英國退歐很有可能成爲現實 Wake up Brexit is looking ever more likely

The British debate about Brexit, at the moment, reminds me of the discussions I heard in the US, late last year, about Donald Trump. Back then the opinion polls said that Mr Trump was well ahead in the race. But the conventional wisdom in Washington was that he would never win the Republican presidential nomination. Everybody told me that, once voters focused on the race, Mr Trump’s lead would crumble.

英國當下圍繞“英國退歐”(Brexit)的爭論，讓我想起了去年晚些時候在美國聽到的關於唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的討論。那時的民意調查顯示，特朗普的支持率遙遙領先。但華盛頓方面普遍認爲，他絕不會贏得共和黨總統候選人提名。所有人都對我說，一旦選民開始專注此次大選，特朗普的領先優勢將化爲烏有。

In Britain today, there is a similar unwillingness among mainstream political analysts to believe the warning signs from the opinion polls. Several recent polls have shown small majorities in favour of the UK leaving Europe when the country holds its referendum on June 23. But most political pundits I speak to still think it is pretty unlikely that Britain will really vote to leave. When it comes to both Mr Trump and Brexit, the political establishments in Washington and London find it hard to believe the public will ultimately make a choice that the establishment regards as self-evidently stupid.

如今在英國，主流政治分析人士同樣不願相信民調發出的警示信號。近期的幾次民調顯示，6月23日舉行公投時，將有佔微弱多數的民衆投票贊成英國退歐。但我交談過的多數政治學者仍認爲，英國真的投票退歐的情況不太可能出現。對於特朗普與英國退歐，華盛頓和倫敦的政治建制派發現很難相信，公衆最終將做出建制派認爲明顯愚蠢的選擇。

However in Britain, as in the US, politics has taken a populist and unpredictable turn. The financial crisis and its aFTermath have undermined faith in the judgment of elites. High levels of immigration and fear of terrorism have increased the temptation to try and pull up the drawbridge and retreat behind national frontiers.

然而，同美國一樣，英國的政治也已經出現了一種難以預測的民粹主義轉向。金融危機及其後果破壞了人們對於精英所做判斷的信任。移民大量涌入、對恐怖主義的擔憂增加了拉起吊橋、退縮至國家邊界之內的誘惑。

Britain’s Leave campaign will put immigration and border controls at the centre of its campaign — and that could be a winning tactic. The polls suggest the public is overwhelmingly sympathetic to the idea that Britain needs to restrict immigration. Prime Minister David Cameron’s attempted renegotiation of the terms of Britain’s membership of the EU was unable to deliver much on this score. The principle of free movement of labour within the EU remains untouched — and the Leave campaign will make sure every voter knows that.

英國的退歐運動將把移民問題與邊界管控問題置於核心——這有可能成爲一項成功的策略。民調顯示，絕大多數民衆都對英國需要限制移民的想法表示贊同。英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)針對英國的歐盟成員國身份所嘗試的重新談判，在這一點上無法滿足民衆的要求。歐盟內部勞動力自由流動的原則仍未被觸動，而退歐運動將確保每位投票者都知道這一點。

Unfortunately, the coalition that was meant to drive the Remain campaign is failing to come together. Pro-Europeans always assumed they would be able to rely on the support of the opposition Labour party, the Liberal Democrats, the mainstream of the Conservative party and most of British business. But the Labour party is now led by Jeremy Corbyn, a closet Brexiteer who will not lift a finger to rally his party behind the pro-EU cause. The Liberal Democrats were virtually wiped out at last year’s general election. And civil war has broken out among the Tories, with several leading figures joining the Leave campaign.

遺憾的是，本應推動留歐運動的聯盟未能組建起來。支持留歐的人士總以爲，他們能依靠自由民主黨、保守黨主流人士、反對黨工黨以及多數英國企業的支持。但工黨目前由傑里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)領導，他是一名不公開的退歐支持者，不會在團結本黨支持留歐方面做出任何努力。在去年的大選中，自由民主黨實際上已經出局。保守黨內部也已爆發內鬥，幾名領袖人物都加入了退歐運動。

Meanwhile big business is being much less vocal than the Remain camp had hoped. A pro-EU letter was signed by just over one-third of the heads of the FTSE 100 — most hung back, either out of conviction or for fear of antagonising shareholders or customers. The City of London is largely in favour of staying inside the EU. But, in the current climate, the support of Goldman Sachs is not necessarily a plus.

