特朗普會不會成爲美國版普京
On a blustery evening, a crowd of thousands gather at a political rally, many eager to explain to me why their country needs a strong leader, is right to take a more aggressive stance on the world stage and should be respected and feared by other nations.
在一個狂風大作的夜晚，數千人聚集在一次政治集會上，很多人迫不及待地向我解釋，他們的國家爲何需要一個強硬的領導人、爲何應該在世界舞臺上採取更具攻擊性的立場、以及爲何應該讓其他國家敬畏。
It’s a scene not unlike those I have covered over the past five years as a correspondent for the Financial Times in Russia. Only this time I have not come to see the adoring fans of Vladimir Putin. I am in Macon, Georgia, and the man we are waiting for is Donald Trump.
這個場景，與過去五年我作爲英國《金融時報》記者在俄羅斯工作時報道過的那些不無相似。只是這一次我看到的不是崇拜弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)的粉絲。我所在的地方是美國喬治亞州梅肯市(Macon)，我們翹首以待的人是唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump) 。
One month into a new job covering the US presidential campaign, I am starting to find that the Trump phenomenon is more understandable when viewed through the lens of a Putin-Trump Venn diagram — or, rather, the Venn diagram of their supporters.
報道美國總統競選的新工作做了一個月後，我開始發現，從普京和特朗普的共同點、或者說從兩人支持者的共同點這個角度來看，特朗普現象更容易理解。
Two weeks ago in Macon at a stadium full of diehard Trump supporters, I met Tal Wollschlaeger, a law student, who declared apropos of nothing and with no knowledge of my background that he wanted to see a US president more Putin.
兩週前，在匯聚於梅肯一個體育館裏的特朗普鐵桿支持者中，我遇見了法律系學生塔爾茠爾施萊格(Tal Wollschlaeger)。在不知道我身份的情況下，他突然向我宣佈，他希望看到美國有一個更像……普京的總統。
“I think Putin is brilliant!” the twenty-something Mr Wollschlaeger told me as two of his friends nodded in agreement. “He’s taking care of business the way he has to. His country loves him. He’s done well for them. He does what he says and he gets the job done.”
“我覺得普京太棒了！”20多歲的沃爾施萊格說，“他按照他必須的方式處理事情。他的國家熱愛他。他領導得很好。他說到做到，能辦成事。”沃爾施萊格說話時，他的兩個朋友在一旁頻頻點頭贊同。
He continued: “We just have to reassert ourselves. We’ve got to the point where Britain and France can’t look to us for advice because we can’t make the first move any more, because really we’re too weak. We need to get our seat back at the table.”
他接着說：“我們真的必須重新強硬起來。我們已經到了這樣一個地步——英國和法國無法指望我們提供建議，因爲我們已不再能率先採取行動，因爲我們實在太軟弱了。我們需要拿回自己的位置。”
At first it seemed like a one-off, a random Putin fan sprouting up like a unicorn in a southern US city nicknamed the Heart of Georgia. But I don’t think Mr Wollschlaeger is an outlier. In Dubuqe, Iowa, a crucial primary state, the Associated Press recently spoke to Duane Ernster, a local Trump supporter who also offered the Putin comparison. “Maybe we need a warrior instead of a politician,” he said. “People compare Mr Trump to Putin. There’s something to be said about the man who takes care of the Russian people.”
一開始，這看上去只是一個獨一無二的普京粉絲，像獨角獸一樣，偶然地出現在一個綽號爲“喬治亞之心”(Heart of Georgia)的美國南部城市。但現在我覺得沃爾施萊格並非獨一無二。在對初選結果至關重要的愛荷華州杜比克市，美聯社(AP)最近採訪了當地一名特朗普的支持者——杜安萠楓斯特(Duane Ernster)，他也把特朗普比作普京。“或許我們需要的是戰士，而不是政客。”他說，“人們把特朗普比作普京。這個把俄羅斯人民照顧得不錯的人，還是有些地方值得稱道的。”
In a Gallup survey last year — a period marked by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the war in Ukraine and western sanctions — Mr Putin ranked as the 10th most admired man in America, beating among others vice-president Joe Biden, the Dalai Lama and the actor George Clooney.
