中國工業利潤增長仍嚴重依賴刺激政策
Profits at Chinese industrial companies surged last month, fuelled by Rising commodity prices and a buoyant real estate market, but analysts warn that profit growth remains heavily reliant on government stimulus and smokestack industries.
受大宗商品價格上漲以及房地產市場堅挺推動，上月中國工業企業利潤出現飆升，但分析師們警告稱，這種利潤增長仍然嚴重依賴於政府刺激政策和煙囪產業。
Industrial profits increased 14.5 per cent in November from a year earlier, China’s statistics bureau said yesterday, the second-fastest monthly growth since June 2014. But the agency cautioned that growth was “overly reliant” on a price rebound in oil refining, steel and other raw materials. Coal mining profits rose 156 per cent in January through to November from a year earlier.
中國國家統計局昨天表示，11月中國工業企業利潤同比增長14.5%，這是自2014年6月以來第二高的增速。但是該機構告誡稱，這一增長“過於依賴”石油精煉、鋼鐵和其他原材料價格反彈。今年1至11月，煤炭開採利潤同比增長156%。
Strong credit growth, especially mortgages loans, has fed a rally in property prices this year. Fiscal spending on infrastructure has also stoked demand for basic commodities. The price recovery has revived industrial profits, which were in decline for seven straight months through to last December.
強勁的信貸增長（特別是抵押貸款）推動了今年房地產價格上漲。在基礎設施方面的財政支出也刺激了對基本大宗商品的需求。價格復甦帶來了工業企業利潤回升，截至去年12月工業企業利潤曾連續7個月下滑。
“We have to look at whether there is an overflow effect [from the commodities sector]. It’s like a heating stove. How effective it is depends not just on whether it gets hot, but also whether it can warm the surrounding area,” said Hu Yanhong, an analyst at Yingda Securities Research Institute in Shenzhen.
“我們不得不看看其中是否存在（來自大宗商品行業的）溢出效應。這就像是一個加熱爐。它的有效性不僅取決於爐子是否變熱了，還取決於它能否使周圍變得溫暖起來，”位於深圳的英大證券研究所(Yingda Securities Research Institute)分析師胡研宏表示。
Rising commodity prices also have pulled China out of deflation, which was worsening the country’s heavy corporate debt burden and prompting businesses to postpone spending. The producer price index was in negative territory for more than four consecutive years through to August, but producer price inflation hit a nearly five-year high of 3.3 per cent in November.
大宗商品價格上漲也把中國拉出通縮困境，通縮壓力曾加重中國沉重的企業債務負擔並促使企業延緩支出。截至今年8月，生產者價格指數(PPI)連續4年以上處於負增長，但11月中國PPI上漲3.3%，觸及近5年來的高點。
However, commodity price inflation is disrupting the government’s “supply-side reform” efforts focused on eliminating excess manufacturing capacity in sectors such as coal and steel. China’s cabinet has reprimanded the vice-governors of Hebei and Jiangsu provinces for allowing local enterprises to illegally produce steel, the official Xinhua news agency reported yesterday.
然而，大宗商品價格上漲正在破壞政府的“供給側改革”努力——這些努力聚焦於消除煤炭和鋼鐵等行業的過剩產能。據官方的新華社昨天報道，因爲河北省和江蘇省允許本地企業非法生產鋼鐵，中央政府處分了這兩個省的副省長。
Analysts warn that a frothy property market and commodity inflation are not strong foundations for corporate profit growth. The government has imposed purchase and lending restrictions in recent months to cool the property market, amid fears of a bubble and rising anger at unaffordable housing. House price growth slowed in November, suggesting those measures are starting to have an effect.
分析師警告稱，房地產市場泡沫和大宗商品通脹並不是企業利潤增長的堅實基礎。最近幾個月，由於擔心房地產泡沫和人們對房價難以承受的憤怒加深，中國政府對購房和房貸出臺限制措施，以此給房地產市場降溫。11月住宅價格增速放緩，似乎表明這些措施已開始奏效。
“We are conservative about the longer term profit outlook, as we do not see signs of a recovery in aggregate demand given a cooling property market and high corporate leverage,” wrote Nomura analysts led by chief China economist Yang Zhao.
“考慮到房地產市場降溫以及企業槓桿率高企，我們沒有看到總需求復甦的跡象，因此我們對於較長期利潤前景持保守態度，”以中國區首席經濟學家趙楊爲首的野村證券(Nomura)分析師們寫道。
Mr Zhao also noted that yesterday’s data suggest an “unhealthy” profit distribution. Year-to-date profit growth at state-owned enterprises accelerated by 3.4 percentage points in November, while growth at private companies decelerated by 0.7 percentage points. State-owned companies dominate oil refining.
趙楊還提到，昨天公佈的數據表明利潤分配“不健康”。1至11月國有控股企業利潤增長較1至10月加快了3.4個百分點，而同期私營企業利潤增長減緩了0.7個百分點。國有企業主導着煉油行業。
