人口暴增 倫敦土地稀缺之殤

Compare two ways of earning the same amount in London. The first is to work. A job in one of the capital’s thriving industries will on average pay about 35,000. The second is to own enough office space for a few desks in the city’s West End. Just 17 sq m currently yields about the same amount.

請比較一下在倫敦賺到相同數額的錢的兩種方式。第一種是工作。在倫敦蓬勃發展的行業找一份工作，平均薪水約爲3.5萬英鎊。第二種是在倫敦西區(West End)擁有一套足夠放幾張桌子的辦公用房。按照最近的行情，只要擁有17平米就能賺到差不多相同數額的錢。

Despite Britain registering deflation for the first time in half a century, its capital remains an expensive place to do business. The overriding cause is expensive property. Even against other global centres, the cost of renting an office or roof over one’s head is steep.

儘管英國剛出現了半個世紀以來的首次通縮，但其首都仍然是一個昂貴的經商地點。最主要的原因是高昂的房地產價格。即使是與全球其他幾個中心相比，在倫敦租賃一間辦公室或住房的成本也相當高昂。

To superficial eyes this is a badge of success. Cities teetering on the brink of failure, such as Detroit, are often studded by boarded-up houses and empty business districts. London can charge so much because it is an excellent place to work. Alongside financial services, the city is a global hub for the creative industries, law and even high-value manufacturing.

表面上看來，這是成功的標誌。底特律等瀕臨破產邊緣的城市中，通常佈滿了木板房和空蕩蕩的商業區。倫敦的租金之所以能收那麼高，是因爲這裏是絕佳的工作地點。除了金融服務，倫敦還是創意產業、法律、甚至高附加值製造業的全球中心。

Yet this high demand to work and live in Britain’s capital only makes more abject its failure to provide sufficient space. What is more, the scarcity of land for development is artificial, and largely comes down to politics.

不過，這種在英國首都工作和居住的高需求，只是使它無法提供足夠空間的問題顯得更加令人遺憾。更重要的是，用於開發的土地稀缺是人爲造成的，而且在很大程度上要歸咎於政治。

The Conservatives sailed into power on a wave of promises that would boost the demand for property, such as inheritance tax breaks and an ill-received idea for selling off social housing. Since the election, developers’ share prices have risen and estate agents’ phones rung hot with inquiries from overseas buyers. Surprised at the scale of their victory, the Tory government might not have expected to enact many of its measures.

保守黨(Conservatives)藉着提振房地產需求的承諾執掌了權力，比如遺產稅優惠和一個令人難以接受的想法——出售公屋。自大選以來，地產開發商的股價一路上漲，房地產經紀人的電話被來電諮詢的海外買家打得發燙。驚訝於此次大獲全勝的保守黨政府，此前也許沒有預料到其要將競選時提出的很多措施付諸實施。

Now, to stop prices spiralling further out of sight the government must supplement its populism with a proper strategy to close the gap between demand and supply, starting with London. It can learn from others’s past failures: the Swedish National Bank tried to quench the roaring property market in Stockholm through its monetary stance, damaging the rest of the economy. Other tools are not available to the UK: Singapore owns 80 per cent of the homes its population inhabits. Like Hong Kong, it imposes restrictions on foreign buyers with which London should be ill at ease.

如今，爲了避免價格進一步攀升至遙不可及的高度，政府必須在民粹主義之外拿出適當的策略來彌合需求和供應之間的差距，從倫敦開始。它可以從其他國家過去的失敗中學到教訓：瑞典央行(Swedish National Bank)曾嘗試通過貨幣政策給斯德哥爾摩飆漲的房地產市場降溫，但損害了經濟的其他部分。還有些工具是英國沒有的：新加坡有80%人口居住在政府提供的組屋裏。再比如香港，那裏限制外國人買房，而倫敦應該無法坦然接受這種做法。

In contrast to Manhattan or Singapore, London is not an island and has no physical reason for limiting the supply of land. But releasing more for development will take courage. Much of the land needed is derelict but nevertheless marked as “greenbelt”. This inspires misguided environmental protectionism from an array of bodies determined to protect every last scrap. Even without such organisation, existing property owners create a fearsome political block. Many of London’s citizens have become wealthy owning houses that are collectively worth 1.5tn. They also savour the rules that bear down on congestion, keep the view uncluttered and hold back the sprawl typical in cities elsewhere. Opposition to development seeds many a political campaign.

與曼哈頓或新加坡相比，倫敦並不是一個島嶼，並沒有必須限制土地供應的客觀原因。但是，釋放更多土地用於開發需要勇氣。很多亟需的土地都是荒地但卻被標記爲“綠地”。這激起了大批被誤導的環保團體的熱情，它們決心保護每一寸僅存的綠地。即使沒有此類機構，現有的房地產業主也構成一個令人望而生畏的政治障礙。很多倫敦市民已變得富有，他們擁有的房產總價值達到1.5萬億英鎊。他們還青睞那些旨在減輕擁堵、保持城市景觀和諧以及阻止城市出現無序擴張常見病的規定。許多政治遊說都源於反對土地開發。

Against these, the victims of insufficient development are voiceless and dispersed: families in cramped accommodation, workers slogging in on a long commute and younger people kept from a promising career by the lack of a wealthy relative. These also feed through to business costs.

相比這些人，承受土地開發不足之痛的人發不出聲音，也缺乏組織：住所狹小的家庭、長途通勤的工人、以及因爲沒有富有的親戚而無法擁有前途光明的職業的年輕人。這些也轉化爲商業成本。

The Conservatives have launched their new spell in government with the aspiration to govern for one nation, and do all they can for business. For the former they will need to heal the fissure in British society caused by the sheer expense of living in London. As for business, no single measure could save companies more than bringing down rents in the capital city.

懷着“爲着同一個國家執政”(govern for one nation)和竭盡全力促進營商的抱負，保守黨已經開始新一屆任期。就前一個抱負而言，他們需要修復倫敦高昂生活成本在英國社會中造成的裂縫。就營商而言，沒有哪一項措施能比降低首都的租金成本更能拯救企業。