全球企業利潤增長將大幅走低

The rise of emerging market companies will sharply reduce global corporate profit growth, hurting investors but benefiting consumers, according to analysis of 30,000 companies by the McKinsey Global Institute.

據麥肯錫全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)對3萬家公司的分析，新興市場企業的崛起將大幅降低全球企業利潤增長，這對投資者不利，但消費者將從中受益。

Global corporate net income rose fivefold between 1980 and 2013, outstripping growth in global gross domestic product by 70 per cent, McKinsey said, pushing corporate profits from 7.6 per cent of world GDP to 9.8 per cent. In the US the ratio of corporate profits to national income is now at its highest level since 1929, some 11.6 per cent, double the level of 1990.

麥肯錫表示，1980年到2013年間，全球企業淨收入增長了5倍，比全球國內生產總值(GDP)增長超出70%。這將企業利潤從佔全球GDP的7.6%推升到9.8%。在美國，企業利潤佔國民收入約11.6%，達到1929年以來最高水平，是1990年水平的兩倍。

However, the institute believes this will ultimately prove to be the peak, with forces such as the rise of emerging market corporates, technology and rising labour costs likely to slow corporate profit growth to 1 per cent a year over the next decade, a fifth of the average rate over the past 35 years.

但麥肯錫認爲，事實將最終證明這已是全球企業利潤的巔峯。受新興市場企業崛起、科技進步，以及勞動力成本上升等因素影響，未來十年企業利潤增長很可能會降到一年增長1%，爲過去35年平均增長率的五分之一。

As a result, corporate profits are likely to shrink back to 7.9 per cent of global GDP by 2025.

這樣一來，至2025年企業利潤有可能收縮至全球GDP的7.9%。

“Our research shows the extent of the (predominantly western) corporations’ unprecedented bull run over the last 30 years. But there are indications of a very significant change in the nature of global competition and the economic environment,” said Richard Dobbs, a director of the McKinsey Global Institute.

麥肯錫全球研究所的理查德多布斯(Richard Dobbs)表示：“我們的研究顯示，過去30年（以西方爲主的）全球企業的繁榮達到了前所未有的程度。但也有跡象顯示，全球競爭的性質以及經濟環境都出現了重大轉變。”

Key to this view is the rise of emerging market companies which, typically, put less onus on short-term profit than their western rivals, McKinsey argues.

麥肯錫認爲，這一觀點的關鍵在於新興市場企業的崛起，通常情況下，這類企業實現短期利潤的責任要小於它們的西方對手。

“Emerging market players, who by 2025 will represent 45 per cent of the Fortune 500, are playing by radically different rules and, in many cases, accept a 25-50 per cent lower return than their western peers,” added Mr Dobbs.

多布斯還說：“至2025年，新興市場企業將佔到《財富》(Fortune)500強企業中的45%。它們的遊戲規則與西方企業截然不同，而且在許多情況下，它們接受比西方同行低25%-50%的回報。”

The research suggests that EM companies accounted for a record 32 per cent of the $7.2tn pool of global net post-tax operating profits in 2013, with China (14 per cent) leading the way. This figure rises to 39 per cent, if the likes of South Korea and Hong Kong, which McKinsey classes as advanced, are included.

該研究顯示，2013年全球稅後淨營業利潤爲7.2萬億美元，新興市場企業創紀錄的佔到了32%，中國處於領先地位，佔比14%。麥肯錫將韓國和香港等地區列入發達經濟體，如果加入這些地區，該數據將升至39%。

In the past decade, the 50 largest EM companies have made their presence felt globally, doubling their share of revenue from overseas activity to 40 per cent, even as their domestic markets have expanded rapidly.

在過去十年裏，前五十大新興市場公司已將它們的影響力擴散至全球，在國內市場迅速擴大的同時，還將海外業務在營收中佔的比重提高了一倍至40%。

However, they tend to have different structures, and therefore goals, than their western rivals.

但與西方對手相比，它們往往有着不同的組織結構，因而目標也就不同。

In North America and Japan, around three-quarters of revenues are generated by widely held public companies. However, China and India are dominated by government-owned companies, accounting for 58 per cent and 38 per cent of revenues respectively (see the first chart).

在北美和日本，大約有四分之三的企業收入是由股權分散型上市公司創造的。中國和印度的企業營收則爲國企主導，中國國企營收佔總營收58%，印度國企爲38%（見第一張圖表）。

“Roughly half of the world’s largest state-owned enterprises are in China, and another quarter are in other emerging economies,” said Mr Dobbs.

多布斯說：“全球大型國有企業大約有一半在中國，還有四分之一分佈在其他新興經濟體。”

He argued that these SOEs’ objectives may be national priorities such as boosting employment, ensuring food security or securing natural resources, rather than maximising profits, as is prevalent in the west.

他認爲這些國企的目標可能是一些國家優先事項，如增加就業、確保糧食安全以及獲取自然資源，而不是西方流行的利潤最大化。

Likewise, most emerging markets also have a high preponderance of family-owned companies. McKinsey argues that companies with a controlling shareholder have the freedom to take a long-term view and invest to build market share, without undue pressure to meet quarterly profit targets.

同樣，家族企業在大多數新興市場也佔了很高比例。麥肯錫認爲，有一個控股股東的公司可以自由地從長遠考慮，投資擴大市場份額，而無需揹負過多壓力去滿足季度盈利目標。

As the first chart shows, family-owned companies are also commonplace in western Europe, but McKinsey says controlling shareholders in, say, China tend to have stakes twice as large as those in western Europe, facilitating “a more aggressive pursuit of growth”.

