利。
A National Front victory in France would mean that the forces of authoritarian nationalism would be flourishing across Europe, from Moscow to Warsaw to Budapest and Paris.
國民陣線在法國的勝利將意味着，威權民族主義將在整個歐洲擡頭——從莫斯科到華沙、再到布達佩斯和巴黎。
Under Mr Trump, the US could no longer be relied upon as a stabilising force to push back against political extremism in Europe.
在特朗普領導下，美國再也不能像人們指望的那樣發揮穩定作用、阻止歐洲政治極端主義興起了。
Instead, many in Europe are now looking towards Ms Merkel, who has just announced that she will be running for a fourth term as German chancellor, next year, as the anchor of European stability.
相反，歐洲許多人目前正把目光投向默克爾，希望她能維繫歐洲的穩定。她剛剛宣佈明年將參加競選，如果獲勝，將開始第四個總理任期。
But the challenges facing Ms Merkel are truly daunting.
但是，默克爾面臨的挑戰確實很艱鉅。
She confronts a hostile Russia to the East and a Middle East in flames to the south.
德國東面有敵對的俄羅斯，南面是戰火連綿的中東。
Mr Trump has been openly contemptuous towards Ms Merkel.
特朗普則一直公開對默克爾表示輕蔑。
Within the EU, Germany’s relations with southern Europe have been poisoned by the euro crisis, while its relations with eastern Europe have been soured by the refugee crisis.
在歐盟內部，德國與南歐的關係因歐元危機而惡化，與東歐的關係因難民危機而變壞。
Meanwhile, Britain has voted to leave the bloc.
同時，英國已投票決定離開歐盟。
The election of Ms Le Pen in France could be the final blow to the vision of Europe represented by Ms Merkel, and constructed by generations of European leaders, since the 1950s.
若勒龐在法國當選，可能對於由默克爾代表的、自1950年代以來幾代歐洲領導人構建的歐洲願景構成最後一擊。
