2050世界展望:中國成爲世界最大經濟體?
It's barely 2011 but Karen Ward at HSBC is looking ahead what the world will look like in the middle of the century. By 2050, China is predicted to have overtaken the U.S. to become the world's largest economy. India is forecast to be in third place, followed by Japan. Nineteen of the top 30 will be today's 'emerging economies,' which will collectively be bigger than the developed world。
How does Europe look？Ms. Ward puts Germany in fifth place, and on its heels in sixth, the U.K., both one slot lower than today. France is down three slots in ninth, under Brazil and Mexico. Italy is down four places in 11th, below Canada and just ahead of Turkey. Spain is down two places, to 14th, below South Korea and just ahead of Russia。
China's annual economic output by 2050 is forecast to reach $24.6 trillion (in 2000 dollars)， the U.S. $22.3 trillion, India $8.2 trillion, Japan $6.4 trillion, Germany $3.7 trillion and the U.K. $3.6 trillion. France is a $2.8 trillion economy and Italy a $2.2 trillion one。
Why does the U.K. do relatively well？A good part of the answer is demographics, a factor that helps the U.S. too. By 2050, the U.K. will have 72 million people, compared with Germany's 71 million and France's 68 million, the forecast suggests。
She adds: 'The small-population, ageing, rich economies in Europe are the big losers. Switzerland and the Netherlands slip down the grid significantly, and Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway and Denmark drop out of our Top 30 altogether.'
Of course, that doesn't make them poor. The Netherlands, down eight places as the world's 23rd economy, is predicted to have per capita income of $46,000 (in 2000 dollars)， compared with just over $26,000 today. Switzerland's 9 million people are forecast to enjoy an average income of $84,000, compared with $39,000 today. China's 1.4 billion people are forecast to have income of $17,000 per head, compared with $2,400.
The calculations assume continuing open borders and no major wars or natural disasters. They are based on three determinants, drawing from the work of Harvard University's Robert Barro: the starting level of per capita income; human capital, which relates to levels of education, health and fertility; and economic governance, which refers to the variables such as the degree of monetary stability, property rights, democracy, the rule of law and government size。眼下才剛剛邁入2011年，匯豐銀行(HSBC)的高級全球經濟學家沃德(Karen Ward)就開始展望本世紀中葉的世界將是怎樣一種情形。在沃德的預測中，到2050年時，中國將取代美國，成爲世界上最大的經濟體。印度將位列第三，日本緊隨其後。屆時前30大經濟體中將有19個是今天的“新興經濟體”，它們的經濟規模總和將超過發達國家世界。 歐洲的情況將會如何？沃德預測德國將位居第五，英國則佔據第六的位置，兩個國家的排名均比目前低一位。法國下滑三位，來到第九，位於巴西和墨西哥之後。意大利下滑四位，名列第11，落後於加拿大，僅在土耳其之前。西班牙滑落兩位，至第14，落後於韓國，僅僅領先於俄羅斯。
預計到2050年時中國經濟的年產值將達到24.6萬億美元(以2000年時的美元匯率計算)，美國爲22.3萬億美元，印度8.2萬億美元，日本6.4萬億美元，德國和英國分別爲3.7萬億和3.6萬億美元。法國和意大利的經濟規模分別將達到2.8萬億和2.2萬億美元。
爲什麼英國的表現相對不錯呢？很大一部分答案來自人口統計學，這一因素也幫助了美國。沃德的預測顯示，到2050年時，英國將擁有7200萬人口，相比之下德國和法國的人口數爲7100萬和6800萬。
她還說，那些人口數量少、老齡化且富裕的歐洲經濟體是排名下降比較大的。瑞士和荷蘭的排位大幅下滑，而瑞典、比利時、奧地利、挪威和丹麥甚至統統跌出了所預測的前30名之外。
當然，這並沒有使它們變窮。荷蘭雖然下滑八位，在世界經濟體中排名第23，但其人均收入預計將達到46,000美元(以2000年時的美元匯率計算)，目前荷蘭的人均收入僅略高於26,000美元。擁有900萬人口的瑞士的人均收入預計將達到84,000美元，目前爲39,000美元。預計中國14億人口的人均收入將從目前的2,400美元增至17,000美元。
這些計算依據的前提是假定邊界持續開放、不爆發大的戰爭或是出現嚴重自然災害。上述計算以三個決定因素爲基礎，這些因素來源於哈佛大學羅伯特·巴羅(Robert Barro)的著作：人均收入的起始水平；人力資本，這涉及教育、健康及繁育水平；經濟治理，這是指一些可變因素，如金融體系的穩定性程度、產權、民主、法制以及政府規模。據《華爾街日報》