如第一張圖表所示，家族企業在西歐也很普遍，但麥肯錫表示在中國等新興市場，家族企業控股股東的股份往往達到西歐的兩倍，促使企業“更積極追求增長”。

The upshot, it says, is that widely held, predominantly western, companies tend to have higher profit margins. Yet EM companies are able to grow faster by reinvesting larger sums in fixed assets; between 1999 and 2008, EM companies returned only 39 per cent of their earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends, compared with 80 per cent in the developed world.

麥肯錫表示，其結果是股權分散型公司（主要在西方）往往有較高的利潤率。但新興市場企業能夠通過對固定資產進行數額較大的再投資，從而得到更快增長。1999年到2008年期間，新興市場企業以分紅形式回報給股東的部分僅佔盈利的39%，發達國家則爲80%。

This allowed publicly listed EM companies to invest $6tn in fixed assets in industries ranging from resources extraction to utilities and capital goods between 2000 and 2013, McKinsey said.

麥肯錫表示，因而新興市場上市公司在2000年到2013年間的固定資產投資高達6萬億美元，所投資領域包括資源開採、公用設施和資本貨物等。

These differences are apparent in the second chart. EM companies tend to have a lower return on invested capital than western ones. Moreover, this gap is widening, with EM companies sporting slower growth in ROIC since 2000, with this measure falling in China.

這些差異從第二張圖表可明顯看出。新興市場企業投入資本的回報率往往低於西方公司，而且這種差距正日益拉大。自2000年以來，新興市場企業資本回報率(ROIC)增長放緩，中國的這一指標則在持續下降。

Operating profit margins have also grown fastest in the west, with margins declining in both Latin America and China, where they fell by 5.6 percentage points between 2000 and 2013.

西方企業的營業利潤率也是增長最快的，拉丁美洲和中國的利潤率則在不斷下降，在2000年到2013年間下降了5.6個百分點。

Yet growth in turnover has been far faster in the emerging world; 77.3 per cent in China, 44.5 per cent in Latin America and 40.5 per cent in India and Southeast Asia, compared with around 20 per cent in North America and western Europe.

但新興世界的企業營業額增長速度要遠大於西方，相比北美和西歐的20%左右，中國爲77.3%，拉丁美洲爲44.5%，印度和東南亞是40.5%。

This growth differential has been most noticeable in capital-intensive industries, such as steel and chemicals.

這一增長差異在鋼鐵、化學品等資本密集型產業最爲顯著。

One might think that as these EM companies attain ever higher market share, they might start to behave more like western companies in terms of maximising profits.

有人可能會認爲，隨着新興市場企業獲得的市場份額越來越大，在追求利潤最大化方面，它們的行爲可能會開始越來越像西方企業。

However, Mr Dobbs believes this will not be the case. He says return on invested capital in China, India and Latin America has actually fallen since peaking in 2006. This has pushed these areas’ ROIC down towards levels in Japan and South Korea, two of the first Asian countries to industrialise, and which still show no signs of switching to more western-type corporate behaviour.

但多布斯不這麼認爲。他表示中國、印度和拉丁美洲的資本回報率在2006年已經見頂，此後實際上在下降，令這些地區的投資回報率降到更加接近於日本和韓國的水平。日韓兩國是第一批實現工業化的亞洲國家，尚未有跡象顯示兩國企業的行爲變得更像西方風格。

As a result, McKinsey argues that these “more numerous, formidable and more global” EM companies tend to destroy more value for incumbents than they create for themselves. Thus, it says their continued expansion will push down global corporate profits in the coming decade.

麥肯錫認爲，這些“數量更多、更令人生畏和更具全球性”的新興市場企業對現有企業價值的破壞，往往要大於它們爲自己創造的價值。因此麥肯錫表示未來十年，新興市場企業的持續擴張將對全球企業利潤構成下行壓力。

This effect will be augmented by the ongoing expansion of technology companies, which McKinsey believes will continue to disrupt longstanding business models by creating platforms that drive marginal costs to almost zero. In the process this will “divert huge amount of industry value to consumer surplus”.

高科技企業的不斷髮展將進一步加劇這種效應，麥肯錫認爲高科技企業創造的平臺把邊際成本降低到幾乎爲零，從而繼續顛覆長期商業模式。這一過程將“把工業價值大量轉化爲消費者盈餘”。

Skype, for example, saved consumers 37bn in international phone charges in 2013 alone, McKinsey calculates.

以Skype爲例，據麥肯錫估算，僅2013年Skype就爲消費者節省了370億英鎊的國際電話費。

Similarly, companies’ costs have been pushed lower by 1.2bn people, most of them lowly paid EM workers, being added to the global labour pool between 1980 and 2010.

1980年到2010年之間全球勞動力大軍增加了12億人，其中大多爲低薪的新興市場工人，這些新增勞動力同樣降低了企業成本。

With this process now largely complete, McKinsey believes a “global war for talent” will heat up, raising costs and allowing labour’s share of global GDP, which has fallen sharply since 1980, to recover.

鑑於該過程現已基本完成，麥肯錫認爲“全球人才爭奪戰”將升溫，這將提高企業成本，並使勞動力佔全球GDP的比例出現回升——該比例自1980年以來大幅下滑。

It concludes by arguing that consumers, as well as labour, will be the beneficiaries from the resulting pullback in corporate profits, with investors the losers.

麥肯錫最後總結道，消費者以及勞動者將成爲企業利潤放緩的受益者，而投資者將成爲輸家。