在蓋洛普(Gallup)去年的一次民調中，普京在美國最受崇拜的人物中位列第十，超過了美國副總統喬拜登(Joe Biden)、達賴喇嘛和男星喬治克魯尼(George Clooney)。而俄羅斯吞併克里米亞、烏克蘭戰爭以及西方對俄羅斯施加制裁正是去年的標誌性事件。
To Mr Putin’s admirers in the US, he offers a tantalising view of what it might be like to have a president stymied by neither Congress nor two-term limits — and one who treats the delicate art of diplomacy more like judo than chess. To many of these people, Mr Trump represents the quixotic tsar who will rid Washington of its gridlock, reverse failed foreign policies and end years of perceived economic decline. If he is Trump the Terrible, so much the better.
對於普京在美國的崇拜者來說，他引出了一種誘人的遐想：有一個不受國會和兩屆任期限制的總統會是什麼樣，有一個將微妙的外交藝術當做柔道、而非國際象棋來處理的總統又會是什麼樣？對他們中很多人來說，特朗普代表着唐吉坷德式沙皇，他將使華盛頓擺脫僵局、扭轉美國外交政策的失敗、並終結人們眼中連年的經濟下滑。如果他是壞人版特朗普，那就更好了。
In his campaign, Mr Trump appears to be taking chapters out of Mr Putin’s handbook. There is the creation of a perceived external threat (in Mr Putin’s case, the US and its encroachment into Russia’s sphere of influence; in Mr Trump’s, it is Muslims and illegal immigrants); the salty language; and the stranglehold on national television. Both men are credited with being spontaneous, unpredictable and counter-intuitive, qualities that make it difficult for opponents to outmanoeuvre them.
特朗普的競選似乎從普京那裏學了不少招數。比如樹立一個假想的外部威脅（普京樹立的威脅是美國及其對俄羅斯勢力範圍的侵佔；特朗普樹立的威脅則是穆斯林和非法移民）；粗俗的語言；打壓全國性電視臺。二人都被認爲隨性、難以捉摸、反直覺，這些品質讓他們的對手很難用計謀戰勝他們。
The two men’s ratings appear to defy logic. Mr Putin’s remains strong despite a worsening economy on the back of westerns sanctions, lower oil prices and the plunging rouble. Mr Trump’s support improves the more offensive or outlandish his comments become.
這兩人的支持率似乎不合常理。在西方制裁、油價下跌以及盧布暴跌的背景下，俄羅斯經濟狀況日益惡化，儘管如此，普京的支持率仍然強勁。特朗普的言論越是過火、離奇，他的支持率則越是節節上漲。
The comparisons to Mr Putin seem to suit Mr Trump just fine, perhaps because he knows they suit part of his base. In the past few months, Mr Trump has declared that he would “get along” with Mr Putin in a way that President Barack Obama has not, and he has been one of the few candidates to express his approval of Moscow’s military campaign in Syria. Mr Trump likes to joke that he and the Russian president are “stablemates” because they both appeared (separately) on the same episode of the US news programme 60 Minutes.
被比作普京似乎挺合特朗普的心意，或許是因爲他知道，這樣的比較合乎他的鐵桿支持者心意。過去數月，特朗普宣稱他將以美國總統巴拉克攠巴馬不曾有過的方式與普京“相處”，同時，他還一直是少數幾個表達認可莫斯科在敘利亞軍事行動的候選人之一。特朗普喜歡開玩笑說，他和這位俄羅斯總統是“同廄之馬”，因爲他們曾（分別）出現在美國新聞節目《60分鐘》(60 Minutes)的同一期中。
As for Mr Putin’s impression of Mr Trump? He has yet to comment.
至於普京對特朗普的印象？他目前尚未置評。
