中國能否承受未富先老 Can China afford to grow old before it gets rich
To mark the Chinese New Year, Nanyang Business School invited a panel of five experienced business men and women to its CEO Breakfast Series to speak about their experience of doing business in China and discuss the challenges this brings.
爲慶祝中國農曆新年，新加坡南洋商學院(Nanyang Business School)邀請5位經驗豐富的商界人士出席其CEO早餐系列活動，講述他們在華做生意的經歷並討論由此帶來的挑戰。
Hosted in the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore, the series brings together current graduate students and industry leaders to share insights on current topics and trends. During the first session of the year, five panellists who volunteered insights into the business environment in China and the challenges its economy faces.
在新加坡浮爾頓酒店(Fullerton Hotel)舉辦的CEO早餐系列活動讓應屆畢業生和行業領袖能夠共同分享對當前熱點和趨勢的看法。在今年首場早餐會，5位專家自願分享他們對中國商業環境及中國經濟面臨的挑戰的看法。
Despite the early hours, the panel featuring Kevin Lu, partner and chief executive of Partners Group; Berenike Ullmann, vice-president of consumer market knowledge at Procter and Gamble Asia; Jeffrey Hardee, Singapore country manager at Caterpillar Asia; Patrick Cherrier, chief executive of Essilor International; and Kok Poh June, deputy chief executive of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City Investment and Development.
儘管是早上時間，但討論會成員有瑞士合衆集團(Partners Group)新加坡公司首席執行官及合夥人陸凱文(Kevin Lu)、寶潔亞洲(Procter and Gamble Asia)消費市場信息部副總裁吳凱(Berenike Ullmann)、卡特彼勒亞洲(Caterpillar Asia)新加坡總經理傑弗裏•哈迪(Jeffrey Hardee)、依視路(Essilor International)首席執行官帕特里克•謝里耶(Patrick Cherrier)，以及中新天津生態城投資開發有限公司(Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City Investment and Development)副總裁郭寶駿(Kok Poh June)。
In light of recent volatility of the Chinese stock markets, the panellists addressed the diverse challenges and risks involved when investing. But they had a positive outlook and believed that the current turbulence in the Chinese economy is not something to worry about.
鑑於最近中國股市的波動，這些專家談到了投資時遇到的各種挑戰和風險。但他們對前景樂觀，認爲不用擔心中國經濟目前的波動。
While there has been an impact on Chinese business, whether at local or multinational companies, the experts argued the fundamental growth prospects remain unclouded, promising additional demand and further economic growth. Progress is still expected in the “land of the dragon” incomes for Chinese employees over the coming years are likely to double, they said. The Chinese are still big spenders, which boosts the domestic economy, and new jobs will be created, so consumer businesses in particular will have many opportunities. With a growing middle class and rising living standards, the panellists believed the long-term viability of investments in China could be trusted.
儘管在華業務（無論是本國企業還是跨國企業）遭受影響，但專家們表示，基本增長前景依然明朗，有可能帶來額外需求和進一步的經濟增長。他們說，預計“龍之地”仍會發展，中國員工今後幾年的收入可能翻倍。中國人仍然大舉支出，這推動了國內經濟，將會創造新的就業崗位，因此消費者業務尤其具有許多機遇。隨着中產階層日益壯大和居民生活水平提高，專家們相信，在中國長期投資的可行性是可信的。
To back this up, Berenike Ullmann, an expert in the consumer behaviour of the Chinese, outlined their buying habits and the reactions of the country’s economy. While most Chinese prefer to buy local, they also trust western-made products, going to great lengths to buy them. To combat the trend of buying abroad, many local companies strive to improve their manufacturing standards. As a result, Ms Ullman believes China will become even more competitive than it is today, thereby protecting the country’s labour market, improving working conditions and promoting the country’s wealth.
爲了支持這種說法，中國人消費行爲研究專家吳凱概述了他們的購買習慣以及中國經濟的反應。儘管大部分中國人傾向於買國產貨，但他們也信任西方製造的產品，不遺餘力地去購買它們。爲了對抗海外購物熱，許多國內公司努力提高它們的製造標準。結果是，吳凱相信中國未來的競爭力將會比現在更高，從而保護本國的勞動力市場，改善工作環境並促進中國的財富增長。
While stalling growth keeps many global investors awake at night, Patrick Cherrier demonstrates that even only 5 per cent growth in gross domestic product today translates to equal or even greater economic growth in absolute terms than double digit percentage growth 10 years ago.
儘管增長放緩讓許多全球投資者夜不成寐，但帕特里克•謝里耶提出，按絕對值計算，如今國內生產總值中5%的增長相當於十年前的兩位數增長乃至更高。
According to him, the challenges a company faces in China are not all that different from the challenges for other developing markets. Yet China provides many scaling opportunities, supported by government policies that support growth aspirations. Hence, despite its current troubles, investors and multinationals should not shun the country just yet.
謝里耶表示，一家公司在中國面臨的挑戰和在其他發展中市場面臨的挑戰沒有很大不同。然而，中國提供了許多不斷增長的機遇，支持增長目標的政府政策是一個有利因素。因此，儘管當前存在問題，但投資者和跨國企業還不應將中國排除在外。
To conclude, panellists touched on the risk factors that go along with doing business in China, such as the involvement of the government, an ageing population and compliance risks. As most multinationals have identified ways to successfully engage the state and understand the compliance practice, the ageing population poses the most unpredictable threat to the development of the country’s market.
總而言之，專家們談及了在中國做生意伴隨的風險因素，比如政府介入、人口老齡化和合規風險。隨着大多數跨國企業找到了成功與政府打交道的方式並理解了合規實踐，人口老齡化成爲對中國市場發展最爲不可預測的威脅。
