低調謀發展 中國將主宰世界能源格局

The starting point for anyone wanting to understand how the world’s energy markets will develop over the next 20 years must be China. Companies, bankers, investors and those of us who try to follow the industry will have to shift our attention away from local circumstances in Europe or the US. What happens in both continents is interesting, but on the world scale it pales into insignificance. Even a very radical change in the European market — a real carbon price or a single common energy policy, or indeed the development of French and German shale gas — would be as nothing compared to the transformation that is coming, as China becomes the dominant force in every part of the energy business.

要把握世界能源市場今後20年的發展趨勢，必須以中國爲出發點。企業、銀行家、投資者，還有其他任何密切關注能源行業的人士，必須把注意力從歐洲或美國本地的形勢轉移開。這兩個大陸發生的事情確實值得關注，但放在全球層面上就沒那麼重要了。即便歐洲市場上出現了根本性的變革，比如確定了碳價格或實行了單一能源政策，或者是法國和德國的頁岩氣開發取得了實質性進展，與一個即將到來的重大變化——中國將成爲能源產業各領域的主導力量——相比，它們就都不值一提。

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Consider a few facts and projections. The facts are taken from the BP Statistical Review, while the projections are from the International Energy Agency annual outlook and reflect the general consensus of private sector forecasters

我們來看一些事實和預測。這些事實摘自英國石油公司(BP)的《世界能源統計年鑑》(BP Statistical Review of World Energy)，而預測則來自國際能源機構(IEA)的年度展望報告，它們反映了私營部門預測人員的普遍共識。

In the last decade, Chinese oil use has almost doubled. Gas consumption has risen fivefold and electricity production is up by factor of 9. Total energy demand in China is up 60 per cent in a decade and 300 per cent since 1990. China alone now accounts for 22 per cent of global energy every day. And that is just the beginning.

上個十年裏，中國的石油消耗量幾乎翻了一番，天然氣消耗量增長了5倍，發電量則增長9倍。在十年的時間裏，中國的能源總需求增長了60%。如果從1990年算起，總需求則增長了三倍。目前中國的能源日消耗量佔全球的22%，而這還只是開始。

The projections for the next 20 years suggest another surge, with oil demand set to double again, gas use to more than double and total energy consumption to rise by 70 per cent even allowing for an optimistic view of gains in energy efficiency.

在針對今後20年的預測中，我們將又一次看到中國需求的激增。中國對石油的需求將再次翻番，天然氣消耗量將增加不止一倍。即使對能源使用效率的提升持樂觀看法，今後20年中國能源消耗總量也將增長70%。

Of course, 20 year projections are not meant to be taken as precise forecasts. Chinese data is far from perfect and the outlook is based on a number of assumptions about public policy decisions. The detail matters less than the broad direction which the numbers describe. The overall story is that Chinese energy consumption will shape every part of the energy business — from oil and gas to nuclear and renewables.

當然，時間跨度長達20年的預測不可能十分精確。中國的數據還很不完善，而且以上預測是基於對公共決策的一系列假定得出的。但是詳細的數據沒有這些數據所反映出的總體趨勢重要。這個總趨勢就是：從石油和天然氣，到核能和可再生能源，中國的能源消費將決定全球能源產業各個領域的格局。

Even if you believe, as I do, that China will inevitably experience something close to a normal economic cycle with periods of low growth, and even recessions, the direction of change remains a valid projection of the future. Indeed, there is a case for saying that the figures set out above understate the possible growth in demand. As an excellent article by Robert Wilson on the website Energy Collective makes clear, most of China’s current energy demand growth is driven by the needs of industry.

即使你和我一樣，相信中國將不可避免地經歷某種類似正常經濟週期的現象，會出現經濟增長放緩甚至是衰退的時期，以上變化趨勢依然是對未來的有效預測。事實上，有理由認爲上述數據低估了中國需求的可能增長。正如羅伯特•威爾遜(Robert Wilson)在Energy Collective網站發表的一篇精彩文章所闡明的，中國當下能源需求的增長主要是由工業需求帶動的。

The Chinese economy is clearly still in a phase of production growth, helped on by the self-defeating decisions of the EU to increase its own energy costs and therefore to encourage the migration of economic activity to lower cost areas. Global industrial production is growing but the geographic location of that production is changing. Such migration does nothing to reduce net emissions of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases.

