亞洲世紀的戰爭與和平 全球重心東移

In his timely new book, Easternisation, Gideon Rachman articulates a clear and persuasive idea: that recent western exertions in the Middle East, the crises that grab the headlines and consume the energies of world leaders, will be seen in the arc of history as something of a sideshow, a secondary plotline that will ultimately be obscured by the rise of Asia, with its humming factories, inexhaustible innovation and competitive spirit.

吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)在他這本很及時的新書《東方化》(Easternisation)中，闡述了一個明確而具說服力的觀點：西方近年在中東的折騰，一系列佔據新聞頭條和消耗着世界領導人精力的危機，在歷史的弧線上將被視爲一段插曲、一個次要情節，最終將在亞洲崛起的大背景下黯然失色；近年亞洲的特徵是工廠轟鳴、創新不斷和競爭精神高漲。

In his quest to capture this dramatic reorientation of global power — one that is now fully under way — Rachman, the FT’s chief foreign affairs commentator, takes us seamlessly from one Asian capital to the next, and across the world to Washington and London. Along the way, he introduces readers to the key leaders, thinkers and innovators in this overarching drama, weaving their stories into an elaborate, vivid story. We learn from an influential Chinese strategic thinker contemplating Beijing’s global priorities; a Japanese academic who specialises in Asia’s complex history; a wizened Singaporean financier with decades of market experience; an Indian manufacturer striving to compete against south-east Asian competitors; and many others who bring keen insights and rich detail to Rachman’s account.

在他捕捉全球實力戲劇化轉移（目前在全方位展開）的探索中，身爲英國《金融時報》首席外交事務評論員的拉赫曼，絲絲入扣地帶領我們從一個亞洲首都到另一個，並跨越半個地球到達華盛頓和倫敦。一路上，他向讀者介紹了這一主要歷史劇情中的關鍵領導人、思想家和創新者，將他們的故事交織成一場複雜、生動的劇情。我們讀到了很多人的高見，他們包括：一位正在思考北京方面全球戰略重點的有影響力的中國戰略思想家、一位專門研究亞洲錯綜複雜歷史的日本學者、一位擁有數十年市場經驗、久經風霜的新加坡金融家、一位努力與東南亞對手展開競爭的印度製造商，這些人和其他許多人的敏銳洞見和豐富細節在拉赫曼的筆下栩栩如生。

They will also learn from Rachman himself, who brings an impressionistic narrative into sharp focus with his own analysis. His deft use of historical allusion matches his fluency in the contemporary policy debates that reverberate around Asian capitals, and he engages with the ideas of Henry Kissinger, Joseph Nye and other prominent writers on the Asian Century about how to measure the region’s rapid rise.

他們也能從拉赫曼本人學到東西，他用自己的分析給一種印象派的敘述帶來一個清晰焦點。他對歷史典故的靈巧使用，與他對亞洲各國首都當前展開的政策辯論的嫺熟描述相得益彰。他還與亨利•基辛格(Henry Kissinger)、約瑟夫•奈(Joseph Nye)等提到亞洲世紀的著名作者，就如何衡量該地區的快速崛起進行了思想的碰撞。

Written largely before the panic-inducing rise of Donald Trump, the book nevertheless anticipates some of the domestic difficulties that plague America’s quest to respond to these shifting sands. Rachman discusses growing concerns over trade, deepening anxieties about a more assertive and occasionally provocative China, as well as a foreign policy agenda dominated by Russia and the Middle East.

這本書大部分寫在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)令人驚恐地異軍突起之前，儘管如此，該書仍預見了美國的一些國內困難，這些困難困擾着美國應對大格局變化的努力。拉赫曼探討了美國人對自由貿易越來越擔憂；對更爲強勢且偶爾展露挑釁意味的中國不斷加深的焦慮；以及被俄羅斯和中東主導的外交政策議程。

This excellent book has some minor shortcomings. The author focuses perhaps inordinately on the notion of American decline, a worry admittedly shared by many in Asia who are fearful that China will fill the potential power vacuum. Like many around the world, Rachman seems to question whether the US has the strength or stomach to grapple with the coming challenges.

這本優秀的著作有一些小缺點。作者也許格外關注了美國衰落的觀點；應該承認，亞洲許多人都有這一擔憂，他們懼怕中國會填補潛在的實力真空。就像世界各地很多人一樣，拉赫曼似乎在質疑美國是否有實力或意願來迎接撲面而來的挑戰。

History would suggest, however, that we should be careful not to exaggerate American difficulties, and resist the tendency to discount the sometimes hidden qualities of American power, including its national resilience, innovation, and capacity for reinvention, that have animated the last half-century.

然而歷史似乎表明，我們應當小心，不要誇大美國的困難，也不要低估美國實力中有時不顯山露水的質素，包括國家抗壓能力、創新力，以及再造能力，正是這些特點使美國在過去半個世紀生機勃勃。

Concerns over American decline have surfaced in every decade of the postwar era, but they have often been more reflections of international anxieties than clear-eyed assessments of the American strategic situation.

有關美國衰落的擔憂在戰後差不多每10年都會浮現一次，但它們往往在更大程度上反映了國際間的焦慮，而不是對美國戰略形勢的思路清晰的評估。

Policymakers and journalists alike are fond of coining new phrases and concepts to help frame emerging developments on the global stage, and the book’s title is perhaps an example of rhetorical over-reach. I suspect this change in the global tides may be overstated, in part because easternisation is not a coherent or competing ideology. As the book itself reveals, what is happening in countries from Japan and China to India is not an identical but rather a highly individualised developmental process — and one that in many places hews to a western template for modernity, as the rise of Asian democracy, free trade and rule of law attests.

政策制定者們和新聞從業人員一樣，酷愛炮製新詞和新概念，以幫助框定全球舞臺上風起雲涌的新動態，本書的標題可能就是一個言過其實的例子。我懷疑這種全球潮流的改變可能被誇大了，部分是因爲東方化並不是一個自成一體或處於對立面的意識形態。正如本書所展示的那樣，從日本、中國到印度，各國所走的道路並不相同，而都是一個高度個性化的發展過程，而且很多國家在這方面借鑑西方的現代化模板，正如亞洲民主制度、自由貿易和法治的崛起所證明的那樣。

From this perspective, easternisation is perhaps best understood as a gradual shift to the east rather than an orientating narrative emerging from the east, and Rachman is on stronger ground when he describes easternisation as a geographic concept — a global movement to the place where power is playing out and where history will reside.

從這個視角看，東方化也許最好被理解爲向東方逐漸轉移，而非從東方興起一種方向性的敘述；拉赫曼在從地理概念上描繪東方化（一種全球性的轉移，目的地是大國實力博弈，結果將會載入史冊的地方）時更站得住腳。

Rachman’s previous work, Zero-Sum World, helps set the stage for his current book, and many of the themes from the former volume take fuller shape in the latter. Rachman’s flair for rich anecdotes, clever writing, strong analysis and original insight are impressive.

拉赫曼此前的著作《零和世界》幫助他爲這本新書搭建了舞臺，許多來自前一本書的主題，在新書中有了更豐滿的形態。拉赫曼在豐富軼事、流暢文筆、犀利分析和獨到洞察力方面的水平令人折服。

Even with its modest rhetorical embellishments, Easternisation hits its mark, with a wide range of arguments and prognostications that scholars and policymakers must contemplate as we consider the coming Asian century.

即便存在一些次要的措辭瑕疵，《東方化》一書仍切中要點，提出了廣泛的論點和預言，這些都是學者和政策制定者在思索即將來臨的亞洲世紀時必須斟酌的。