與此同時，比起留歐陣營的期待，大企業發出的聲音要少得多。只有略多於三分之一的富時100指數(FTSE 100)公司高管在一封呼籲留歐的公開信上籤了名——多數高管都在猶豫，或是出於信念，或是因爲害怕激怒股東或客戶。倫敦金融城(City of London)基本上都支持留在歐盟。但在目前的狀況下，即便高盛(Goldman Sachs)的支持也不一定會帶來加分。

The Leave campaign also has the advantage of simple slogans that are easy to understand: control our borders, make our own laws, get our money back from Brussels. The Remain campaign’s responses to these demands, by contrast, are complicated. They point out that, if Britain wants to retain full access to the EU single market, it will almost certainly have to accept free movement of people as the price of entry, along with single-market regulations. They explain that, while Britain’s contribution to the EU budget sounds like a big number, it is actually a very small part of overall government spending.

退歐運動還有口號簡單易理解的優勢：控制我們的邊境，制定我們自己的法律，把我們的錢從布魯塞爾拿回來。相比之下，留歐運動人士對這些訴求的迴應則較爲複雜。他們指出，如果英國想要保留進入歐盟單一市場的全部權限，作爲代價，英國幾乎必須接受人員的自由流動，以及單一市場的法規。他們解釋說，儘管英國對歐盟預算的貢獻聽起來數額巨大，這筆錢實際上只是政府總支出的很小一部分。

These are intellectually solid arguments. But they are also unhelpfully convoluted. And in politics, as the saying goes: “If you are explaining, you are losing.” Ominously, early focus groups suggest that, when undecided voters are exposed to the arguments of both sides of the debate, they are more likely to move towards a vote to leave. The polls also show that anti-EU voters are more likely to vote than the pro-EU camp. Meanwhile, Europe is looking like an increasingly tough sell, what with the euro crisis and the refugee one.

從理智上說這些都是有力的論斷。但這些論斷也曲折難懂，於事無補。在政治上，有句話是這麼說的：“如果你在解釋，你就快輸了。”一個不祥的預兆是，早期的焦點小組研究表明，尚未做出決定的選民在瞭解辯論雙方主張後更有可能偏向於投票支持退歐。民意調查也表明，反歐盟選民比親歐盟陣營更有可能參與投票。同時，歐元危機和難民危機讓歐洲的吸引力越來越低。

Faced with these problems, the Remain campaign is left relying to an unnerving extent on the authority of the prime minister. Two general election victories suggest Mr Cameron is a formidable campaigner. But he cannot do it alone. With business and the other political parties so far disappointing, he may have to look abroad for support.

面對這些難題，留歐運動只能在高得令人不安的程度上依賴於首相的權威。兩次大選獲勝表明卡梅倫是一個極爲有力的活動家。但他獨木難支。迄今商界和其他政黨的表現都令人失望，卡梅倫或許不得不尋求海外的支持。

The news that President Barack Obama will visit the UK next month and is likely to endorse the campaign to keep Britain inside the EU has provoked fury from the Vote Leave campaign. Their outrage is telling. The US president is still a popular figure in much of the UK.

美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)下月將訪問英國並有可能公開支持英國留歐運動的新聞，引發了退歐運動人士的憤怒。這些人的憤怒說明了一些問題——美國總統在英國很多地方依然是一個受歡迎的人物。

What is more, the Leave campaign has always argued there is a big world beyond Europe that is just waiting to embrace Britain once it leaves the EU. Nobody is better placed than the US president to gently puncture that idea. In the weeks following his visit, Downing Street should encourage other foreign leaders — from Beijing to Vatican City — to make their hostility to Brexit known.

此外，退歐運動總是主張，在歐洲之外，還有一個廣闊的世界等着在英國退出歐盟的那一刻擁抱英國。要輕輕地挫傷這個想法，沒有比美國總統更好的人選了。在美國總統訪英之後的幾個星期，唐寧街應該鼓勵從北京到梵蒂岡等地的其他外國領導人讓英國人瞭解到他們對英國退歐的反對。

Many foreign leaders will hesitate to intervene in an internal British debate. Some may have been lulled into believing Brexit is highly unlikely, anyway. Like the British political elite, they need to be disabused of that comforting notion — and fast.

許多外國領導人將對干預英國國內討論感到遲疑。而且有些人可能已經產生了英國退歐極不可能發生的錯覺。就像英國政治精英一樣，他們應該打消這種提供了虛假安慰的觀念——而且動作要快。