中國經濟顯然仍處於生產增長的階段。與此同時，歐盟卻決定提高自己的能源成本，這一自討苦吃的決策促使經濟活動轉移到成本較低的地區，這對中國生產的增長起到了助推。全球工業生產正在增長，但生產活動的地理位置卻在發生改變。這種遷移對降低二氧化碳或其他溫室氣體的淨排放量沒有任何作用。

But the production growth phase may not continue to be the dominant force in driving energy demand in China. That growth could be supplemented over time by increases in personal consumption. As Wilson points out, Chinese per capita use of energy for travel and in the home is still a fraction of the levels in Europe or the US. The shift is beginning, but there is a long way to go.

然而，中國處於生產增長階段這一因素可能不會繼續成爲推動中國能源需求增長的主導力量。隨着時間推移，個人消費的增長可能也將幫助推動中國能源需求增長。正如威爾遜所指出的，相對歐美來說，無論是出外旅遊還是在家，中國人均能源消耗量都處於極低水平。這種現象開始發生改變，不過還有很長的路要走。

The figures above may also understate China’s share of global energy demand if the European economy remains stagnant and the Middle East remains in chaos.

此外，如果歐洲經濟保持停滯，中東仍然一片混亂，以上數據還有可能低估中國佔全球能源需求的比重。

Two issues arise from all this. First, what choices will the Chinese make on the key decisions that will determine how the future global energy markets evolve? Will they shift away from coal in the interests of clean air in the cities — a topic of live political debate? Will the Chinese tolerate ever-increasing imports and the potential vulnerabilities that brings? Will they pour money into scientific research on renewables in the hope of maintaining a higher level of energy self-sufficiency? All these are public policy decisions, but given the scale of China’s role they will shape demand, and therefore global prices, for all forms of energy.

所有這一切引發了兩個問題。首先，在一些將決定未來全球能源市場動向的關鍵決策上，中國會做出什麼樣的選擇？中國會不會爲了讓城市擁有乾淨的空氣，放棄使用煤炭（這是一個引發激烈政治爭論的話題）？中國能否容忍進口的不斷增長，以及由此帶來的潛在脆弱性？中國會不會爲了維持較高的能源自給率，在可再生能源的科研上投入重資？所有這些都是中國自己的公共決策，然而考慮到中國影響力的大小，這些決策將決定所有形式的能源的需求，從而影響它們的國際定價。

The second broad issue is for the corporate sector. China will dominate global energy demand growth for the next two decades. Are the majors (or indeed smaller) energy companies prepared for this, or are they happy to remain in the shrinking markets of the US and Europe where total oil demand on the IEA’s projections is set to continue falling?

第二大問題是企業部門的問題。今後20年，中國將主導全球能源需求的增長。另一方面，根據國際能源機構的預測，歐美能源市場的石油總需求將持續降低。對這種變化趨勢，那些大能源企業（或許事實上應該是那些規模較小的能源企業）是否已做好準備，還是將樂於留在不斷萎縮的歐美市場？

Most corporates see the opportunity, but few have moved beyond the most limited initial steps. Looking at the most recent annual reports of the oil and gas majors, the shares of total assets and revenue coming from Asia is minimal and far below the region’s weighting in current — let alone future — demand. Few of the companies have many visible Asian-born leaders.

多數企業都看到了由此帶來的機遇，然而除了極爲有限的初步舉措之外，採取進一步措施的企業寥寥無幾。從石油和天然氣巨頭最近的年度報告就能看到，在它們的總資產和營收中，亞洲市場所佔份額極小，遠低於亞洲在當前全球需求中所佔的比重——更不用說將來的需求了。此外，沒有幾家企業擁有許多明顯出生在亞洲的領導人。

Taking a long term view, which after all is what the biggest companies are supposed to do, you can’t help feeling that there is a great prize to be won by becoming China’s strategic partner: guaranteeing supplies from across the world market. In a world beyond colonialism that is the function the great multinationals are built to perform.

大企業應該着眼於長遠，而從長遠來看，你會不由得想到，成爲中國的戰略合作伙伴——確保來自全球市場的供應——將得到巨大實惠。在這個沒有了殖民主義的時代，這正是大型跨國公司所應履行的職能。

Perhaps it is no coincidence then to find one of the majors sponsoring the brilliant and highly recommended new exhibition of treasures from the Ming Dynasty at the British Museum in London.

倫敦大英博物館(British Museum)新近舉辦的美奐美崙、備受推崇的中國明朝珍寶展，贊助商就是這樣一家大型能源公司，這或許並非偶然。